It looks as though Google is now planning on adding a fully-fledged satellite network to its Project Loon balloons and Titan Aerospace solar-powered drones, as it seeks to bring the internet (and its own services) to every corner of the globe. According to reports, Google is on track to invest $1bn in 180 low earth orbit (LEO) satellites and surrounding infrastructure.
The project is apparently being run by Greg Wyler, former founder of O3b (The Other 3 Billion), in which Google is a key investor. O3b has run tests with 1,500lb satellites but inside sources say that Google will be using smaller satellites around 250lb in weight. O3b currently has four satellites in orbit, with another four due in July and a further quartet later in the year.
The number of Google’s own satellites may later double to 360, as the firm is also a key investor in Jersey-based L5, which trades as WorldVu Satellites. This company has secured spectrum rights to build a Ku-band (12-18GHz) constellation of 360 satellites, operating between 800 and 950 kilometers from the Earth, beginning deployment in 2019. The spectrum was bought from the now defunct SkyBridge Wireless, which had won the spectrum in the late 1990s but had failed to launch its project due to the high initial capital requirement.
LEO satellites differ from geostationary versions as they do not stay in a fixed location above the earth. They orbit at an altitude of between 160km (99 miles) and 2,000km (1,200 miles). A LEO constellation requires dozens or hundreds of units to provide global coverage. Higher orbits require fewer satellites but there are trade-offs in terms of bandwidth and latency.
Google might spend up to $3bn, if the reports are correct. This will not be about a quick return on investment, but a way to secure new and future customers (or an altruistic endeavor by a multibillion dollar company with cash to spend, if you take the Google line). Its long term view, and its revenue model, mean Google would not have to tussle with making profits directly from satellite connectivity, which has proved problematic for many an ambitious launch, and landed many satellite firms in bankruptcy (like the first iteration of Iridium). Rather, Google is investing in reaching three billion currently unconnected users and turning them into generators of page impressions and ad revenue. As the backer of the network Google can ensure that these users are served by its own home page and applications.
Ideally, the Google model might use the Titan drones for their intended purpose of disaster relief connectivity; the Loon balloons to provide drifting but ubiquitous global coverage; all with a redundancy package of LEO satellites for users on the ground to fall back on.
While this is wonderfully optimistic blue sky thinking, does it make sense as a comprehensive global deployment? The argument for connecting the next three billion internet users makes perfect sense in the short term. With little effort on their part and the support of local governments, it’s true that Google could roll out its Loon connectivity to all of Africa in a matter of months. However, the rosy view of this feat of connectivity always fails to consider the long term usage of these newly connected people, who very soon will want to start watching video on their devices (themselves an issue, as users need compatible ground receivers and computers/handsets). Satellite connectivity can’t handle this, no matter how much money is thrown at it. There’s no way to backhaul an entire continent’s video usage over satellite. This is where wireline and broadcasting infrastructure comes in ‘ but only after Google proves to the wireline investors that there is money in the new markets.
Google would then only have a few years in which it will be the only ISP in these new markets before the cable and telecom engineers move in.
This is certainly long enough to win good faith and influence consumer behavior in ways that can’t be bought, and the satellite connectivity would be massively beneficial in the lengthy interim period while the wired backhaul network was constructed. But once the wires arrive, the balloons and satellites will pale in comparison to the latency and bandwidth of mobile services backhauled by fixed infrastructure.
Google’s connectivity projects make the most sense in areas where it is nowhere near cost effective to install wired backhaul ‘ and there are still plenty of those. Islands, rainforests, mountainous regions and populations spread out across vast expanses of land, these will all benefit from the wealth of information that a basic internet connection can provide them with, as data cables have not been built to bring these remote users online.
But one influential person is wary of the plans to use balloons and drones. GSMA director general Anne Bouverot said drones, which both Google and Facebook plan to use to reach the unconnected, were ‘scary’ and could be shot down by terrorists, while she dismissed Project Loon as impractical. Of course, the cellcos her organization represents will be keen to play down the threat from alternative mobile broadband networks, outside their control. But Bouverot made some fair points, saying that devices, rather than coverage, were the main barrier for the vast majority of people in emerging regions. “Today 85% of the world’s population is within coverage of a mobile network,’ she told an event in London. ‘This will only increase. One problem is getting more coverage but there is a wider problem regarding the affordability of handsets.”