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How to survive the Set Top Box endgame – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Free Download

Android TV to dominate set tops, trade war shuts door on China

After a decade of predictions that the set top was on its last legs, the endgame is in sight – but far from dying overnight, over the next five years what operators seem to be planning is a dramatic reduction in the list of video operating systems. This is all spelled out in a new report from Rethink Technology Research entitled “How to survive the Set Top Box endgame.”

Android TV, RDK and a handful of other specialist smart TV OSs will come to the fore, mostly at the expense of generic Linux variants, plus a new entry out of China as the US China trade war eliminates what would have been dominance there on Android in favor of Huawei’s Harmony, which will eventually make the transition from Smart TV OS, to full bloodied set tops.

On pure set tops globally Android will reign supreme and make huge gains in Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Although Android will score in North America, it will be held at bay by the resolute rock of RDK, increasingly dominant in the cable sector.

We believe that Android TV will surge to the top of the leaderboard with 24% of global pay TV subscriptions. In North America Android will meet stiff resistance from RDK which will take 57% of set top OS subs.

Meanwhile Huawei’s HarmonyOS will become a major force in China, not due to its merits, but due to China needing independence from US toolsets. It will take 28% of set top OSs there, against 14% still going to Android TV, and in the rest of Asia Android’s progress will only be held in check by proprietary OSs of big two, Samsung and LG, at least on smart TVs. HarmonyOS will also take 75% of China’s smart TV OS market by 2025.

Android’s rise in absolute numbers will be highest in Asia Pacific, where it jumps all the way to 161 million. While in China it will grow from 2.1 million set tops in 2018 to 70.7 million by 2025. In Europe it will rise to 42.9 million in the same time frame.

By the recent addition of a viable app store from Metrological, RDK is set to hold ground in the US and Canada, even as Android begins to make inroads there alongside it, at smaller operators and Telcos.

Very few smart TV brands have so far adopted Android TV for their operating environment, but it will make further inroads, as will China’s native Harmony OS.

This report is part of the Rethink TV series of reports, the research arm of Faultline, part of Rethink Technology Research Limited.

Who should read this report and what should they get out of it?

This report is vital for anyone who helps make strategic decisions for a pay TV operator, or for any company supplying the hardware and software marketplace around pay TV.

This includes strategy planners, device specifiers, service managers in operators, as well as vendor personnel in marketing and product management and investors, as well as C-Suite support teams and individuals.

This report will show how the eventual global outcome for every type of software operates as a video operating system, from Android TV and Apple TV at the low end, to RDK and specialist Linux boxes at the top end, and it analyzes the role China has to play, and ow the US Chinese trade war will affect the set top business. This report will change your economic outlook for manufacturers of set tops and DVRs. If you operate in this segment or close to it you need this report.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Altice, Amazon, America Movil, Android, Apple, Arris, AT&T, Bharti Airtel, Bourges Telecom, BT, Canal+, Calbevision, Charter, CBS, CenturyLink, Comcast, CommScope, Cox, Cyfrowy Polsat, DAZN, Deutsche Telekom, Dish D2H, Disney+, ER Telecom, ESPN, Fox, Google, Grupo Televisa, HBO, Huawei, Humax, Iliad, KDDI, Korea Telecom, LG, LG Uplus, Liberty Global, Linux Foundation, MEASAT, Multichoice, Netflix, NTT Docomo, Orange, Peacock, Pluto TV, Reliance Jio, Rogers, Roku, Rostelecom, Samsung, Shaw, SoftAtHome, Sun Direct, Tata Sky, Telecom Argentina, Telefonica, Time Warner, TiVo, Tricolor, Tubi TV, UPC, Verizon, Viacom, Vodafone, VTR

For more information contact:

Natalia Szczepanek (Client Relations and Marketing Manager): [email protected]

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Contents 2

Graphs and Tables 3

Snapshot  4

Executive  Summary                      4

Smart TV Angle                        7

Global Pay TV Prospects                      8

North America Discussion                      10

North America Smart TV Scene                    12

European Dimension                      13

European Smart TV                        16

China’s Scene                        17

Chinese Smart TV Sector                      18

Asia Pacific                          19

Asia Pacific Smart TVs                      21

Latin America                        22

Latin America Smart TVs                      23

Conclusion                          25

Methodology                          26

Rethink TV: Forecasting disruption in video                27

Contributors                          28

About Rethink Technology Research                  29


Android Set Tops By Region                   5

RDK Set Tops By Region                         6

Global Smart TV OS 2018                      7

Global Smart TV OS 2025                      7

Pay TV Regional Totals                      8

Global Set Top Shares ex China 2020                  9

Global Set Top Shares ex China 2025                  9

Top 20 Operators Set Top OS                    10

North America Set Top OS Shares 2020                  12

North America Set Top OS Shares 2025                  12

Smart TV OS North America                    13

Europe Set Top OS Shares 2020                    15

Europe Set Top OS Shares2025                    15

Smart TV OS Europe                      16

China Set Top OS Shares 2020                    18

China Set Top OS Shares 2025                    18

Smart TV OS China                        19

AsiaPac Set Top OS Shares 2020                    21

AsiaPac Set Top OS Shares 2025                    21

Smart Tv AsiaPac ex China                    22

Latam Set Top OS Shares 2020                    23

Latam Set Top OS Shares 2025                    23

Smart TV Latam                        24