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Published   Rethink TV Forecasts

Virtualization to capture 500 million fixed broadband customers by 2025

Global Forecast on Virtualized Broadband

A boom in virtualization of fixed broadband access infrastructure is developing and will sweep through almost all connections over the next decade, passing the 500 million mark in 2025. That will be 40% of the total 1.26 billion global broadband subscriber base by then, compared with just 0.48% at the end of 2018 and 2.58% now at the start of 2020. These findings have just been reported by Rethink TV, the research arm of Rethink Technologies Research, in its latest report, Broadband Virtualization Accelerates to 500 million connections By 2025.

Except for Africa, virtualization will proceed at a similar pace in all regions with relatively little difference between the telco and rather smaller cable broadband sectors. This reflects virtualization being universally recognized as essential to contain costs and boost efficiencies in a cutthroat broadband market that has become the lifeblood for both cable cos and telcos. With voice alone no longer generating much revenue and margins for video squeezed to around 15% in North America and Europe, broadband continues to deliver 60% or more. This is intensifying competition in the broadband space and driving operators towards virtualization to defend those generous margins.

Most operators deployed broadband over their existing infrastructure, which was originally developed for TV in the case of cable cos and voice followed by dial up data for telcos. That infrastructure has evolved to higher speeds through technical advances in terminating equipment and increased penetration of fiber, but is now running out of road for further improvements and is inhibiting new services for the digital home. This is provoking the impending virtualization which is only just beginning or yet to for most operators. The pace will pick up during 2020 and continue to increase over the next five years, running at over 9% of total connections per annum by 2025.

While Comcast on the cable side and telco Deutsche Telekom will be among the strongest early adopters, many operators in developing countries  across Asia Pacific and Latin America will be not far behind as they deploy virtualized equipment, expanding footprint and as part of the replacement cycle. In fact some developing countries will be among the leaders, with Indonesia on course to virtualize 63% of its connections by 2025, a considerably higher proportion than the USA on 42.8% with a greater encumbrance of legacy.

The Rethink TV report has counted broadband and virtualized broadband connections for 127 principal operators in 34 major countries, while aggregating the rest to obtain complete regional and global totals. These allow the cable and telco sectors to be compared, as well as all the main countries, yielding valuable insights over rate of virtualization during the next five years at greater granularity than any survey to date.

Who should read this report and what should they get out of it?

This report is essential reading for anyone involved in taking decisions around fixed broadband infrastructure, but also for businesses, such as streaming video providers, who rely on broadband lines for product delivery. It will also help mobile operator personnel who wish to consider a broadband network for backhaul.

The report will give you a crystal clear picture of the pressures and progress of fixed line broadband providers who are striving to lower their costs, and adopt technologies which give them a flexible market position.

This report is critical to anyone involved in planning a broadband network which many include pay TV operators, telcos or their equipment and software suppliers and investors, at C Suite level down to strategic marketing and planning.

This report will give you;

Numbers you can drop directly into a spreadsheet for planning purposes and provide a full understanding of strategies you may adopt to get involved in global broadband evolution.

Companies mentioned in this report:

ADTRAN, America Movil , AT&T, Bezeq, Brocade, BSNL, BT, CableLabs, Calix, CenturyLink, Charter, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Cisco, Claro, Comcast, CommScope, Cox Communications, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Groupo Clarin, Grupo Televisa, Harmonic, Huawei, Jio Fiber Broadband, Juniper Networks, KDDI, Korea Telecom,  LG Uplus, Liberty Global, Megacable, Net Servicos, Nokia, NTT Docomo, Oi, Orange France, SFR, SK Broadband, Sky UK, Softbank, Telecom Italia, Telecom Egypt, Telefonica, Televisa, Telmex, Turk Telecom, Verizon, Virgin Media, VMWare, Vodafone Kabel Deutschland, ZTE

Download Executive Summary:

Download a copy of the executive summary

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Contents    2

Graphs and Tables   3

Snapshot                      4

Executive Summary                      5

Geographical Dimension                      8

Europe                        11

Asia Pacific                        13

Latin America                      17

Rest of world                      19

Market Analysis                        20

Conclusion                          26

Rethink TV: Forecasting disruption in video              27

Contributors                        28

About Rethink Technology Research                  29

 

Virtual Broadband Subs by region  6

Virtual Broadband Top 10 countries by number of connections 2025        7

Virtual Broadband Global Top 8 Countries by % of Total Connections by 2025    7

Broadband Subs by Region                    8

Broadband Subs North America Top 5 2018                9

Broadband Subs North America Top 5 2025                10

Virtualized Broadband subs North America 2025              10

Europe’s Top 6 for broadband subs                  12

Virtual Broadband Subs Europe Top 8 2025               12

Virtual Broadband Europe’s Fastest 6 Risers by 2025            13

Broadband Subs China Top 3 2018                  14

Broadband Subs China Top 3 2025                  14

Broadband Subs Asia Pac ex China Top 6                15

Virtual Broadband Subs Total Asia Pac Top 9 2025            15

Virtual Broadband Asia Pac Top 6 Countries ex China by 2025          16

Broadband subs Latam Top 6                    18

Virtual Broadband Latam Top 5 Countries by 2025            18

Virtual Broadband Subs Latam Top 7 2025                19

Cable v Telco broadband subs worldwide 2018              20

Cable v Telco broadband subs worldwide 2025              21

Virtualized broadband subs cable v telco worldwide            26

 

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