Rethink Energy’s Perovskite Forecast to 2040 is the culmination of 4 years of extensively tracking developments in the perovskite market.

The report finds that perovskite solar modules are set to reach GW-scale manufacturing from 2028, taking over the entire industry by 2040. Today we see a constant stream of trial commercial shipments, and that tandem modules have reached parity with silicon on lifetime power output – with huge room for further upgrades on lifespan and efficiency. 

This means that solar’s price declines and quality improvements haven’t reached a plateau – the solar levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is going to keep improving through 2040 and beyond.

It will take many years of manufacturing expansions to catch up with the scale of the general solar industry – but specific market segments will be transformed or even created by perovskites, in particular rooftop solar.  

Tandem modules, combining silicon and perovskite layers – to reach both higher efficiencies and higher lifetime power output values than conventional silicon can achieve – will be big in the US, with tariffs and subsidies helping the new technology to be adopted in the face of China’s ultra-cheap products. And tandems will become the dominant form of solar manufacturing worldwide in the 2030s – replacing and assimilating the silicon industry.

Perovskite Solar Forecast to 2040, includes:

• 30 page PDF report, illustrated with graphs and charts
• XLS dataset: Installation Scale; Lifespan & Efficiency; and Module Types & Manufacturing

Companies Mentioned:  

First Solar, GCL Systems Integration, Utmolight, Microquanta, Caelux, Oxford PV, Hanwha Q Cells, Jinko Solar, Swift Solar, Meyer Burger, Saule Technologies, Halocell, Borealis Group, Energy Materials Corporation, Saule Technologies, Power Roll, Cosmos Innovation, Tandem PV

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