Global Cinema Market – Forecast to 2023
In a world where SVoD flourishes, can the Cinema survive?
“Obviously it makes sense for studios to work towards a balanced portfolio between original work for SVoDs and movies intended for Cinema release. There is much evidence that all the major studios are already doing this.”
While the entertainment world throws itself and its considerable resources at the creation of Original Content, little thought has been given to what effect this will have on the traditional distribution route to market for movies i.e. the Cinema.
Obviously, it makes sense for studios to work towards a balanced portfolio between original work for SVoDs and movies intended for Cinema release. There is much evidence that all the major studios are already doing this.
This is a bit like global warming – you know that if you release too much Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere something bad will happen, but how much can you get away with? Similarly, we know that releasing multiple tens of $ billions into Original Content which ONLY comes to market via SVoD, must disrupt the existing Cinema supply chain, but by when? So far studios are forced to chase both forms of revenue – Cinema based and SVoD based – and appear to believe that both revenue streams are unrelated and will not affect one another. At least not yet.
At Rethink TV we believe that the rules became clear in 2016 when increasing spend on Original Content exacerbated an already nervous Cinema market, and visitors began to plummet. Box office has just about held up, for now, but what happens next.
What this report will tell you:
1. How rapidly attendance at the Cinema is falling and how this will accelerate
2. Tie up these visitor falls with SVoD content spend in a working hypothesis
3. Navigates limits to Ticket price rises at Cinemas
4. Shows how box office in China will grind to a halt inside 5 years
5. And show how much revenue Live content at Cinemas needs to provide
6. Shows that Original content spend will grow by 4X in 5 years and in the process suck some of the oxygen from the movie format
Companies mentioned in this report:
Alibaba, Amazon, AMC, Apple, Baidu (iQiyi), China Film Group, Cineworld, Cinemark, Disney, ESPN, Facebook, HBO, Huaxia Film Distribution, Imax, International Union of Cinemas, Motion Picture Association of America, Nagra, Netflix, Regal, Tencent Video
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