The old Wintel axis is well and truly broken in the mobile and post-PC worlds, and the combinations of processors and operating systems thrown up in the air. In recent weeks, Intel has scored in several Android designs, including a Samsung tablet, and unveiled Silvermont, the reworked Atom platform which represents its best (possibly last) hope for significant presence in mobile and hybrid devices.
But Qualcomm has emerged as Microsoft’s closest partner for Windows RT, as it already is in Windows Phone (it will run WRT 8.1 on its Snapdragon 800 and is heavily tipped to power the next Microsoft Surface RT tablet instead of Nvidia). So far, neither OS is a major threat to Android in mobile, or even x86-based Windows in PCs and hybrids, but Qualcomm plays a long game, and is increasingly usurping the influential position which Intel enjoyed for so long at Microsoft’s right hand.
If some analysts are right and Windows’ star is now a dying one, Qualcomm will have miscalculated, and the battle for Android will be the critical one, not just in smartphones (where Qualcomm dominates on any OS) but throughout the post-PC landscape (where it has greater challenges from Intel, Nvidia and the rest). New OSs like Firefox Mobile will emerge, but for now, true power lies with the Google platform, and we see ARM redoubling its efforts to fend off Intel, even if its efforts to woo the other x86 player, AMD, have not yet paid off (AMD announced its own Android and Chrome OS plans last week).
And then, of course, there is Apple. We will analyze the announcements at this week’s WWDC developer event in the next issue but, at an event dominated by software not new hardware, a stand-out was Intel’s claim that its new Haswell processor would bring all-day battery life to the upgraded MacBook Airs, doubling current levels. This can only strengthen the notion that Intel could find its way into some iOS devices too, especially in new form factors where Apple might not always rely on its own A series processors. After all, Samsung ‘ also with its own advanced mobile processor platform, Exynos, has turned to Intel instead for a forthcoming Galaxy Tab model, indicating how the leading OEMs will need to diversify their supply chains, to protect themselves from component delays and shortages, and to select chips optimized for different types of gadget in the post-PC space.
Certainly, despite some recent and belated success in smartphones, Intel’s real opportunities to move beyond the Wintel days lie in as-yet fluid ‘post-PC’ device formats, where it can harness commonalities with larger PC-class products. For instance, one factor behind Samsung’s choice may be the ability to use the same components for both an Android and a Windows 8 tablet. Clover Trail+ is the first Atom chip that can support both Android and Windows 8 – in the past, Intel’s platforms for W8 differed from those optimized for the Google OS.
Both Intel’s most recent device design wins are in somewhat unpredictable devices – as well as the Samsung deal, it has announced an Acer Android PC based on its Haswell Core processor.
Samsung generally uses its own Exynos processors, or chips from Nvidia and Qualcomm, in its Galaxy range, but it has opted for Intel’s Clover Trail+ part for its upcoming Galaxy Tab 3, perhaps because it cannot yet get down to 20nm process itself. As well as the dual-core Atom Z2560 processor, this will use Intel’s 3G (XMM 6262) or LTE (XMM 7160) modems, a strong win for a company which has been slow to integrate its various mobile chips, and which recently acknowledged that it was losing deals because of the lack of an all-in-one CPU/LTE platform.
EVP of salesTom Kilroy said at Computex that the lack of LTE support was hurting Intel with US carriers in particular, commenting: “Absence of LTE is the reason. We can’t get ranged by US carriers without LTE, so once we have multimode LTE coming to market later this year, we have an opportunity to compete in that business.” Intel’s single-mode LTE chipset solution is shipping now and the company has said that it will begin multimode LTE shipments later this year.
However, integration is less important in large tablets than in handsets (a challenge, in itself, for Qualcomm) and Hermann Eul, general manager of Intel’s mobile and communications group, said in a statement: ‘Customers are selecting Intel technology because it offers the best balance of high performance, power efficiency and battery life.’ The Galaxy Tab 3 will run Android 4.2.2 and come with a display with 1280 x 800 resolution, and will include a PowerVR SGX544 MP2 graphics processing unit from Imagination Technologies.
The adoption of Clover Trail+ may be a testing ground for Samsung ‘ which already uses Intel processors, of course, in its Windows PC families ‘ to move to the upcoming Bay Trail product. This will use the entirely redesigned Atom microarchitecture, which harnesses new 22nm and 3D transistor technology to reduce power consumption dramatically. Samsung is likely to adopt Bay Trail for its Ativ W8 tablet and hybrid ranges.
According to Korea Times, the unlikely bedfellows intend to ‘expand’ their partnership, quoting sources who said: ‘The number of Intel’s Atom-branded chip engineers increased to over 50 this year from six last year in Korea. Most of them are working for Samsung-related projects with a mission to customize circuits for adaptation on Samsung products.’
Meanwhile, Acer is planning a $400 ‘PC’ combining Android and Intel’s Haswell chip. The Acer DA220HQL AIO (All In One) will run on a Core i5 4430 processor (Haswell). The trend for the Google platform to storm Intel’s fortress even in conventional PCs ‘ not just emerging form factors like tablets and hybrids ‘ is likely to be a feature of Computex. The interesting question is how far that crossover segment will be dominated by Intel chips ‘ Haswell and the Atom Bay Trail model ‘ and how far ARM-based alternatives will make an impact.
Intel has been talking about Bay Trail-based laptops priced as low as $200, to emerge this year, indicating how Android can reduce the overall cost of a PC. However, the AIO will not be a high spec model, coming with just 1Gbyte of memory and 8Gbytes of storage ‘ highlighting another trend, towards slimline PCs which conduct most of their processing in the cloud.
Last week’s Computex show saw Intel making a host of announcements, impressing with its customary differentiators of high performance and advanced process technology. The show, coming just weeks after Intel unveiled the new Silvermont Atom platform, saw the debut of the fourth generation Core (Haswell) processor, which has been redesigned around low power and long battery life, improving the latter by 50% to 100%, along with a 20-fold improvement in standby time. Another key focus for Haswell is improved graphics performance, and Intel has announced a new brand name, Intel Iris, for this capability.
While Core is targeted at desktop PCs, laptops and Intel’s own post-PC platform, the Ultrabook, the chip giant was particularly emphasizing convertibles, indicating its awareness that it needs to become synonymous with emerging form factors, rather than its traditional strongholds.
However, Intel did not have Computex to itself. ARM did not have a major architecture leap to tout, but it unveiled new mobile processor designs, notably the Cortex-A12,w hich delivers more performance than the Cortex-A9 and is targeted at midrange smartphones. Noel Hurley, VP of ARM’s processor division, took the stage to ‘set the record straight’ on Silvermont, and its claims finally to have closed the power efficiency gap with ARM. He insisted that ARM was a ‘generation ahead’ of Intel, despite the latter’s shift to advanced 22nm, 3D process technologies, claiming the ARM Cortex-A15 flagship ‘outstrips’ Intel’s new designs.
ARM CMO Ian Drew bolstered the somewhat defensive fightback against Atom, claiming the A15 remains 30% more power efficient than Silvermont and adding that
x86 processors create compatibility issues on Android systems, requiring them to ’emulate’ an ARM processor for apps to run properly (84% of the most popular games and 64% of top apps use native ARM code, he said). He also said that ARM was making the transition to 20nm and 16nm/14nm sizes and would continue to enable its chipmaker customers to stay a step ahead, saying: “Our leadership will increase in the future. ARM platforms are more than a generation ahead.’
He also sought to focus the event’s attention on the midrange, rather than just on the ‘hero devices’ such as $500-plus smartphones, tablets and convertibles ‘ the segments where Silvermont and Haswell will shine most. But ARM’s CMO Ian Drew was keen to remind attendees that the biggest growth in the coming years would come from the midrange mobile devices, a market where ARM still has a massive headstart. The industry will ship more than a billion smartphones this year, and Drew said ARM expects that by 2015, the midrange (currently $250 to $350 without subsidies) will grow to 500m units per year. This is where the A12 fits, along with the new Mali-T622 graphics processor, Mali-V500 video IP, and processor optimization packs (PoPs) with physical IP, to reduce cost and time to market for these price-sensitive midrange products. This is the first time that ARM has simultaneously announced a complete suite of processor cores and IP targeted to a particular segment.
Many observers are taking ARM’s messages to heart, despite Intel’s aggressive progress on device platforms. The larger firm remains haunted by the decline of the conventional PC market, and the strengths of the ARM architecture in power efficiency, and in the potential to support very low cost, commoditized chips and so drive new economics into devices ‘ economics which will be tough for Intel to adapt to.
Auguste Richard, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, cut his rating on Intel after its Computex launches despite the strong reception for those unveilings on the technology front. Richard sees limited potential for Intel to make money in a sector whose norms are driven by ARM and its licensees, and he thinks that, while Silvermont and the new Core generation, Haswell, are promising, they do not go far enough to offset the cost advantages of ARM. And he fears that Silvermont will harm Haswell more than ARM, pushing down Intel’s margins. ‘While Intel will gain a toehold in the tablet market with Silvermont, it is likely at the expense of notebook sales,’ he wrote in a research note.
He added: ‘We are lowering our PC forecast (down 6.9% in 2013 from down 2.9%) and believe current demand is channel fill. Tablets and smartphones, other components and capabilities (displays, cameras, apps etc) are taking attention and dollars away from the CPU. Additionally, an army of ARM-based suppliers have come to market commoditizing the processor market. Leading smartphone and tablet vendors are also using internally designed ARM-based CPUs and now low end CPUs are available for as little as $4.’