This forecast uses a bottom-up modelling process, building the Open RAN opportunity from the physical network rather than attempting to extract it from vendor revenue disclosures. Vendor accounts typically combine RAN hardware with core networking, software, OSS/BSS, support, services and financing, making a top-down estimate unreliable.

The model begins with the existing RAN infrastructure forecast. Regional tower totals are converted into sites using estimated tenancy rates, and then into sectors using the average number of sectors per site. A radio-per-sector ratio is applied to calculate the installed base of Remote Radio Units (RRUs). This ratio rises gradually as multi-band radios, MIMO and Massive MIMO make network configurations more complex.

Annual conventional radio shipments are derived from the installed base, expected equipment life and additional demand from densification. Radio lifetimes can range from approximately three to ten years, although operators generally try to retain equipment for at least five years and preferably seven to ten. The model therefore accounts for replacement shipments and radios added for new capacity. Regional adjustments reflect differences in 5G maturity, spectrum deployment, population density, Huawei exposure and anticipated early 6G activity.

Open RAN Radio Unit shipments are calculated by applying a research-based estimated Open RAN penetration rate to this wider annual radio market. Equipment is included when it is sold as Open RAN compliant, even if deployed within a predominantly conventional or single-vendor network. The forecast consequently measures the addressable Open RAN equipment market rather than only fully disaggregated, multi-vendor networks.