After the steep drops of the past few weeks, solar supply chain prices have stabilized into a familiar pattern of gradual decline. Modules are down less than 1% this week, despite an 11% drop in cell price as the remaining profit margin is shuffled around between segments. After years running at around 100% capacity utilization and sometimes even higher than nominal capacity, polysilicon facilities have begun limiting their output, and the second half of the year may see a mild rebound of prices, though for now they are still gently falling. This week the 2 GW desert solar complex at Kubuqi in China sourced the better part of 1 GW of modules at a price of $188.6 per kW. The price of high-purity quartz sand used in Czochralski Process crucibles has continued to rise from $10,000/ton at the start of the year toward an expected $75,000/ton by December, for the highest-purity inner-face material, while middle- and outer-layer sand are also increasing in price. Inner-face sand can be replaced by lower-quality sand at the cost of crucible lifespan, meaning that this shortage only affects price and will not be a bottleneck stopping production. We may add high-purity quartz sand as an item tracked on a weekly basis. The other possible future price hike is silver paste, but this may take several years to develop.
| Entity | 14-Jun | 21-Jun | Unit | % | 2024 Forecast | Forecast |
| Green H2 Germany | 8.660 | 7.881 | €/kg | -9.00% | €4.06/kg | Link |
| Green H2 California | 2.490 | 3.688 | €/kg | 48.13% | €2.53/kg | |
| Green H2 Netherlands | 5.590 | 6.056 | €/kg | 8.33% | €2.84/kg | |
| Spodumene Concentrate | 4,085.0 | 4,050.0 | $/ton | -0.86% | ||
| Lithium Carbonate | 43,735.9 | 43,596.4 | $/ton | -0.32% | ||
| Nickel Sulphate | 4,653.1 | 4,687.0 | $/ton | 0.73% | ||
| Cobalt Sulphate | 5,554.3 | 5,606.2 | $/ton | 0.93% | ||
| Manganese Sulphate | 810.4 | 807.9 | $/ton | -0.32% | ||
| Copper | 8,421.1 | 8,562.4 | $/ton | 1.68% | ||
| Aluminum | 2,232.7 | 2,236.9 | $/ton | 0.19% | ||
| Iron | 112.5 | 113.1 | $/ton | 0.56% | ||
| Platinum | 982.0 | 964.0 | $/troy oz | -1.83% | $1,143.2/tr oz | Link |
| Iridium | 4,700.0 | 4,772.9 | $/troy oz | 1.55% | ||
| Palladium | 1,362.0 | 1,398.0 | $/troy oz | 2.64% | ||
| Solar Module G12 | 0.204 | 0.202 | $/W | -0.90% | $0.18/W | Link |
| Polysilicon | 10.532 | 9.674 | $/kg | -8.14% | $9/kg | |
| Cell (G12) | 0.120 | 0.106 | $/W | -11.82% | ||
| Wafer (G12) | 0.586 | 0.578 | $/item | -1.40% | ||
| Solar-grade glass (3.2mm) | 3.627 | 3.619 | $/m2 | -0.22% | ||
| Silver Paste | 0.563 | 0.549 | $/kg | -2.34% | ||
| Dutch TTF gas | 36.200 | 37.985 | €/MWh | 4.93% | ||
| US HH gas | 2.380 | 2.528 | $/MMBTu | 6.22% | ||
| LNG Japan | 9.260 | 9.580 | $/MMBTu | 3.46% | ||
| Brent Oil | 74.970 | 75.910 | $/barrel | 1.25% | ||
| WTI Oil | 69.990 | 71.260 | $/barrel | 1.81% |
Natural gas prices have increased after dropping significantly over the weekend due to outages and hot weather.
Green hydrogen is experiencing wild volatility, as expected since it’s not a widely traded commodity yet. The most notable jump happened in California (48.13%) but considering the baseline ($2.49/kg), it’s not something to be concerned about.
Cobalt remains on a slight upwards trajectory alongside other battery materials including nickel sulfate as Chinese electric vehicle demand continues to recover as the year progresses. Cathode material manufacturers are working through inventory at an increasing pace which if demand looks anything like previous years will lead to a significant price spike in battery raw materials between September and November, before tempering on negative expectations as the new year approaches when demand usually slumps. The lithium carbonate price has leveled off following its recovery that preceded that of cobalt and nickel, the continuation of this recovery will primarily be as a result of the continued increase in domestic Chinese EV sales rather than production increases driven by increased exports to Europe.
Price credits: Business Insider, Shanghai Metals Market, S&P Global, EEX.