EV Structural Material Trends to 2040; CBAM Drives Aluminum Decline in Favor of Magnesium

The global refined aluminum market is poised for sustained growth, fueled by ongoing industrialization and the increasing demands of the green transition. This report projects a 3.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 until 2035, driven primarily by the automotive industry’s burgeoning demand for electric vehicles and the adoption of innovative Gigacasting technologies. 

The report data draws from our interviews with key industry stakeholders, and insight from meetings at recent conferences and on-site visits, most notably in China and APAC region.

Some key topics examined in this report include:

• Industrialization and green transition
• Automotive industry dynamics
• Gigacasting adoption
• Shift to Magnesium Alloys
• Impact of Policy and Supply Chain Developments
• Production expansions and technological developments

The report highlights the expansion of the aluminum market, driven by rising demand from the automotive industry due to electric vehicle (EV) uptake and global industrial growth aligned with the energy transition. Data on CBAM’s influence, particularly from Chinese emissions trading schemes, and insights into magnesium were gathered from conferences, expert interviews, and online sources. 

The forecast includes a PDF report, along with accompanying XLS dataset showing numbers to 2040 for:

• Aluminum Annual Usage
• Aluminum Usage by Region (China, Europe, USA, Rest of Asia, Rest of World)
• Aluminum Consumption per Vehicle Type (ICE and BEV)
• Average CO2 Emissions / ton Al

Who should buy this report?

This report is aimed at automotive companies and their suppliers to understand the benefits of structural magnesium for EV lightweighting and cost savings, especially in battery packs. Machining companies should anticipate reduced demand for smaller aluminum components due to Gigacasting, which will require fewer parts for vehicle underbodies.  

Governments will find this report useful for understanding the emissions profile of aluminum and the potential resurgence of electrolyzed magnesium, which has a lower carbon footprint. The report serves as a cautionary tale for predicting the effects of carbon taxation. 

Commodities traders will also benefit from understanding the shift to primary aluminum for feedstocks like bauxite, especially considering the geopolitical risks in key mining countries like Guinea. Aluminum recyclers will gain insights into how demand changes will affect them as automotive companies increasingly rely on virgin material due to the incompatibility of recycled aluminum with Gigacasting.   

Lastly, material innovators are encouraged to explore opportunities in developing alloys suitable for Gigacasting using recycled aluminum, potentially reversing the industry’s shift towards primary aluminum due to carbon pricing incentives.