Windows 10 duly got its official launch this week, in an event which reflected the critical importance of the operating system to Microsoft – but was light on the mobile vision which will be essential to its success. In the age of open source and cloud services, Microsoft has a significant challenge to keep an old-fashioned OS relevant, even if it makes it free to most consumers and partners over time. CEO Satya Nadella has robust fallback plans, notably to deliver key applications from the cloud to any OS, but he has one last chance to control the end user experience via a new take on Windows. That relies heavily on the OS being able to run on all kinds of devices, current and future, and in preview events, Microsoft has been vocal about unifying the PC, the mobile and other developer and end user platforms. However, the official kick-off sounded rather retro, with much of the talk focusing on the desktop, and with mobile and connected devices seeming to be ‘jam tomorrow’.
Terry Myerson, EVP of Windows and devices, wrote in a blog post on Wednesday: “Our vision was one platform, one store, and one experience that extends across the broadest range of devices from the smallest screens to the largest screens to no screens at all.” But though many elements of Windows 10 are taken from Windows Phone – the Metro-like user interface with live tiles, and the virtual personal assistant, Cortana, for instance – the new OS does not seem ready for the mobile big time yet.
Of course, Microsoft has to ensure that we hear far more about the mobile aspect of W10 during the autumn, or it really will miss any remaining opportunity to eat into the dominance of Android and iOS. That chance is probably gone on conventional smartphones, which will be served Microsoft wares via its multi-platform, cloud-based implementations of critical apps like Office (and perhaps Cortana and the new browser, Edge). But that chance is still available on mobile gadgets which are closer to Windows’ PC heritage, such as tablets and hybrids, and perhaps on emerging connected products on which nobody has yet achieved dominance.
Despite the emphasis on PCs at the launch, the free upgrade program for Windows 8 does apply to smartphones too. Joe Belfiore, head of the OS group, pressed the button in Microsoft’s Redmond headquarters on Wednesday to mark the availability of W10. Most of the details were already known, but it was still a symbolic moment for a company which is showing itself able to adapt its entrenched business model – paid-for OS, walled gardens – to take on the realities of free software, cloud services and BYOD (bring your own device).
It is also having to make another adjustment, to actively proving the worth of its software rather than relying on lock-in. The mobile market, where Microsoft has repeatedly failed to win double-digit share, let alone the entrenched position it has on PCs, has sounded that wake-up call loudly, and W10 will be the proof of claims that the software giant is now ready to compete on its own merits. As Gartner analyst Steve Kleynhans put it: “For a long time, Microsoft didn’t really have to sell Windows. It just sort of was there. You had to take it. Now they’re in a situation where they’re actually having to prove to you that there’s some excellence, some value there.”
Microsoft has been trying to learn lessons from its more modern software rivals – many of which have been piloted first in the less crucial Windows Phone, including the new user interface, the digital PA, and the practice of providing a series of small updates rather than a major upgrade once every two years. Windows 10 goes a lot further towards an ‘as-a-service’ model, pushing out a stream of updates at frequent intervals to the whole base. This will aim to achieve a rare moment of superiority over Android, in that the whole base will receive the latest features at the same time, and developers will know that they are writing for the largest possible base of up-to-date users.
This approach gives rise to speculation that there may not be a true Windows 11, as in a massive new version, but a constant flow of incremental updates for several years – at which point the changes in user experience may have really moved beyond anything that could be labelled Windows (or Android).
Of course, another reason for not ever seeing a Windows 11 will be if Windows 10 fails. At that point, it will not be a case, as with unloved versions such as Vista, of moving swiftly on to the next, improved release. Instead, it will surely be Nadella’s Plan B, of placing all Microsoft’s hopes into cloud-delivered versions of key apps like Office 365, as well as being the cloud platform for all kinds of devices and uses in the mobile and embedded worlds. Already, the commercial cloud division, which includes Office 365, Azure and other offerings, is set to contribute $8bn to this year’s revenues and it grew by 88% in fiscal 2015. Nadella’s target for the unit he used to run is to reach $20bn by 2018.