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Rethink Energy Research

Rethink Energy is the only service specifically designed to explain and forecast the changing energy landscape and its investment possibilities as renewables begin to take over from conventional fossil fuels

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    Rethink Energy is about rethinking not only the technologies which lay behind energy generation and storage, but also about the business models and route to market for an entire fledgling industry. The fossil fuel industry is a tough competitor and lobbies governments with unlimited funds, and positions poisonous short termism as the ONLY way forward. The era in which it questions the existence of man made climate change is over, this is the era of what we do about it and who makes money out of the process.

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9 July 2020

Quarterly solar tracking service and annual forecast: China and India slowed to a solar crawl in Q1, USA also hit wall

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    Quarter 1 of 2020 has been a particularly lousy installation period for solar panels with only one quarter in the past 9, being lower with just 15.8 GW getting installed. The only quarter below this level was in Q3 2019, when China previously installed a record low for the past 5 years.

    Rethink Energy has collated the figures for solar developments in the first quarter of 2020, based on government and other sources. The sixteen most important global markets have been covered in detail, amounting to about 70% of global installations.

    Those sixteen countries installed just 15.8 GW this quarter, a little more than half of the 31.6 GW installed in the immediately prior quarter, and 1.2 GW less than this quarter a year ago. All of this is placed at the door of Coronavirus, but its impact will likely fall even more heavily in Q2.

    This report is crucial for management and team leaders from Developers, EPC, Energy companies, DSOs, equipment vendors or investors will benefit from understanding where solar is currently thriving and where it may suddenlybe emerging.

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12 May 2020

Sticking with natural gas will lead to power generation losses of $1 trillion by 2050

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    An economic report from Rethink Energy, entitled “Sticking with natural gas will lead to power generation losses of $1 trillion by 2050,” forecasts where these asset losses will be recorded around the world, if investors continue to back natural gas assets for electricity generation.

    This forecast shows definitively that rather than focusing purely on the dying coal industry, investors should be questioning the outlook for natural gas – investors, utilities and energy companies should carefully study investment decisions made recently and over the next few years, unless they are happy to absorb investment losses against clean energy portfolios in excess of $1.2 trillion.

    The report draws a continuous graph on pricing from today’s gas investments, and shows when each will be “under water” and unable to compete with wind and solar, plus batteries – and when existing assets will go cash negative.

    By tracking the LCOE (levelized cost of energy) and LCOS (Levelized Cost of Storage) for each of the technologies, and plotting the point where they cross, we can see that gas has just a few more years of profitability left, before crashing into annual losses – unable to compete. The anticipated ramp in energy storage will begin to undermine gas imminently.

    This report makes it clear if you have not used natural gas a ‘bridge’ fuel to zero emissions already, then you are too late – and the current levels of investment will lead to devastating losses in both an economic and environmental sense.

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1 May 2020

Solar PV continues to break records in 2019 before Covid interruption

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    This past quarter is probably the last unhindered quarter of solar business to have no adverse effects from Covid-19, but Rethink Energy has just put together the numbers for solar activity for 2019 – based on government and transmission numbers from a variety of organizations around the world.

    This is the start of the Rethink Energy Solar Service, starting with the basic top down reporting data on installed solar during each quarter, initially just for what are traditionally the top countries, which currently represent about 90% of all solar installations each year around the world. Actually here we have included Vietnam, not because it traditionally contributes a fair percentage of solar installations, but because throughout this year it has suddenly jumped its installations tenfold.

    In total we have tracked the market at 74.6 GW additions for the year globally, plus estimated additional 8 GW when we add in other parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas and the rest of the world. This takes the end of 2018 global total of 476.6 GW of solar, up to the new total of 559.3 GW of installed solar.
    Tracking

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1 May 2020

Wind soars in 2019, faces struggle through Covid-19 as subsidies fall

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    The last quarter of 2019 saw a surge of installed onshore wind capacity, leaving the year as one of the strongest on record before Covid-19 squashes the sector’s momentum. Rethink Energy continues to track activity levels in all global markets, using figures from governments, transmission system operators and other organizations to monitor the penetration of wind through the transition to a decarbonized electricity mix.

    This is the start of the Rethink Energy Wind Service, starting with the basic top down reporting data on installed wind power during each quarter for both onshore and offshore wind. This has entailed detailed analysis of the most active markets, which account for over 85% of installed capacity, including emerging markets like Taiwan which have indicated a wave of interest around wind power as a form of clean energy.

    Through 2019, we have tracked 59.5 GW of installed wind capacity, including 14.0 GW from Europe, 11.4 GW from the Americas and 2.8 GW from the Rest of the World category (Including Eurasia, Oceania and Africa). The leading region by far though is the Asian market with 29.8 GW, itself dominated by China, which was responsible for 25.7 GW.

    Installation activity has increased by 16%, from the 51.3 GW of capacity added globally in 2018. This takes the end of 2018 global total of 563.1 GW of wind power, up to the new total of 622.7 GW for the end of 2019.

    This also leaves 2019 as the second most fruitful year for wind power, behind only 2015 when 63 GW of capacity was installed.

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8 January 2020

Offshore wind to drive 8m jobs, is key to decarbonization

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    The offshore wind industry is poised for dramatic growth in the coming two decades and will involve the creation of 8 million jobs globally, and it will attract $1.3 trillion of cumulative investment, leading to the build out of over 400 GW of electricity generating capacity by 2040.

    This vision comes from Rethink Energy’s latest forecast entitled, “Offshore wind to drive 8m jobs, is key to decarbonization,” a comprehensive global study on the technology and key drivers behind a market which shows no signs of slowing down in the run up to 2040.

    Rethink Energy predicts that by 2030, the global offshore wind capacity will have risen from 25 GW today to 164 GW, before kicking on again as floating wind turbines emerge as a separate extra market during the 2030s. This will drive annual offshore wind installations towards 30 GW a year, leaving the world with 418 GW of wind energy by 2040, providing almost 5% of global electricity.

    Companies mentioned in this report

    Amazon, Belgian Offshore Platform, BP, Chartwell Marine, China Longyuan, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Dominion Energy, Doosan Group, EDF, Envision, Equinor, Formosa, General Electric, Goldwind, Hitachi, International Energy Agency, KEPCO, MHI Vestas, Mitsubishi, Nordex, Orsted, RWE, Samsung Heavy Industries, Senvion, Shanghai Electric, Shell, Siemens Gamesa, Supernode, Taipower, TenneT, Vattenfall, WindEurope, World Bank, WPD

    For more information contact:
    Natalia Szczepanek
    Client Relations and Marketing Manager
    [email protected]
    Office: +44 (0)1179 257019

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