Rethink Energy Research

It’s 2050, we are approaching zero emissions – How do you feel?

The world will move from today’s global electricity generation of 24,219 TWh to a little over double this figure at 53,153 TWh per annum by 2050, with the largest gains in China. Despite this huge increase in power requirement, the world will manage to shift dramatically from the coal and gas based generation of today, to one where renewables – mostly solar and wind – are dominant.

These are the conclusions of a new report just out entitled “Look Back in Anger,” from Rethink Energy, which builds a 2050 energy model with almost zero emissions, and then looks back at the hurdles which were thrown up to prevent us getting there.

The foreword points out that in order to forecast change you should practice on industries that actually change – something that Rethink has done for the past 20 years. Change is best understood by a company that has spent the past 20 years looking at the behaviors of Amazon, Google, Apple, Spotify, Qualcomm, Ericsson, 5G and Netflix (as we have). It is not best carried out by researchers who have been trained by oil companies and who have spent their time predicting the same failure to change year after year.

Look Back in Anger is named after a famous play written in 1956, reflecting the anger of a working class intellectual in a class war he felt he could not win. Perhaps this is how Greta Thunberg will feel aged 48, in 30 years’ time.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $2,100 for a 1-5 user license and $3,200 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis and full access to our archives.

Perovskite seems to have been with us for a decade and so far it has not changed anyone’s life, changed the price of solar, or eaten into any company’s profit. Well it’s about to.

Perovskite solar will invade conventional solar in 3 distinct ways, beginning in the tail end of this year, firstly in tandem with existing silicon cells, then in tandem at the module level with silicon modules and finally in incredibly cheap panels of pure perovskite.

Perovskite has the potential in the long run to drop solar costs by 80%, but will initially simply offer 33% MORE electricity on a cell, in tandem with silicon, for slightly higher manufacturing costs. Over the next ten years it will cut 50% of traditional solar generation costs, and then continue falling in price.

These advantages will see perovskites pass 29% of the global market by 2030, and if existing suppliers do not adopt perovskite early, they will fall by the wayside. This will create a landgrab in solar manufacturing all over again, with perovskite leaders able to undercut pricing and double the Levelized Cost of Ownership lead that solar already has over other electricity generating technologies.

This Report from Rethink Energy is an early take on the market just as it begins to go into a concerted manufacturing effort – starting in Europe, China and the US, with early adopters in Japan and South Korea expected to use the technology to re-ignite their domestic solar industries.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $2,100 for a 1-5 user license and $3,200 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis and full access to our archives.

Wind power will provide the backbone to the electricity sector’s transformation over the coming decade, according to a new report from Rethink Energy, with the technology paving the way for all zero-carbon technologies, accounting for two-thirds of global power production by 2030.

In the report entitled Wind accelerates past nuclear, hydro in post covid power markets, and it makes it clear that all previous forecasts have under-estimated the appeal of wind by some margin.

This report is an essential tool to understanding the full landscape and trajectory of markets that are both established and emerging due to the growing wind power sector. The forecast will be of particular use to individuals who are active or looking to be active at any stage in the development of wind power projects, including developers, component vendors, utilities, researchers, and of course, investors.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $2,100 for a 1-5 user license and $3,200 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis and full access to our archives.

Our Rethink Energy report, “What a difference a day makes; Biden win triggers solar acceleration,” shows how the US election, the incredible Chinese return to economic health post Pandemic, and the varying reactions to the pandemic has completely restructured the global solar industry.

The most striking conclusion of the report is that the US now has the potential to go into overdrive on solar, and get close to a 500 GW solar target by 2030 – held back only by the lack of a majority in the Senate.

But even a muted response by the Republican Senators would still likely see the US jump from predictions of a Solar capacity of 235 GW, to one above 450 GW, by 2030.

This report sees solar additions globally rise by 105 GW during 2020, barely touched by the pandemic, with annual installs then going up by around 10 GW each year until global installs in 2030 are over 255 GW.

This report from Rethink Energy, part of Rethink Technology Research is available for $800 for an individual license and $1,600 for a corporate license. Customers will also get a free annual subscription to the Rethink Energy weekly analysis.

FORECAST OF HYDROGEN TRANSPORT REVENUES TO 2040

Europe has a clear and credible plan to become the center of the global hydrogen industry as its governments collectively finance the work needed to become the world’s first hydrogen economy.

The end result will be 17 million fuel cell powered vehicles across Europe by 2040 – from under a thousand today.

Covid-19 recovery funding is set to pave for much of the R&D required to power the transition and the new hydrogen industry will grow at a CAGR of over 50%, reaching annual revenues of over $115 billion in Europe alone by 2040. It will have cumulative revenues of over $850 billion by that time.

If you work at a strategy or management level in any energy business that is thinking about a hydrogen project, then this report is essential for your planning, but similarly if you work in any of the transport sectors, from buses and trains, and especially the trucking industry – this report will explain the timing of huge changes coming to your industry sector – potentially helping you plan your business’ future and protect it from dramatic change. So if you manufacture whole  trucks or parts for trucks, or for buses or trains, read this report. If you invest in the transportation sector, read this report. If you think you are safe and that nothing can happen to your business, definitely read this report. Don’t be surprised by your energy future.

Companies mentioned in this report:

AKSO, Alstom, Aoxin, Ballard, BMW, Bombardier, BP, Caterpillar, Cummings, Daimler, DHL, Dongfeng, Enapter, ENC Group, Esso, Evobus, Fiat, Fiat-Chrysler, Feichi, FedEx, Ford, Foton, General Motors, Grove, H2 Energy, Hydrogenics, Hyundai, Hyzon Motors, ITM Power, Iveco, Kenworth, Kustec, Leaf, Linde, MAN, Mercedes-Benz, Nel, New Flyer, Nikola, Peugeot, Plug Power, Renault, SAIC Motor, Scania, Shell, Siemens, Sinotruck, Skoda, Solaris, Solbus, StreetScooter, SunLine, Tata Motors, Tesla, Total, Toyota, Van Hool, VW, Workhorse, Wright Bus, Yong Man, Yutong, Zhongtong

ENERGY POST 2050 AND THE AGE OF RENEWABLES

Energy through the looking glass is a kind of manifesto document to show how the analysts at Rethink Energy see the energy transition going. It’s not only good news either and shows how major market distortions will occur which huge risks to both investors and energy companies.

Sure, renewables wins the race for electricity generation, that’s a given. But until you realize the size and enormity of that task, and its timing, it’s easy to think that it is only about wind, solar and batteries, it’s not.

Already we have a stock in Tesla which has almost no-one in Wall Street recommending, which is flying sky high. Stocks fly on fundamentals, advice from Wall Street, or because a bunch of non-investors believe in them and are ignoring Wall Street’s advice. There is going to be a lot of that.

Tesla is a new market leader that has come unhinged from its fundamentals and has a life of its own. Rethink Energy can see that at least another 15 other stocks will come out of the energy transition, eating up the market capitalization that sits in 100 stocks of companies that are over 100 year old. Out of 60 car manufacturers we expect no more than 15 to survive.

It is a simple 45 page document, showing the rapidly accelerating energy transition and the extent to which it reaches into all the markets adjacent to it. Once you have read it you will look at energy differently.

Anyone who invests in any aspect of energy, property or transport will have to fully understand what is happening in the energy transition. If you work at a decision making level in the utility market, or in one of the many vendors which supply that market, but most importantly invest in any aspect of the energy market, you will need this report.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Alstom Power, Alphabet, Airbus, Apple, Amazon, Anglo American, AntoFagasta, Arris, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Aveva, BAE Systems, Bank of America, Barclays, Boeing, Berkshire Hathaway, BHP Group, BioNTech, Black Rock, Bombardier, Broadcom, BP, Centrica, Chase, Citibank, Comcast, Commscope, Disney, DONG Energy, Dominion, Duke Energy, DGWHyperloop, Equinor, Enel, ESPN, ExxonMobil, EDF, EDP, Engie, EnBW, Eni, E.On, Emerson Electric, Exelon, Facebook, Ferguson, FirstEnergy, Ford, General Motors, General Dynamics, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Google, Glencore, Hyperloop, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Hitachi Transportation, IAG, Iberdrola, Iveco, JP Morgan, JC Penney, Johnson Matthey, Lockheed Martin, Lyft, Moderna, Motorola, Moodys, National Grid, Netflix, Netscape, Neiman Marcus, Northern Rock, NextEra Energy, Nikola, Nissan, Orsted, PG&E, Pace, Pfizer, Philips, Polymetal International, Pennon Group, Persimmon, Raytheon, RWE, Repsol, Rio Tinto, Rolls Royce, Rivian, Schlumberger, Southern Company, S&P, Shell, Siemens Transportation, SSE, Statkraft, Time Warner Media, Total, Toyota, Tesla, Uber, Uniper, Union Pacific, Vattenfall, Vaillant Group, Virgin TransPod, Wal-Mart

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