Download the Executive Summary below, or contact us for more details

With litigation intensifying and Avanci Video showing its hand on streaming pricing, our latest Codecs Forecast delivers a critical reset.

You’ll gain a complete view of how the video codecs landscape is evolving and what it means for your strategy, with detailed forecasts tracking codec adoption across device regional shipments and installed base projections, covering MPEG-2, AVC, HEVC, VVC, AV1, AV2, and LCEVC. For video services and operators, this provides essential guidance for device availability and CPE expectations.

The report explores the economics behind video codecs, including revenue and royalty modelling based on patent pool pricing and OEM shipment data. This extends to the emerging streaming-focused licensing programs, including Access Advance VDP, Avanci Video, and LCEVC VDLP, highlighting their potential impact on the market.

We quantify the size of the opportunity, providing detailed Total Addressable Market (TAM) and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) estimates for each codec – helping you understand where value is being created and how it is distributed across the ecosystem.

Patent attorneys and litigators will find this report valuable, offering a view of the rapidly evolving legal landscape surrounding video codecs. We examine the recent wave of litigation, injunctions, and world-first precedents, highlighting how these developments are reshaping enforcement strategies, licensing models, and the balance of power between patent holders and streaming platforms. By connecting legal outcomes with market dynamics, the report provides critical context for assessing risk and anticipating where the next disputes are likely to emerge.

Some key takeaways from our interviews with vendors and their customers:

• A few of the companies we spoke to said that IP was the prime motivation for some of their largest acquisitions.

• One transcoding vendor felt very strongly that LCEVC would fade into obscurity within the next couple of years.
• In the battle between HEVC and AV1, one interviewee argued that their compression abilities are so similar that an expert could tilt their findings in either codec’s favor.
• A few interviewees argued that streaming formats are only going to change more rapidly and less predictably, with one predicting as many as two successors to AV1 by 2030.
• The ‘versatility’ of VVC could prove to be its Achilles heel, as it is designed around new and untested use cases.
• Some felt the controversy over AV1 was indicative of a wider effort by large companies to devalue patents, thereby reducing the disruptive threat they pose to budding monopolies.

This forecast is essential reading for IP holders in the M&E sector, OEMs, video services and operators, investors, and patent litigators alike. The package includes:

• XLS dataset
• 31 charts and graphs
• 100+ page PDF
• ‘Codec Timeline’ infographic
• 30-minutes online meeting with Rethink’s Senior Analyst, for a discussion about the report findings

Download the Executive Summary below, or contact us for more details