The Rethink Energy Podcast complements the Rethink Energy weekly strategy bulletin, as we dive deeper into the dynamic factors of the energy market. We discuss the week’s key issues, while providing insight into our own research and forecasts to give clearer direction of where momentum is building through the energy transition.
Guests welcome for future episodes. Write to [email protected] for details.
The EU plans to move off Russian oil and gas imports by 2027, alternative battery technologies have several years to carve out grid market share while lithium runs into issues, and California has announced a 5 GW “Reliability Reserve”.
The Energy Ministers of Austria, Belgium, Spain, Luxembourg, and Lithuania have proposed a RepowerEU plan the European Commission which would see a doubling or tripling of even optimistic solar forecasts for the bloc. High oil and gas prices are also good news for green hydrogen and for Iran’s ability to rustle up money for its own renewable energy development without Western finance.
The Biden Administration has managed to apportion $3.1 billion from the already-passed Infrastructure bill to help fund the battery industry, especially for EVs: but America will remain five years behind other major battery markets. The EU is bringing in sanctions on Russian oil which will cut down a large fraction of Russian state revenues, and the Dutch grid is becoming more congested.
The AD-CVD probe from the Department of Commerce continues to lay waste to US solar development long before any decision is made: Poland and Bulgaria have refused to pay for Russian gas in the manner demanded by Moscow: and Elon Musk’s Twitter acquisition shouldn’t completely overshadow the latest Tesla news.
Another US A-SMACC probe into solar module imports from Indochina threatens to disrupt American solar development, the UK’s SMR nuclear initiative will take at least nine years to bear its expensive fruit, and the Suez Canal will come to be a green hydrogen nexus.
China’s wind turbine manufacturers are gaining market share at the expense of the West even as Chinese battery maker CATL opens its first factory in Germany: and the UK’s strategy is neglecting onshore wind and the opportunity it represents for both net-zero and post-Russia energy strategies.
World installations of wind power came to 92.5 GW in 2021, 25% lower than the incredibly high figure in 2020: Theion’s sulfur battery technology will be a gamechanger, but the company will struggle to remain its leading player: and First Solar is co-operating with Sunpower to develop a CdTe-Silicon tandem module for the rooftop market within 24 months.
The latest Rethink Energy research identifies a battery supply shortage through to 2025, especially in the USA, whose car industry waited too long to invest in factories. Chinese trade statistics show 40 GW of solar manufactured in two months, and the Biden Administration’s $5.8 trillion budget is already mediocre for renewables prior to Congressional negotiations.
Rethink Energy’s Annual Primary Electricity 2.0 Forecast has been released, covering every energy source and category of demand in the 20 leading global markets through to 2050. That is the prime topic of discussion in this forecast – especially global trade flows of hydrogen.
Rethink Energy’s 2021 solar installation numbers have been released, showing 12% year-on-year growth: Ghana will house one of the world’s largest solar-battery complexes: and American silicon startup Leading Edge promises its floating silicon method could have 32 GW production capacity come 2030.