In the week that commentators were bemoaning the death of Unix, it was timely to remember how many times we have been beguiled by the dream of an open, cross-platform operating system, free from the control of evil vendors. Unix, of course, failed to deliver that dream, splintering into many slightly incompatible, and firmly vendor-controlled, pieces. The same has happened to many other candidates, especially in the mobile world ‘ Unix’s open source descendant Linux, Java and so on. The latest candidate for protecting developers and users from the commercial squabbles of suppliers is HTML5, but already a host of browser-based new OSs are showing signs of being fenced off from true openness, in the name of uniformity and quality of experience. And so the dilemma persists ‘ a single, predictable, stable OS versus the joys of anarchic openness ‘ and so the vendor battles continue to disrupt the industry and threaten legal distractions and stifling of creativity.
Thirty years ago when Unix came to prominence, of course, the balance of power was shifting from IBM to Microsoft. Now Microsoft is on the defensive as the PC declines and it repeatedly fails to gain real ground in mobile devices ‘ and Google is struggling to convince us that it is not taking up the mantle of ‘evil empire’. This was highlighted this week when a Microsoft lawyer accused Google of blocking the former’s attempts to launch a YouTube app on Windows Phone, after the search giant removed the software for a second time. Microsoft claims it has worked hard to meet Google’s specifications and that its rival is determined to damage the ability of Windows Phone to deliver the same user experience as Android and iOS.
Deliberate tricks to keep a potential challenger to the cosy order at bay ‘ true or not, it is all very reminiscent of the days of wrangling between Microsoft, as PC top dog, and the rising forces of Unix and Linux (Unix, according to new IDC calculations, is now in inexorable decline and will have only 9% of the server market by 2017, a prediction which has prompted a host of obituaries and ‘what might have been’ discussions).
Of course, the Unix movement has had a hugely important impact, not just directly by shaking up the server space and breaking down its closed fortresses, however imperfectly; but also by its influence over Linux and the whole open source movement. Also highly imperfect, as the Android experience shows. This is one Linux flavour that is very separate from the others, and has even spent time as a ‘fork’ in the main platform. Worse, it is one that suffers from the worst aspects of the ‘unity vs openness’ dilemma, since it is effectively controlled by one vendor (usually benignly, but Google can show its teeth, as it did when launching Honeycomb only to a favored few); but not controlled sufficiently to avoid fragmentation and wild variations in the quality of products and software.
So will the next generation do better and bring both openness and quality to mobile consumers? The big theme of this year has been the rise of the next generation of operating systems ‘ thin slivers of code underpinning HTML5 browsers and apps, and heavy reliance on the cloud. But developers complain that HTML5, in its pure form, is far from ready for prime time (not even fully standardized yet and lacking many functions on the mobile front). And into the breach left by an immature standard, vendors can throw their ‘solutions’ and assert control.
Google’s Chrome OS is the best example, and the way that the search giant will look to maintain the position it has built with Android, however compromised that may be, and extend it to the new types of devices which will replace the conventional PC. Increasing convergence between Chrome OS and Android; the promotion of the newer system from low end ‘thin clients’ to impressive post-PCs like the touchscreen Chromebook; perhaps most of all, the move into TV and Xbox/Apple territory with Chromecast ‘ all these reveal a firm strategy that may rely on open source code, but is firmly driven by a single power.
There are genuine challengers though. Firefox is getting wide operator and OEM support for its upcoming mobile/cloud platform, complete with HTML5 store; Ubuntu has the most disruptively different offering, and has grabbed attention with its crowdfunded smartphone project; Tizen and Sailfish may be interesting too. All of these, though, will need to become fully strategic for at least a couple of major OEMs and/or operators, not merely second strings with which these players can keep Google and Apple under control ‘ and that outcome is not at all certain yet.
Then there is China, now the world’s largest smartphone market and very influential over users in neighboring countries too. The rise of China makes it inevitable that the near-duopoly of Google and Apple in mobile OSs will not persist into the next generation. Even if the big two fend off their challengers in their traditional western markets and manage to establish themselves firmly among new smartphone buyers in areas like Latin America, they will not dominate China. There, a whole different software ecosystem is evolving, some under government direction as it seeks to create its own destiny in technology; some because of different habits and tastes of consumers, and the strong offerings of local players like search leader Baidu and ecommerce giant Alibaba, both now armed with their own new-style mobile platforms.
So the mobile software world is doomed to fragment still further, and the vision of a single umbrella platform, envisioned by the Unix pioneers, is still far away. The downside will be more consumer confusion and the possible creation of new walled gardens in certain territories, notably Greater China. The upside, though, will be the persistence of consumer choice. Google will need to innovate to keep its crown, and Microsoft will have to step up its game, not just grumble about non-level playing fields. Most importantly, for all its imperfections, HTML5 will lower the barrier for creative new entrants, and keep innovation flowing in the post-PC market.
Tizen delays?
Meanwhile, the OSs that aren’t making headway in smartphones usually claim they are more interested in emerging connected device applications such as cars. The latest to tout this line is Samsung, which has reportedly delayed the release of handsets running Tizen, the open source Linux-based operating system it supports (itself created from the merger of two sidelined mobile platforms, MeeGo from Nokia/Intel and the carrier driven LiMo).
Samsung’s co-CEO JK Shin insisted, in an interview with CNet, that Tizen would be used well beyond handsets. ‘there are many convergences not only among IT gadgets, including smartphones, tablets, PCs and cameras, but also among different industries like cars, biotech or banks,” he said.
Shin denied speculation that Samsung could drop Tizen, despite potential conflicts with Android, and reports from DigiTimes that development had been delayed. The giant had been expected to launch its first Tizen smartphone this month, with sales initially starting in Japan with NTT Docomo, which also worked closely with Samsung at the forefront of LiMo.