This past week we interviewed Erick Petersen and Gregg Patterson, respectively the Chief Strategy Officer and CEO of Origami Solar. Origami is an Oregon-based startup, which has just kicked off Series A financing and started a hiring binge, with a strategy that envisions a series of steel solar module frame factories across the US and expanding around the world.
We almost never cover the manufacturing of frames in the solar supply chain, because the investment cost of the production capacity is low, and there is basically been no technological angle to cover, compared to all the ongoing changes in the actual photovoltaic semiconductors. In Origami’s case, the Capex cost for a 750 MW production line is trivial compared to wafer-cell-module.
Frames are like glass – a static major cost element, but otherwise unremarkable. What’s interesting this time is that Origami is part of the US reshoring effort, and that it has an angle of using recycled steel, not aluminum, which will change the cost and quality of solar modules.
“There were a couple of misguided attempts at working with steel, 6-8-10 years ago.” explains Petersen. “Misguided because they were attempts to create a proprietary solution for mounting a module to a racking structure – and the solar industry is not a fan of proprietary solutions.”
There are reasons why the entire modern industry uses aluminum. Aluminum is easy to work with and prototype, and has been the easier and lighter option for frames.
Origami’s steel frame manufacturing angle is also a reshoring angle, with steel being stronger, cheaper on energy costs in the US context, and also generally not imported. The US has its own full-scale steel production ecosystem including steel production and a wide range of fabrication options. Said industry is one-tenth the size of China’s, and moderately larger than Russia’s – but that is, in fact, large. For aluminum, the US is way down in the world rankings, producing less than Canada and importing most of the raw aluminum that is fabricated.
“Steel is a third to half of the cost of aluminum on a global basis, and roll-forming is much higher throughput and faster than the extrusion of aluminum into frames,” says Petersen, who also notes the difference between delivery in one or two days from a US facility, versus the two-month shipping period from overseas, which requires a higher local stockpile of inventory at a module factory.
“One of the two big problems with steel frames is weight. It will always be heavier than aluminum, but we’ve gone through a very iterative process with CAD designs and sample frames, with different grades of steel and types of roll-forming. Now what we have is only slightly heavier. For a large-format utility-scale module we’re only 5 kilograms heavier, much less than the old attempts at steel frames.“ says Patterson, the CEO.
It’s worth noting that the US is an overwhelmingly utility-scale solar industry, while module weight is more important in the rooftop segment. Also, Origami’s stronger frames won’t require different designs to the overall module – at least initially, while they seek partnerships and acceptance with existing module designs. “There’s a lot of things you could do, but we’re trying to drive industry adoption.” observes Patterson.
Origami did need several years of new design work to have a viable, competitive frame design, including a manufacturing process with high throughput, meaning low Capex for production facilities. “We’re not the only ones to internalize that designing a ‘light enough’ frame is not trivial. And the supply chain is not one for a commodity part, because a steel solar frame is a complex shape – it takes a subset of roll-forming fabrication to do it.” states Patterson.
The second problem for steel is, of course, cost – with Peterson citing the past five years in particular of close cost competition. But that’s primarily in the Chinese context, where energy costs are low. And while aluminum frames have bottomed out their cost reduction curve, steel is only just about to start down its cost reduction curve.
A US steel frame produced according to Origami’s design would involve less than a tenth as much energy consumption as a Chinese aluminum frame produced with the typical extrusion process. The Chinese frame could still win if the US hadn’t decided to counterbalance China on trade – which suddenly makes relying on cheap Chinese coal-based energy, (see also the production of metallurgical silicon) a very different proposition, with Origami’s 90% emissions reduction suddenly relevant. Besides being more energy-intensive, aluminum production is more manpower intensive – and both energy and wages are expensive in the US.
Steel’s most obvious advantage over aluminum is strength – and that may become an issue as solar’s module and glass breakage rates rise, driven by the aforementioned harsh cost competition as well as the shift to larger modules using non-tempered 2mm, not 3.2mm, glass, with thinner and shorter frames – down from 40mm to 25mm tall on the frame.
So as time goes on, we have three flaws opening up for aluminum – the structural weakness as modules get bigger and thinner due to the relentless focus on cost reduction, the future policy agenda to attack manufacturing process emissions, and the strategic vulnerability of imports, whether of aluminum frames or aluminum to be made into frames, given the US’ current and future reshoring policy agenda. “It only takes one political decision and the cost to making US solar modules using imported aluminum goes up dramatically. That’s a serious risk to all the companies looking to make modules in the US.” observes Patterson.
In other solar news
LONGi plans to invest $442 million 12.5 GW in an HPBC 2.0 cell factory which is to come online in H1 2025.
Albania has concluded its 300 MW solar auction launched in January, with a lowest bid of $43.3 per MWh and a maximum bid of $65.4 per MWh. 283.9 MW was awarded, and 356 MW was offered by nine applicants.
Clean Energy Associates has stated, in a report commissioned by the American Council on Renewable Energy, that imported module costs could rise by $150 per kW and domestic by $100 per kW as a result of potential tariffs which may result from the latest Department of Commerce petition seeking anti-dumping and countervailing duties. This is the usual divide between manufacturers and project developers, which have opposing interests on trade policy.
IRENA has published a report stating that 16.4% year-on-year growth is needed in renewable energy growth to meet global 2030 climate targets, predicting that the world will install 9.7 TW of clean capacity, while needing 11.2 TW.
Green Gold Energy has received consent for a 108 MW solar, 91.7 MWh battery storage project in South Australia.
Spain has introduced regulations relating to floating photovoltaic installations on public and state-owned reservoirs, which researchers at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences had found a payback time of just 2.8 years for such installations, based on a 448 kW system built in 2019 at the Lac des Toules reservoir.
France has concluded its Commercial and Industrial rooftop PV tender with an average tariff of $110.8 per MWh, with 179.9 MW allocated.
China’s Ministry of Commerce has opened a trade and investment barrier investigation concerning the EU’s implementation of its Foreign Subsidies Regulation, relevant to the trade in solar modules, railway locomotives, wind turbines, and security inspection equipment.
UK authorities have approved 1.35 GW of utility-scale solar across three projects.
Waaree Energies subsidiary Indosolar has begun production at its new 1.3 GW solar module factory at Noida, India.
A 260 MW agrivoltaics project in Guizhou Province, China, is to be built with a $300 per kW BOS cost.
Construction has begun at three ‘desertification control’ solar power projects in Xinjiang, China, with capacities of 600 MW, 800 MW and 3.5 GW.
Uzbekistan has seen construction begin at a 500 MW solar farm in its Fergana region.