Last week, UK regulator Ofcom set out its latest plans to open up more mobile broadband spectrum over the next five years, but its proposed auctions will have to be supplemented with other sources of airwaves, to avoid a looming shortage. The latest estimate of the scale of that shortfall comes from Real Wireless, which believes the crunch can only be avoided by freeing up 300MHz of additional cellular spectrum, and 350MHz for Wi-Fi, by 2020.
The wireless consultancy’s spectrum and network analysis tool, CAPisce, was used during the run-up to the 2.6GHz and 800MHz auctions earlier this year, to model the UK’s spectrum situation, and an updated version of the tool produced the new predictions.
‘Although new spectrum provided in the 4G auction has given some breathing space in meeting new demand growth, we will face a renewed spectrum crunch in around 2020 without further action,’ said Professor Simon Saunders, technology director and co-founder of Real Wireless, in a statement. ‘The challenge faced by governments and regulators is how best to manage this demand and ensure that consumers and other wireless users continue to see an improvement in their service, while ensuring other critical services still have access to the spectrum they need.’
The CAPisce analysis has been broadened to include the technical and economic impact of several sources of spectrum which are attracting regulatory and operator interest, including the TV white spaces and frequencies which can be shared with existing users such as government agencies. It also models the potential new licensed bands, notably 600MHz, 700MHz, 2.3GHz and 3.4GHz.
Last week, Ofcom unveiled plans to hold auctions in 2015-16, and in 2018, for the 2.3GHz, 3.4GHz and 700MHz bands. The first two are currently used for defence and public sector applications, but could be repurposed in time for an auction in 2015-16.
The 700MHz band would represent a second tranche of former broadcast spectrum, following the 800MHz ‘digital dividend’. Many regions of the world, notably most of Asia-Pacific and Latin America, are already planning to open up this band as their first sub-1GHz LTE spectrum, and most are adopting a common band plan, APT700, which differs from the fragmented state of the US 700MHz band. One of the tasks for Ofcom and other European regulators will be to study whether the APT700 approach could be emulated in the EU, in order to take advantage of a broad ecosystem and roaming platform.
The UK may also investigate the release of up to 100MHz of 2.7GHz spectrum, as well as the 3.6GHz airwaves currently used for satellite.
Ofcom CEO Ed Richards said last week: ‘The demands for mobile data will only increase as millions more wireless devices connect to the internet and each other. We’re looking at ways to use spectrum more efficiently and consider future releases of prime spectrum. By doing so, we can help to meet the significant demands placed on our wireless infrastructure and develop one of the world’s leading digital economies.’