The Rethink Energy Podcast complements the Rethink Energy weekly strategy bulletin, as we dive deeper into the dynamic factors of the energy market. We discuss the week’s key issues, while providing insight into our own research and forecasts to give clearer direction of where momentum is building through the energy transition.
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LG Chem has entered LMFP manufacturing with a 50,000-ton cathode factory in Morocco. The UK threatens to be the weak link in a mooted UK-German hydrogen partnership. A new study has found 36 HVDC transmission lines which would begin construction across the U, serving 187 GW of renewables, if the policy environment was more favorable.
The solar industry’s growth and its adoption of heterojunction technology will contribute to the global silver shortage in the short term. Oil majors’ adoption of green hydrogen at refineries will ironically place them among the biggest patrons of green hydrogen, allowing for a sustained learning curve reducing product cost. And the UK has delayed its ICE vehicle sales ban from 2030 to 2035, angering activists and car makers alike.
Saudi Arabia and the United States are exploring a partnership which would see Saudi money invested in African mining assets, guaranteeing US customers a cut of production. Power Roll explains its microgroove perovskite technology which sees it produce adherable sheets which see kilowatts of panels transportable under the arms of installers. Vale has announced that it will be investing $25-$30 billion in assets focused around Indonesia, Brazil, and Canada as it looks to expand its nickel and copper output.
Companies such as Cummins, Tata, and Fortescue have all thrown their hats in the ring pursuing hydrogen internal combustion engine technology for heavy-duty freight purposes, but is it the right path to pursue for the climate? Saudi Arabia looks like it might be hosting a major polysilicon factory from China’s GCL Technology, potentially enough to fuel Europe’s solar needs for years to come. CATL has announced that its Shenxing battery will be produced at both its German and Hungarian plants once it has entered mass production, further strengthening the position of LFP in Europe.
Rethink Energy releases its newest report detailing the commercialization of perovskite solar technology and its future in surpassing silicon-based solar modules. Lithium batteries to see significant improvement this decade as silicon anodes and solid-state battery manufacturing mature and begin contributing significantly to volume manufacturing to the EV industry. Japan looks to source $100 billion in public and private investment towards the country’s hydrogen industry.
Continued weak economic data from China and the refusal to provide the truly damning information has spooked industrial and base metal markets into receding as China’s government continues to forego significant support. Aviation startup Boom Supersonic has claimed that its planes will be fully SAF compatible, reassuring airliners that supersonic flight will remain economically unviable. Perovskite module manufacturer TandemPV continues to bide its time before coming to market as it seeks further efficiencies it claims are a tooling and engineering challenge rather than in the uncertain lands of materials science.
China is on track to install 200GW of solar capacity this year, installing 25% more than the rest of the world combined which is expected to total 360GW for 2023. The future of hydrogen trains is being reassessed as Germany’s LVNG pulls the plug and commits to battery-powered locomotion instead. Albemarle has increased its revenue expectations for the year showing faith in its decision to move further towards market-linked pricing and the wider lithium industry’s potential for the rest of the year.
The US Department of Defence is more than doubling its financial support of Lynas Rare Earth’s Texas-based processing facilities in an attempt to lessen reliance on China for strategic military and new energy components. Germany has doubled its hydrogen production targets bringing them closer to the predictions Rethink made a few months ago in our hydrogen report. Finally the team discusses how FirstSolar has doubled its evaluation over the last year and is the only remaining significant player in the CdTe solar space, keeping it out of harm’s way from future escalations in the US-China trade war.
PPA indexation was the hot topic at a recent conference becoming a key trend for the wind industry in the first half of this year. The International Seabed Authority has voted to give itself two more years to finalize regulations necessary for it to grant mining licenses in the deep ocean, potentially delaying the decision to the middle of a commodities supercycle. 40 GW of solar modules are experiencing a long delay to deployment in Europe as demand is so robust that stockpiles become a necessity.
India’s Tata Group – the parent company of Jaguar Land Rover – has announced its $5.2 billion 40 GWh battery factory in the UK, following a lengthy negotiating period with the UK government where it will receive significant subsidies. Germany has completed a €12.6 billion auction for offshore wind development which experienced negative pricing with significant interest from oil majors BP and TotalEnergies. Perovskite companies are deploying small scale projects in China, looking to prove its feasibility in high-humidity conditions.