Published   Rethink Energy

Floating Wind on the verge of liftoff

Ten year forecast; bright future

Floating Wind platforms will begin to deliver multiple Gigawatts of electrical power by 2024, and will accelerate to as much as 18.9 GW of capacity by 2030. This is the conclusion of a new Rethink Technology Research report from its Rethink Energy service, the first such forecast, entitled “Floating Wind on the verge of liftoff – Ten year forecast; bright future.”

After more than a decade of hard work, Wind Turbines on Floating Platforms are about to come into their own. Our forecast has a potential span of between 11.8 GW up to that impressive 18.9 GW. We believe that higher figure is more likely.

The area of doubt is the speed of adoption to full scale among the many well known regions which are currently demonstrating floating wind or planning to. By 2035 we are pretty sure that all projects will have been caught up and the market place will reach 28 GW of capacity, and that by 2030 the LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) for floating wind will be down to just over $44 (US dollars) per MWh.

Early markets will include the UK, France, Portugal, Japan, the US, South Korea and Taiwan but we anticipate delays as no-one wants to be the pioneer with arrows in his or her back. All of these initial major programs are supposed to be complete by 2030, but Rethink anticipates a slow adoption towards government inspired capacity targets.

Initially only three or four floating platforms will be sufficiently well established to make projects “proceedable” with many firing the starting gun in 2020 and 2021.

There will be a four or five year delay before the early pioneers on Floating Wind are caught by regional upstarts and later designs, giving them ample time to repay the costs of researching this area ahead of the market and captivating significant market share.

The Levelized Cost of Energy for this technology should be competitive with offshore wind with fixed foundations in the 2026/7 timeframe, with the result that a massive rethink from one platform to the other will begin, taking this market into the stratosphere.

Companies mentioned in this report;

Algonquin Power Fund, Alpha Wind Energy, Ampyx Power, Avangrid, Bouygues Travaux Publics, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Caisse des Dépôts et Consignation, Calicya, Castle Wind, CGN Europe, Cierco Corp, Cobra, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, EC&R Development, EDF Renewables, EDP Renewables, Energy Infra Asset Management, E.ON, Eolfi, Equinor, European Marine Energy Centre, Febus Optics, FlowOcean, Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems, Furukawa Electric, GE Renewables, Green Investment Group, Hexicon, Hitachi, Iberdrola, Ideol, Japan Marine United, Korea National Oil, Kraken Subsea, Principle Power, Macquarie, Mainstream Renewable Power, Marubeni, MHI Vestas, Mission Floating Wind, Mitsubishi, Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding, Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Naval Energies, Nippon Steel, Northcoast Floating Wind, Northland Power, Ørsted, Redwood Coast Energy, Saipem, SeaTwirl, Shell, Shimizu Corp, Siemens Gamesa, Société Générale, South Korea Engineering and Construction, Sumitomo Metal, Taiwan Power, Unitech Offshore, University of Tokyo, Wind Power Korea, WPD Offshore, Yushan Energy

Who should Buy this Report?

The report “Floating Wind on the verge of liftoff – Ten year forecast; bright future” is for developers, turbine and floating platform suppliers, investors engineering firms and energy operators at strategy formulation level.

This report will;

  • Tell you where floating wind platforms will first take off
  • Give you a feel for how rapidly they will do so
  • Isolate future geographical markets where floating wind is not yet an option
  • It will give a firm grip on timescales, obstacles and potential rewards
  • To some extent it will predict winners and losers in this market

The report will show how long a lead well established floating platforms have, and how long it will be before fresh designs begin to infiltrate the market.

We have also given an indicative forecast for Levelized Cost of Energy for floating wind over the coming ten years, showing where it is likely to intercept offshore wind with fixed foundations.

This report was put together with contributions and explanations from a number of companies, but in particular we would like to thank Principle Power for its insights into the market place.

For more information contact:

Natalia Szczepanek

Client Relations and Marketing Manager

[email protected]

Office phone: +44 (0)1179 257019

Download the Executive Summary:

Executive Summary Download

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Rethink Energy subscription is made up of a weekly newsletter, a database of renewable deals – updated weekly, and 6 forecasts a year. It costs $3,800 for an individual license and $5,100 for a corporate license.

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Contents 2Graphs and Tables 3Introduction 4Floating Wind on the verge of liftoff .Ten year forecast; bright future 5Our approach to this Forecast 7Key Countries 10

Europe 10

North America 15

Latin America 17

Middle East and Africa 19

Asia Pacific 19

Floating Platforms 26

Forecasts for Global Floating Wind Capacity 29

European Forecasts 33

North America Forecasts 35

Latin America Forecasts 37

Asia Pacific Forecasts—China 39

Middle East and Africa Forecasts 41

LCOE development for floating wind 42

Forecasting investment possibilities across renewables 43

Subscription costs 43

Contributors and contacts 44

About Rethink Technology Research 45

Floating Platforms 26Aflowt; FloatGen FloatOcean; Hexicon 26Hywind; SeaTwirl 27WindFloat 28Global Floating Wind Capacity by region 30Optimistic Forecast – Global Total Floating Wind Capacity in MW by 2030 31

Global Market Share of Floating Wind 2030 31

Global Floating Wind capacity in MW 32

Optimistic Global Total forecast Floating Wind Capacity in MW to 2030 32

Floating Wind in MW Europe by country in 2030 33

Optimistic Forecast – Floating Wind in MW Europe by country by 2030 33

Total Floating Wind Capacity Forecast Europe in MW 34

Optimistic Forecast – Total Floating Wind Capacity Europe in MW 34

Forecast Floating Wind Capacity in MW North America to 2030 35

North American Floating Wind Capacity in MW 35

Optimistic Forecast North America Floating Wind Capacity in MW in 2030 36

North America Floating Wind Capacity Optimistic Forecast in MW in 2030 36

Floating Wind in Latin America by Country in MW to 2030 37

Total Floating Wind Capacity in Latin America in MW to 2030 37

Optimistic Forecast MW of Floating Wind Capacity Latin America by region to 2030 38

Optimistic Forecast – Latin America Floating Wind Capacity in MW to 2030 38

Floating Wind Capacity forecast by country in MW Asia Pacific by 2030 39

Optimistic forecast – Floating Wind Capacity by region Asia Pacific in MW by 2030 39

Total Floating Wind Capacity forecast Asia Pacific to 2030 40

Optimistic Forecast – Total Capacity in MW Floating Wind Asia Pacific by 2030 40

Floating Wind Capacity Forecast in MW to 2030 Middle East Africa 41

The Global average LCOE $ per MWh for floating wind platforms 42