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Streaming – just a few years from overtaking global pay TV

Global Streaming forecasts 2017 to 2022

This is a five year forecast on Global streaming.  Rethink has tracked 280 streaming operators in 40 countries for this report and reported their SVoD subscribers alongside TV Everywhere regular users and found that towards the end of this 5 year forecast a combination of SVoD subscriptions and TV Everywhere users will reach 745 million customers in those 40 countries alone – something very close to the global pay TV market in unit numbers. Today there are 1 billion pay TV customers, but they are likely to enter a decline from their peak by 2022 and that decline is already visible in the US.

SVoD will grow at just 9% CAGR to reach 476 million subscribers by the end of 2022, and TV Everywhere regular users (more than one visit a week) will reach 269 million. The US will remain the strongest SVoD region with 236 million subscribers, just over 50%, but TV Everywhere usage will be strongest in Europe, while Asia Pacific will dominate Advertising VoD, with over 1 billion accounts in China alone. AVoD was not counted in this forecast.

To scale up SVoD number to the entire globe “Other countries” contribute a further 15% to the figure we have published, which makes 547 million SVoD customers globally across more than 200 countries and takes the total globally to 816 million, very close to overtaking pay TV.

Just as we finished this report Netflix ended 2017 with a surprise for investors and followers of OTT video, leaping ahead of expectations and beginning to talk about where its next 100 million customers will come from.

As a result its share price jumped 25% – almost, but not quite putting it out of reach of an Apple takeover – something rumored just weeks before the results.

Our forecast globally for Netflix takes it to over 184 million subscribers by the end of 2022, which would result in revenues of $18.8 billion of revenues on a significantly higher margin than today. Its value will approach $200 billion by then, making it one of the most powerful companies in the US stock market. around a third the size of the market capitalization of Apple and just behind the current value of AT&T.  And yet in the US Netflix will fall behind the number of subscribers that actively watch Amazon Prime video by 2020, although Netflix will make more money from its video activities.

Who should buy this report?

This report is critical to anyone involved in planning technology strategy for streaming products or services, as well as operators, partners, implementers, equipment suppliers, software providers and investors in any of the above, at C Suite level down to product marketing and product planning.

Methodology

Rethink established all of the numbers in this report either from public sources, speaking to individuals associated with the service, or by extrapolating from publicly known figures. Where there was no discussion to investors of the streaming numbers, we have assumed an OTT uptake profile from a similar sized company or rival in the same region, where we have such data. We accept that the TVE numbers are estimates in most instances based on anecdotal mentions in the press by senior executives. In each case we have discounted or added to uptake rates taken from rivals, based on how well publicized the offering was and how much competition it has in the local market place, and the current penetration of OTT delivered video services.

Rethink will use the spreadsheets generated for this report to forecast a number of technologies throughout the year.

For more information contact:

Chloe Spring (Marketing Manager): [email protected]

Office Phone: +44 (0)1179 257019

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Methodology  3

Streaming just a few years from overtaking pay TV   4

Conclusion and Global Data   10

Global TV Everywhere Forecasts  13

Region by Region   14

North America  14

Europe   17

Latin America   21

Latin America SVoD 22

Asia Pacific   23

SVoD in AsiaPac  24

About Rethink Technology Research 26

Contact Details   26

Diagrams and Graphs

Global OTT Summary  10

TV Everywhere   10

SVoD   10

Netflix subscriber growth forecast   11

Netflix subscriber estimate and forecast    12

US SVoD only  12

Global TV Everywhere estimate by region   13

US SVoD market share 2022     14

TV Everywhere  Regular usage in the US    15

TV Everywhere market share Canada  16

European TV Everywhere by 2022    18

European SVoD subs by country in 2022   19

European SVoD subscribers by 2022   20

Latin America TV Everywhere subscribers by country   21

Total SVoD Latin America by 2022  22

Total TV Everywhere in Asia Pacific  2017 – 2022  23

Total TVE Asia  Pacific by country by 2022    23

 

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