The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has published its draft Integrated Systems Plan (ISP) for 2022, which by 2040 sees almost all fossil fuels gone from the grid, leaving only some gas peakers to supplement solar, wind and battery capacity. The Step Change scenario, considered the extreme case in 2020’s ISP, is now being treated as the most likely default set of outcomes. By 2050 the new plan involves Australia’s distributed solar capacity (currently 15.5 GW) increasing five times over while utility-scale renewables increase nine times over. Firming capacity able to respond to a “dispatch signal”, meaning batteries, gas peakers, hydropower, and VPPs, will triple. It’s worth bearing in mind looking at this graph from the ISP that Australia’s population…