Global Forecast in floating solar to 2030
The Floating Solar market is going to emerge far more rapidly than any previous forecast, report or expert has suggested so far, and we could accumulate as much as 62 GW over floating solar globally in as little as 10 years.
The key to that is opening up the market for reservoirs on dams, which will make up over 80% of the global installed marketplace in floating solar by 2030. Huge sums of money are available from development banks to make this happen.
Already we are seeing massive individual projects in China, India and South Korea, which will change the nature of the marketplace to one made up of “mega-scale” GW plus projects, from the commonplace 1 MW projects of today, and a handful of 50 MW to 100 MW deals in the pipeline.
The transition will mean that all of the major solar players, from manufacturers of solar panels, to the global energy firms who have built the largest ground based solar projects, will have to come to the aid of the existing hydro market and potentially tap the handful of start-ups who have floating solar for know-how. Already this segment has a 10 GW pipeline and its key drivers are set to change from expensive land prices, to seeking higher baseloads for central energy suppliers chasing hydro-solar hybrids.
The run rate for floating solar projects will move from around 300 MW a year globally, to 9.4 GW in 2030, with some 8 GW of that all about adding solar capabilities to existing hydro reservoirs. The other 1.4 GW annually will come from two other sources, the existing “lakes” business which taps anything from drinking water reservoirs, mining ponds, industrial parks and water treatment or waste sites; and thirdly from tropical sea courses – harbors, estuaries, ports, seawalls – where waves are below 1 meter all year round.
The forecast breaks down the market by these three sub-markets, and by multiple global regions, and identifies the earliest markets to emerge. China will be the market leader with projects rising slowly to top out at around 3.1 GW per annum around 2030 and cumulative dam reservoir floating solar reaching 22.9 GW, while the second largest market, the rest of Asia Pacific will peak at 2.5 GW a year for just this one segment of the market.
Companies mentioned in this report;
Akuo Energy, BayWa.re., BBR Greentech, Canadian Commercial Corp, CECEP, Chip Mong Insee Cement, Ciel & Terre, DEME, Da Nhim–Ham Thuan–Da Mi Hydro Power, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Electricidade de Mozambique, Energy Bank Japan, Eni New Energy, Eskom, Ghent University, Greater Visakhapatnam Smart City, Greenam Energy, GroenLeven, Isigenere, Jan De Nul Group, LONGi Solar, Marin, NRG Island, Nofar Energy, Ocean Sun, Pro Floating, Scotra, Seaflex Global, Soltech, South Korea’s MITIE, Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore, Sri Lanka Ministry of Power and Energy, Sungrow, Sunlution, Statkraft, Tata Solar Power, Tractebel, Vector Group, Vikram Solar, X-Elio, Zimfloat
Who should Buy this Report?
This report should be purchased by anyone associated with the solar supply chain, from panel makers to developers to EPC to energy companies and investors. The investment opportunity alone will lead to new specialist investors who move fastest to onboard the skills to assess projects properly.
This report will;
Help you re-evaluate the potential size of the floating solar market
Put the three sub-markets into perspective for your project team
Identify the market leaders in floating solar today and in the future
Identify the shift in skills from ground solar to floating solar
Rethink has mapped advanced large scale projects mostly associated with dam reservoirs (but with some in the sea) throughout Asia – China is the most prominent, but also India, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Hong Kong, the entire Pearl delta at Macau in China.
Floating Solar deals
Below is a list of floating solar deals made in the last two years from Rethink’s “Deals Database” (full access to the almost 2,000 deals contained in this database is included to any customer who buys this report).
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