The Rethink Energy Podcast complements the Rethink Energy weekly strategy bulletin, as we dive deeper into the dynamic factors of the energy market. We discuss the week’s key issues, while providing insight into our own research and forecasts to give clearer direction of where momentum is building through the energy transition.
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China is on track to install 200GW of solar capacity this year, installing 25% more than the rest of the world combined which is expected to total 360GW for 2023. The future of hydrogen trains is being reassessed as Germany’s LVNG pulls the plug and commits to battery-powered locomotion instead. Albemarle has increased its revenue expectations for the year showing faith in its decision to move further towards market-linked pricing and the wider lithium industry’s potential for the rest of the year.
The US Department of Defence is more than doubling its financial support of Lynas Rare Earth’s Texas-based processing facilities in an attempt to lessen reliance on China for strategic military and new energy components. Germany has doubled its hydrogen production targets bringing them closer to the predictions Rethink made a few months ago in our hydrogen report. Finally the team discusses how FirstSolar has doubled its evaluation over the last year and is the only remaining significant player in the CdTe solar space, keeping it out of harm’s way from future escalations in the US-China trade war.
PPA indexation was the hot topic at a recent conference becoming a key trend for the wind industry in the first half of this year. The International Seabed Authority has voted to give itself two more years to finalize regulations necessary for it to grant mining licenses in the deep ocean, potentially delaying the decision to the middle of a commodities supercycle. 40 GW of solar modules are experiencing a long delay to deployment in Europe as demand is so robust that stockpiles become a necessity.
India’s Tata Group – the parent company of Jaguar Land Rover – has announced its $5.2 billion 40 GWh battery factory in the UK, following a lengthy negotiating period with the UK government where it will receive significant subsidies. Germany has completed a €12.6 billion auction for offshore wind development which experienced negative pricing with significant interest from oil majors BP and TotalEnergies. Perovskite companies are deploying small scale projects in China, looking to prove its feasibility in high-humidity conditions.
Solar employment figures are set to increase dramatically up to 2035 before tapering off and becoming a replacement market. The elevated price of quartz sand will remain a problem for solar module manufacturers as supply increases remain years away, though substitutability will soften the impact to a degree. Norge Mining doubles the world’s reserves of phosphate ore in boon for Europe’s battery industry and global food security.
Countries from Spain to the UAE uprate solar targets in confirmation of continued solar demand increase. The battery industry still can’t decide whether sodium ion batteries will take its place in the mobility sector, Rethink says pace of lithium expansion too fast for sodium to compete. Sustainable aviation fuel proponents celebrate minor milestone, still struggling to accept H2 reality.
In this week’s episode the team discusses whether Iridium will represent a supply chain issue for the hydrogen industry, what we found out from an interview with perovskite company Solaires and how IRENA is struggling to grasp the concept of ‘S-curve’ investments when it talks about its global energy outlook.
Rethink Energy updates its battery manufacturing capacity forecast up to 2030 with the market growing by 50% yearly over the next 3 years as Europe and the US finally enter the ring, but will still fail to address China’s stranglehold of the industry. Scandinavian solar deployments continue to impress considering the region’s infamous lack of solar irradiance. Small modular reactor company Copenhagen Atomics targets $20/MWh heat through its thorium-liquid salt breeder reactor despite recent SMR cost increases.
Q1 2023 global solar deployment show the beginning of massive deployment over the course of the year, avoiding the traditional Q4 to Q1 downturn. Innolith comes out of stealth with a novel li-ion battery electrolyte promising 300Wh/kg in today’s batteries and discussions with over 50 companies. Stellantis, Volkswagen, Glencore, and La Mancha collectively purchase two Brazilian nickel sulfide mines in preparation for Inflation Reduction Act regional restrictions.
Rethink Energy debuts its weekly supply chain pricing analysis piece which records and explains price movements throughout renewable energy supply chains. A litany of early stage solar technologies post efficiency breakthroughs. China’s GOTION HIGH-TECH has signed an MoU with the Moroccan Government as the pair explore the possibility of up to $6.3 billion in battery gigafactory investments in the country.