President Joe Biden has stated his first emissions reduction target on the first day of his Earth Day summit, which has convened 40 world leaders ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow. Along with the US, both the UK and the EU have also made progress on their targets this week, with combined pledges accounting for 10.4% of today’s global emissions.
Biden’s plan sets out to cut US emissions by 50% to 52% by 2030 against 2005 levels, which will satisfy the largest share of this. Given the absence of any US target enshrined in law so far, that will address a significant chunk of the missing global carbon reductions needed to keep climate change at non-catastrophic levels.
The target, which was announced this morning, appears consistent with Biden’s wider – but as yet unstated – objectives of reaching net zero emissions in the power grid by 2035 and nationwide by 2050. The plan also represents a near-doubling of the pledge made by Barack Obama to cut emissions by between 26% and 28% between 2005 and 2030.
In 2005, the USA was responsible for 5,700 megatons of CO2 emissions, making it the largest contributor to the global total with 21% – it was only overtaken in China in 2006. Between 2005 and 2019, the USA only reduced its emissions by 16%, compared to the EU (excluding UK), where emissions fell by 20%.
The pledge to cut US emissions by 52% by 2030, would account for a 11% reduction in global emissions by 2005 standards, but only 6% from 2019 – due to a rise of 24% of global emissions in that time period and the previous reduction in US emissions.
The news of Biden’s target comes just two days after the UK announced its commitment to reducing its emission by 78% by 2035, compared to levels in 1990 – a goal which would take it over three quarters of the way to its net zero by 2050 target; a milestone which could be reached ahead of schedule.
Announced on Tuesday by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the new target builds on the commitment to reduce emissions by 68% by 2030 and the progress that the UK has made so far; emissions have fallen by 51% between 1990 and 2020 – making the UK the largest proportionate reducer of emissions in this timeframe. It is however worth noting that the UK had among the highest emissions per capita when the 1990 benchmark was set, making reductions comparatively easy.
Given this past reduction, the new UK target accounts for just 0.65% of global emissions in 2019.
The timeframe of the 2035 target suggests that the UK’s plan will be to accelerate the decarbonization of power generation and transport as well as domestic and commercial heating, leaving most of the ‘heavy lifting’ industrial emissions until closer to 2050.
As part of the plan, the UK government also announced that it would include international aviation and shipping within its sixth carbon budget, which will run between 2033 and 2037, which will make it the first major economy to extend climate targets to international flights. Progress towards meeting these targets, however, has been lacking so far; the UK’s Climate Change Committee’s analysis currently projects that targets set in the existing current carbon budgets, which run from 2023 to 2032, will be missed.
This week we also saw the EU come to an agreement on its 55% emission reduction target by 2030, based on 1990 levels, pushing beyond its previous target of 40% in the same timeframe. While falling short of the plans of its pre-Brexit member, the UK, and the hopes of many environmentalists within the bloc, the provisional deal does edge the EU closer towards its ambition of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
While the EU’s economy has grown by 60% over the past three decades, its emissions have fallen by 24%, leaving another 31% to be achieved in the coming ten years; the rate of decarbonization needs to be three-times greater through the 2020s, and the 10% dip seen through Covid-19 will need to be sustained.
The 55% target has been in the works since October, with several lawmakers pursuing a 60% reduction and organizations like Greenpeace lobbying for a 65% target. At its current 55% level, the target itself would account for 6.6% of global emissions in 2019.
Several countries within the EU, however, have not aligned themselves with the 55% target. France, for example, is so far only seeking a 40% reduction between 1990 and 2030, while countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic continue to resist decarbonizing legislation.