Rethink Energy Research

Rethink Energy’s definitive 30 year forecast on EVs and eMobility

With dramatic implications for oil and for investors

While oil executives (and some car execs too) play at being ostriches, burying their collective heads in the sand (presumably looking for more oil), the acceleration of Electric Vehicle uptake has gone into overdrive.

During Q3 2021 you were either proved ultimately right about the future or you were proved utterly wrong – the market has accelerated away from all existing forecasts – reality is happening faster than most people’s imagination.

In Q1 we were still hearing voices talking about how anything between one third and two thirds of Internal Combustion Engines cars would still be on the road by 2050, but by Q3, that particular fantasy was well and truly over – for many people in the oil industry and car industry – it was the wake up call they never wanted – for us at Rethink it was vindication that our forecast numbers were the only ones stacking up.

Now there is little doubt that oil is having it last hurrah, and that the key thing for owners of oil assets is to extract as much money from the market in the next 6 or 7 years as possible, because as soon as that, the entire market will lose all investor confidence and share prices will collapse.

By 2030 there will be significant bankruptcies of household names, as many of them have left it too late to move their businesses anywhere sensible. Debt holders will squabble over the remaining corpses, looking for assets worth buying cheap and turning around fast. They will find few.

This report is essential reading for anyone seeking to fully understand what is happening in the EV market from now till 2050. This includes those planning or investing in any aspect of transport, energy and property including manufacturers, charging networks, battery-makers, or one of the many vendors seeking to supply the EV market and infrastructure. Importantly the forecast is relevant to organizations investing in any area of the energy supply market such as utilities, renewable energy developers, existing oil suppliers, investors, traders, energy equipment manufacturers, grid-scale energy storage, developers, EPCs, energy companies, government regulators, lobbying firms and strategic decision makers.

For $2,300 (for 1 reader), we will give you access to every report, webinar and podcast we produce in the next 12 months, as well as from the last 12. We will also throw in an annual subscription to our Weekly Analysis. That same is true at $3,800 for a corporate license, for any number of subscribers above 2.

For more information contact:

Simon Thompson
Dt Tel: +44 (0)1280 820560
E-mail: [email protected]

There have been many fatalistic claims that global warming will break the grid, as more and more people buy air conditioning – but few studies have seriously tried to put a value in TWh on the size of the problem

In this report from Rethink Energy, entitled “Warming and Cooling – double whammy for the grid” we have tried to put genuine figures which show that as more cooling is installed and as home heat gets decarbonized in HVAC, global utilities will need to lay on more than 1,500 TWh in fresh power resources – collectively about the same amount of electricity that India supplies to its 1 billion citizens.

This report shows that the problems which assail the modern grid are not where you would expect. When we confine our search to the top 21 countries in terms of electricity output, we find that it is countries like the UK, Italy, South Korea and Japan which will be hit hardest, trying to convert their total reliance on natural gas into new resources that start as renewables and are delivered through the existing grid.

If you have any responsibility for long term IRPs for a utility, or long term generation planning you should buy this report, all renewable energy providers should also buy this report to demonstrate long term investment opportunities. Investors in the energy sector should also buy this report.

The Rethink Energy global electricity model is the basis of this and many of our other reports and shows long term trends in renewable energy and the rate of energy transition from fossil fuels.

For $2,300 (for 1 reader), we will give you access to every report, webinar and podcast we produce in the next 12 months, as well as from the last 12. We will also throw in an annual subscription to our Weekly Analysis. That same is true at $3,800 for a corporate license, for any number of subscribers above 2.

For more information contact:

Simon Thompson
Dt Tel: +44 (0)1280 820560
E-mail: [email protected]

Concentrated Solar Power, which has lain moribund for a decade, is about to be reborn according to a new report from Rethink Technology Research, with global capacity to increase several times over by 2030. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) will claim its place serving power grids, green hydrogen complexes, and industrial process heat in California, China, Australia, Chile, Spain, Southern Africa, and elsewhere.

The report, entitled Last Chance Saloon for Gen 3 CSP outlines how new technology developed in the West means that CSP can now provide temperatures of 1,000 degrees Celsius and even higher, enabling the technology to play a role in the decarbonization of the cement, steelmaking, and mining industries. Though still small compared to the photovoltaic or wind power sectors, we expect annual CSP development to be an over $10 billion global industry by the end of this decade.

This report is essential for senior strategists at power utilities, renewable developers, and EPC companies, investor owned power resources and renewable energy investors. Because much of CSP research is currently at university level, also research laboratories and universities will find it a useful resource. CSP vendors and start-ups, and vendors of related equipment such as mirrors, high-temperature valves, thermal storage tanks and other equipment should buy this report to understand the true scale the industry is set to reach.

For $2,300 (for 1 reader), we will give you access to every report, webinar and podcast we produce in the next 12 months, as well as from the last 12. We will also throw in an annual subscription to our Weekly Analysis. That same is true at $3,800 for a corporate license, for any number of subscribers above 2.

Steelmaking – one of the world’s dirtiest industries – will end up becoming of the greatest opportunities for renewable energy, according to a new report from Rethink Technology Research. In the wake of a 1,000-year coal legacy, a combination hydrogen and scrap-based production will see a 20-fold increase in the sector’s demand for clean power, while driving it towards net zero emissions by 2050.

The report, entitled Renewables set to unlock $2.2 trillion Green Steel Monster outlines how, fueled by the development of emerging economies, the global steel industry will not witness the same peak in demand as coal, oil, and gas within the first half of the century, and will rise by more than 50% through to 2050.

Without change, by 2050, the steelmaking industry, which currently accounts for around 7% of global emissions, would burn through more than 60% of the remaining carbon budget to keep climate change from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius.

This forecast provides unparalleled insight into the technological, political, and economic drivers behind the steelmaking industry’s largest transition for over 1,000 years, and is essential reading for those throughout the value chain for steel. This encompasses those producing iron ore, scrap steel, hydrogen, and clean energy for innovative steelmaking processes; those developing and investing in these ventures; as well as those trying to decarbonize their steel-dependent supply chains in the automotive, manufacturing, construction, and consumer goods industries.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $2,300 for a 1-5 user license and $3,800 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis and full access to our archives.

It’s 2050, we are approaching zero emissions – How do you feel?

The world will move from today’s global electricity generation of 24,219 TWh to a little over double this figure at 53,153 TWh per annum by 2050, with the largest gains in China. Despite this huge increase in power requirement, the world will manage to shift dramatically from the coal and gas based generation of today, to one where renewables – mostly solar and wind – are dominant.

These are the conclusions of a new report just out entitled “Look Back in Anger,” from Rethink Energy, which builds a 2050 energy model with almost zero emissions, and then looks back at the hurdles which were thrown up to prevent us getting there.

The foreword points out that in order to forecast change you should practice on industries that actually change – something that Rethink has done for the past 20 years. Change is best understood by a company that has spent the past 20 years looking at the behaviors of Amazon, Google, Apple, Spotify, Qualcomm, Ericsson, 5G and Netflix (as we have). It is not best carried out by researchers who have been trained by oil companies and who have spent their time predicting the same failure to change year after year.

Look Back in Anger is named after a famous play written in 1956, reflecting the anger of a working class intellectual in a class war he felt he could not win. Perhaps this is how Greta Thunberg will feel aged 48, in 30 years’ time.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $2,300 for a single reader license and $3,800 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis and full access to our archives.

Perovskite seems to have been with us for a decade and so far it has not changed anyone’s life, changed the price of solar, or eaten into any company’s profit. Well it’s about to.

Perovskite solar will invade conventional solar in 3 distinct ways, beginning in the tail end of this year, firstly in tandem with existing silicon cells, then in tandem at the module level with silicon modules and finally in incredibly cheap panels of pure perovskite.

Perovskite has the potential in the long run to drop solar costs by 80%, but will initially simply offer 33% MORE electricity on a cell, in tandem with silicon, for slightly higher manufacturing costs. Over the next ten years it will cut 50% of traditional solar generation costs, and then continue falling in price.

These advantages will see perovskites pass 29% of the global market by 2030, and if existing suppliers do not adopt perovskite early, they will fall by the wayside. This will create a landgrab in solar manufacturing all over again, with perovskite leaders able to undercut pricing and double the Levelized Cost of Ownership lead that solar already has over other electricity generating technologies.

This Report from Rethink Energy is an early take on the market just as it begins to go into a concerted manufacturing effort – starting in Europe, China and the US, with early adopters in Japan and South Korea expected to use the technology to re-ignite their domestic solar industries.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $2,300 for a single reader license and $3,800 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis and full access to our archives.