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Published   Rethink Energy

Offshore wind to drive 8m jobs, is key to decarbonization

Anyone reading today’s trade publications cannot be surprised that the offshore wind industry is poised for dramatic growth in the coming two decades. But the 30-year-old industry will take on the kind of kudos usually reserved for Silicon Valley and the telecoms industry – driving the creation of 8 million jobs globally, and attracting $1.3 trillion of cumulative investment which will lead to the build out of over 400 GW of electricity generating capacity by 2040.

This vision comes from Rethink Energy’s latest forecast entitled, Offshore wind to drive 8m jobs, is key to decarbonization,” a comprehensive global study on the technology and key drivers behind a market which shows no signs of slowing down in the run up to 2040.

Rethink Energy predicts that by 2030, the global offshore wind capacity will have risen from 25 GW today to 164 GW, before kicking on again as floating wind turbines emerge as a separate extra market during the 2030s. This will drive annual offshore wind installations towards 30 GW a year, leaving the world with 418 GW of wind energy by 2040, providing almost 5% of global electricity.

While currently led by Europe, the Asia-Pacific region (including China) is set to become the largest market within the next 20 years, with the US lagging way behind due to its conflicting politics, as well as its lack of maritime and transmission readiness. China will overtake the UK as the world leader in terms of installed capacity in 2026, when it will be responsible for over half of the offshore wind capacity in the Asia Pacific region and nearly a quarter globally.

The study addresses the global forecast through a territory by territory assessment of each contributing nation, with a detailed analysis provided for the top 10 territories in terms of installed capacity at 2040. This includes considerations regarding investment readiness, the likely loosening of regulations, and the inevitable ramping up of transmission connections that will be required; a challenge which will be more difficult in some countries than others.

Following a global reform within transmission, the wind power industry will shift its focus offshore in many regions. While the global supply chain for offshore wind will benefit from the experience and scale of the onshore wind industry, regions like South Korea and the US will be limited in expansion due to a scarcity in maritime resources, especially seaworthy installation and maintenance craft. This will particularly limit the US, and the early ambitious build out targets of individual states are likely to be missed.

In fact, in the near-term, most regions of the world have over-promised on offshore wind. However, later in the 2020s there will be a second coming, as more and more floating wind turbines are added to the mix, driving a growth in offshore wind greater than many analysts expect.

This will be facilitated by the falling LCOE of floating wind through the 2020s, to a competitive level between 2028 and 2030. This cost reduction will be partially achieved through the continued consolidation of global turbine makers, and of floating platforms once floating wind enters the fray at scale. However environmental issues will plague the steadfast emergence of this massive industry, and act like a lead weight around its immediate progress until more countries provide evidence of the benign effects of offshore wind.

Companies mentioned in this report;

Amazon, Belgian Offshore Platform, BP, Chartwell Marine, China Longyuan, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Dominion Energy, Doosan Group, EDF, Envision, Equinor, Formosa, General Electric, Goldwind, Hitachi, International Energy Agency, KEPCO, MHI Vestas, Mitsubishi, Nordex, Orsted, RWE, Samsung Heavy Industries, Senvion, Shanghai Electric, Shell, Siemens Gamesa, Supernode, Taipower, TenneT, Vattenfall, WindEurope, World Bank, WPD

For more information contact:

Natalia Szczepanek

Client Relations and Marketing Manager

[email protected]

Office phone: +44 (0)1179 257019

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Contents 2
Graphs and Tables 3

Forecast to 2040 for Global Offshore Wind Markets 4

Introduction 7

The Global Offshore Wind Market 8

Locating offshore wind 10

Technological Developments 12

European Market still the largest in 2040 13

United Kingdom 16

Germany 18

The Netherlands 20

France 22

Denmark 23

Other European Contributors 26

Asia-Pacific Market set for largest growth 30

China 31

India 33

Taiwan 34

South Korea 36

Japan 38

Other Asia-Pacific Contributors 40

US Monopoly in the Amercias Market 42

Other contributors in the Americas 43

A quick word on Africa 44

General trends and innovation 45

The Rethink Method 47

Forecasting investment possibilities across renewables 50

Subscription costs 50

Contributors and contacts 51

About Rethink Technology Research 52

 

Offshore Wind Global Forecast to 2040 10

Offshore Wind Share by Region 2020 11

Offshore Wind Share by Region 2040 11

Europe Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 15

Share of Offshore Wind in Europe 2020         16

Share of Offshore Wind in Europe 2040 16

UK Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 17

Germany Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 20

The Netherlands Offshore Wind Installations to 2040   21

France Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 23

Denmark Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 25

Other European Countries Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 29

Asia Pacific Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 30

Share of Offshore Wind in Asia Pacific 2020 30

Share of Offshore Wind in Asia Pacific 2040 30

China Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 32

India Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 34

Taiwan Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 35

South Korea Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 37

Japan Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 39

Other Asia Pacific Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 41

USA Offshore Wind Installations to 2040           43

Other Americas Offshore Wind Installations to 2040 44

Forecast Total Capacity of Fixed-Base and Floating Offshore Wind to 2040 46

 

 

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