Ten year forecast; bright future
Floating Wind platforms will begin to deliver multiple Gigawatts of electrical power by 2024, and will accelerate to as much as 18.9 GW of capacity by 2030. This is the conclusion of a new Rethink Technology Research report from its Rethink Energy service, the first such forecast, entitled “Floating Wind on the verge of liftoff – Ten year forecast; bright future.”
After more than a decade of hard work, Wind Turbines on Floating Platforms are about to come into their own. Our forecast has a potential span of between 11.8 GW up to that impressive 18.9 GW. We believe that higher figure is more likely.
The area of doubt is the speed of adoption to full scale among the many well known regions which are currently demonstrating floating wind or planning to. By 2035 we are pretty sure that all projects will have been caught up and the market place will reach 28 GW of capacity, and that by 2030 the LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) for floating wind will be down to just over $44 (US dollars) per MWh.
Early markets will include the UK, France, Portugal, Japan, the US, South Korea and Taiwan but we anticipate delays as no-one wants to be the pioneer with arrows in his or her back. All of these initial major programs are supposed to be complete by 2030, but Rethink anticipates a slow adoption towards government inspired capacity targets.
Initially only three or four floating platforms will be sufficiently well established to make projects “proceedable” with many firing the starting gun in 2020 and 2021.
There will be a four or five year delay before the early pioneers on Floating Wind are caught by regional upstarts and later designs, giving them ample time to repay the costs of researching this area ahead of the market and captivating significant market share.
The Levelized Cost of Energy for this technology should be competitive with offshore wind with fixed foundations in the 2026/7 timeframe, with the result that a massive rethink from one platform to the other will begin, taking this market into the stratosphere.
Companies mentioned in this report;
Algonquin Power Fund, Alpha Wind Energy, Ampyx Power, Avangrid, Bouygues Travaux Publics, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Caisse des Dépôts et Consignation, Calicya, Castle Wind, CGN Europe, Cierco Corp, Cobra, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, EC&R Development, EDF Renewables, EDP Renewables, Energy Infra Asset Management, E.ON, Eolfi, Equinor, European Marine Energy Centre, Febus Optics, FlowOcean, Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems, Furukawa Electric, GE Renewables, Green Investment Group, Hexicon, Hitachi, Iberdrola, Ideol, Japan Marine United, Korea National Oil, Kraken Subsea, Principle Power, Macquarie, Mainstream Renewable Power, Marubeni, MHI Vestas, Mission Floating Wind, Mitsubishi, Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding, Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Naval Energies, Nippon Steel, Northcoast Floating Wind, Northland Power, Ørsted, Redwood Coast Energy, Saipem, SeaTwirl, Shell, Shimizu Corp, Siemens Gamesa, Société Générale, South Korea Engineering and Construction, Sumitomo Metal, Taiwan Power, Unitech Offshore, University of Tokyo, Wind Power Korea, WPD Offshore, Yushan Energy
Who should Buy this Report?
The report “Floating Wind on the verge of liftoff – Ten year forecast; bright future” is for developers, turbine and floating platform suppliers, investors engineering firms and energy operators at strategy formulation level.
This report will;
- Tell you where floating wind platforms will first take off
- Give you a feel for how rapidly they will do so
- Isolate future geographical markets where floating wind is not yet an option
- It will give a firm grip on timescales, obstacles and potential rewards
- To some extent it will predict winners and losers in this market
The report will show how long a lead well established floating platforms have, and how long it will be before fresh designs begin to infiltrate the market.
We have also given an indicative forecast for Levelized Cost of Energy for floating wind over the coming ten years, showing where it is likely to intercept offshore wind with fixed foundations.
This report was put together with contributions and explanations from a number of companies, but in particular we would like to thank Principle Power for its insights into the market place.
For more information contact:
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
Office phone: +44 (0)1179 257019
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