Published   Rethink Energy

Floating Solar goes stratospheric once it partners with hydro

Global Forecast in floating solar to 2030

The Floating Solar market is going to emerge far more rapidly than any previous forecast, report or expert has suggested so far, and we could accumulate as much as 62 GW over floating solar globally in as little as 10 years.

The key to that is opening up the market for reservoirs on dams, which will make up over 80% of the global installed marketplace in floating solar by 2030. Huge sums of money are available from development banks to make this happen.

Already we are seeing massive individual projects in China, India and South Korea, which will change the nature of the marketplace to one made up of “mega-scale” GW plus projects, from the commonplace 1 MW projects of today, and a handful of 50 MW to 100 MW deals in the pipeline.

The transition will mean that all of the major solar players, from manufacturers of solar panels, to the global energy firms who have built the largest ground based solar projects, will have to come to the aid of the existing hydro market and potentially tap the handful of start-ups who have floating solar for know-how. Already this segment has a 10 GW pipeline and its key drivers are set to change from expensive land prices, to seeking higher baseloads for central energy suppliers chasing hydro-solar hybrids.

The run rate for floating solar projects will move from around 300 MW a year globally, to 9.4 GW in 2030, with some 8 GW of that all about adding solar capabilities to existing hydro reservoirs. The other 1.4 GW annually will come from two other sources, the existing “lakes” business which taps anything from drinking water reservoirs, mining ponds, industrial parks and water treatment or waste sites; and thirdly from tropical sea courses – harbors, estuaries, ports, seawalls – where waves are below 1 meter all year round.

The forecast breaks down the market by these three sub-markets, and by multiple global regions, and identifies the earliest markets to emerge. China will be the market leader with projects rising slowly to top out at around 3.1 GW per annum around 2030 and cumulative dam reservoir floating solar reaching 22.9 GW, while the second largest market, the rest of Asia Pacific will peak at 2.5 GW a year for just this one segment of the market.

Companies mentioned in this report;

Akuo Energy,, BBR Greentech, Canadian Commercial Corp, CECEP, Chip Mong Insee Cement, Ciel & Terre, DEME, Da Nhim–Ham Thuan–Da Mi Hydro Power, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Electricidade de Mozambique, Energy Bank Japan, Eni New Energy, Eskom, Ghent University, Greater Visakhapatnam Smart City, Greenam Energy, GroenLeven, Isigenere, Jan De Nul Group, LONGi Solar, Marin, NRG Island, Nofar Energy, Ocean Sun, Pro Floating, Scotra, Seaflex Global, Soltech, South Korea’s MITIE, Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore, Sri Lanka Ministry of Power and Energy, Sungrow, Sunlution, Statkraft, Tata Solar Power, Tractebel, Vector Group, Vikram Solar, X-Elio, Zimfloat

Who should Buy this Report?

This report should be purchased by anyone associated with the solar supply chain, from panel makers to developers to EPC to energy companies and investors. The investment opportunity alone will lead to new specialist investors who move fastest to onboard the skills to assess projects properly.

This report will;

Help you re-evaluate the potential size of the floating solar market

Put the three sub-markets into perspective for your project team

Identify the market leaders in floating solar today and in the future

Identify the shift in skills from ground solar to floating solar

Rethink has mapped advanced large scale projects mostly associated with dam reservoirs (but with some in the sea) throughout Asia – China is the most prominent, but also India, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Hong Kong, the entire Pearl delta at Macau in China.

Floating Solar deals

Below is a list of floating solar deals made in the last two years from Rethink’s “Deals Database” (full access to the almost 2,000 deals contained in this database is included to any customer who buys this report).

For more information contact:

Natalia Szczepanek

Client Relations and Marketing Manager

[email protected]

Office phone: +44 (0)1179 257019

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Contents 2

Graphs and tables 3

Introduction 4

The Major Opportunity on modern dams 6

What is so good about a dam? 6

The benefits of floating solar 8

Seas, harbors, ports and estuaries 11

Lakes and other static bodies of water on land 12

Global floating solar markets 14

China – Dam Reservoir floating solar 16

China – Harbors, Estuaries and Ports 17

China – Floating solar on Lakes 18

Rest of Asia Pacific 19

Floating Solar in Latin America 22

Latin America – Estuaries, Harbors and Ports 24

Latin America – Lakes 24

Middle East and Africa 25

Europe 27

Europe – Estuaries, Harbors and Ports 28

Europe – Lakes 28

North America 29

Floating Solar deals 30

Forecasting investment possibilities across renewables 32

Contributors and contacts 33

About Rethink Technology Research 34


Global cumulative floating solar capacity forecast by region by 2030 14

Total Global floating solar forecast to 2030 15

Global dam reservoir floating solar to 2030 15

Growth of dam reservoir floating solar to 2030 in China 16

China floating solar in harbors and estuaries to 2030 17

China – Growth in lake based floating solar to 2030 18

Rest of Asia Pacific cumulative floating solar on Dam reservoirs to 2030 20

Rest of Asia Pacific – Floating Solar in estuaries and harbors to 2030 21

Rest of Asia – cumulative Floating Solar in estuaries and harbors to 2030 21

Rest of Asia Pacific – Lakes floating solar to 2030 22

Rest of Asia Pacific – Lakes floating solar to 2030 22

Latin America cumulative floating solar on dam reservoirs 2030 23

Latin America – Growth in Lakes based floating solar to 2030 24

Middle East Africa – cumulative floating solar dam reservoirs by 2030 26

European dam reservoir floating solar to 2030 27

European floating solar on lakes to 2030 29

Floating Solar deals 30

Floating Solar deals 31