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Rethink TV

Rethink TV is our video research team, producing market forecasts, technology white papers and tracking operator-technology vendor relationships in OTT video.

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    Rethink TV is a research service with a series of forecasts of core OTT video technologies and applications explaining how changing business models will revolutionize video delivery. It also comprises profiles of the 100 largest operators in the world, and the technology stacks they use to deliver OTT video content.

    Available on an annual subscription basis, it’s designed as a tool to increase revenues from OTT video markets and survive the rethink of TV.

    Subscription Content

    • Rethink TV Profiles | A library of over 100 OTT Operator Profiles is held at our website.  There are new updates to these profiles each week, providing analysis of the top TV operators globally.
    • Rethink TV Reports & Forecasts | The delivery of a report/forecast to aid business decisions. At least six per year, plus archive access.
    • Exclusive Web Access | Paid subscribers have unlimited access to the full Rethink TV archives held at our website. [See the Back Catalogue of Reports below also.]
    • Access to Rethink TV’s Editor and Analysts for questions.
    • Full back-up service from our Client Relations team.
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28 September 2020

CDN and WebRTC Video Forecast 2020-2025

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    Pure WebRTC services emerge to take share from Private CDN vendors, as total CDN market hits $33 billion by 2025

    Rethink Technology Research finds that Multi-CDN accounts for 72% of Total CDN by 2025, as developing regions with worse Public CDN options surpass North America and Europe.

    As the percentage of global internet traffic that is video creeps up from 69.4% to 75.8%, between 2020 and 2025, Multi-CDN deployments will graduate from commonplace to essential. The Multi-CDN market will grow to $24 billion, as more video services begin using multiple CDN suppliers, to ensure better resilience and quality of service, and to negotiate lower prices from CDN suppliers.

    Amid this battle between Public CDN and Private CDN options, we also expect the emergence of Pure WebRTC distribution services, as an alternative to CDNs. Predominantly targeting live video, and driven by the emergence of the SRT, RIST, and CMAF protocols, these Pure WebRTC services are projected to grow from around 1.2% to 8.3% of total Multi-CDN traffic – as streaming video services turn to cheaper alternatives to CDNs.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    Akamai, Alibaba, Amazon CloudFront, Anevia, Broadpeak, CDNnow, CDNvideo, CenturyLink
    (Lumen), CloudFlare, Concurrent, Conversant Solutions, Edgemesh, Edgeware, Eluv.io, Fastly, G-CoreLabs, Google, Globecast, Haivision, LimeLight Networks, Livepeer, MediaKind, Microsoft, Nanocosmos, Net Insight, OctoShape, Peer5, PeerCDN, Qumu, Red5 Pro, StreamRoot, Strivecast, Synamedia, Teltoo, Vecima, Velocix, Verizon EdgeCast, Viblast, Vidgo, Wowza, Zixi

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    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

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23 July 2020

New Kids on the Block – the next video wave

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    Long Form, Social Media, and Gaming Online Video grow to $171.5 billion market by 2025, as core pay TV market continues decline

    Rethink Technology Research finds that long-form video from outside the traditional pay TV ecosystem will grow aggressively, as new generation of viewers strays farther from reach

    Our latest Rethink TV forecast demonstrates the slow decline of pay TV, and the rise of the OTT market – both SVoD, and this new sector. So while the growth in SVoD that stems from the conventional TV and movie industry does more than offset the losses we see in pay TV line, what Rethink TV wanted to do was quantify ‘the other’ – long-form video content that does not originate from TV and film studios, that isn’t delivered over pay TV infrastructure, and that is often available freely to viewers.

    Defining this sector has been difficult, but we chose to focus on three constituent parts – Long Form online video, Social Media video, and Gaming video. Collectively, for the purposes of this forecast, we’ll refer to them as LSG.

    Our research shows how LSG grows faster than SVoD, and is on track to close the gap with pay TV within a couple of decades. That event could be the end of pay TV as we know it and of course sports rights, as they de-couple from pay TV could have a huge part to play in that, and we have already published a forecast on those.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    Amazon, AT&T, Comcast, Crunchyroll, Dailymotion, Disney, Facebook, Google, HBO, iQIYI, Le.com, Microsoft, MX Player, Netflix, Peacock, Snapchat, Tencent Video, TikTok, Tune.pk, Twitter, Viki, Vimeo, Viu, Voot, Youku, YouTube

    Need more information?

    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

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18 May 2020

Subscription VoD peaks, as Covid-19 lockdown drives sales

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    SVoD FORECAST TO 2025

    Rethink Technology Research finds that COVID-19 lockdowns provide an 8.7% immediate lift to the SVoD market, which reaches $72.3 billion and 775.8 million subscribers in 2025

    The global Subscription Video on Demand (SVoD) market is projected to be positively impacted by the COVID-19 lockdowns, as consumers turn to SVoD services to fill increased viewing hours and restrictions on movie theater attendance. Disney’s arrival on the global streaming stage could not have come at a more opportune time, and it is projected to soon pass Amazon’s Prime Video viewership, and close the gap on first-place Netflix towards the end of 2025.

    The collective streaming providers are the nail in the coffin for traditional pay TV approaches, and it is hard to see how viewers with two or more SVoD services can ever return to the conventional pay TV model. The three streaming providers have had the biggest opportunity to rip market share from the pay TV market handed to them on a plate, and their projected success here means that they will fundamentally alter the viewing habits of hundreds of millions of households

    Combined, this is a market that reaches 775.8 million global subscribers, worth $72.3 billion in 2025. That growth comes at the expense of traditional pay TV services, and the uplift expected from the COVID-19 lockdowns will have long-lasting affects. Once kids are locked into an SVoD library, and Disney’s does look particularly enticing, parents are going to be quite reluctant to cancel that service, and when the prices are this low, the SVoD services become very sticky offerings. When measured against our historic projections, we believe that the lockdowns will result in an 8.7% increase in subscriptions, and a 7.9% increase in revenue, in 2020.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    AT&T, HBO, Comcast, Sky, Disney, Hotstar, Netflix, Amazon.

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16 March 2020

How to survive the Set Top Box endgame

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    Android TV to dominate set tops, trade war shuts door on China

    After a decade of predictions that the set top was on its last legs, the endgame is in sight – but far from dying overnight, over the next five years what operators seem to be planning is a dramatic reduction in the list of video operating systems. This is all spelled out in a new report from Rethink Technology Research entitled “How to survive the Set Top Box endgame.”

    Android TV, RDK and a handful of other specialist smart TV OSs will come to the fore, mostly at the expense of generic Linux variants, plus a new entry out of China as the US China trade war eliminates what would have been dominance there on Android in favor of Huawei’s Harmony, which will eventually make the transition from Smart TV OS, to full bloodied set tops.

    On pure set tops globally Android will reign supreme and make huge gains in Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Although Android will score in North America, it will be held at bay by the resolute rock of RDK, increasingly dominant in the cable sector.

    We believe that Android TV will surge to the top of the leaderboard with 24% of global pay TV subscriptions. In North America Android will meet stiff resistance from RDK and meanwhile Huawei’s HarmonyOS will become a major force in China, initially on smart TVs, and then later on set tops.

    Companies mentioned in this report

    Altice, Amazon, America Movil, Android, Apple, Arris, AT&T, Bharti Airtel, Bourges Telecom, BT, Canal+, Calbevision, Charter, CBS, CenturyLink, Comcast, CommScope, Cox, Cyfrowy Polsat, DAZN, Deutsche Telekom, Dish D2H, Disney+, ER Telecom, ESPN, Fox, Google, Grupo Televisa, HBO, Huawei, Humax, Iliad, KDDI, Korea Telecom, LG, LG Uplus, Liberty Global, Linux Foundation, MEASAT, Multichoice, Netflix, NTT Docomo, Orange, Peacock, Pluto TV, Reliance Jio, Rogers, Roku, Rostelecom, Samsung, Shaw, SoftAtHome, Sun Direct, Tata Sky, Telecom Argentina, Telefonica, Time Warner, TiVo, Tricolor, Tubi TV, UPC, Verizon, Viacom, Vodafone, VTR

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10 January 2020

Virtualization to capture 500 million fixed broadband customers by 2025

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    Global Forecast on Virtualized Broadband

    A boom in virtualization of fixed broadband access infrastructure is developing and will sweep through almost all connections over the next decade, passing the 500 million mark in 2025. That will be 40% of the total 1.26 billion global broadband subscriber base by then, compared with just 0.48% at the end of 2018 and 2.58% now at the start of 2020. These findings have just been reported by Rethink TV, the research arm of Rethink Technologies Research, in its latest report, Broadband Virtualization Accelerates to 500 million connections By 2025.

    Except for Africa, virtualization will proceed at a similar pace in all regions with relatively little difference between the telco and rather smaller cable broadband sectors. This reflects virtualization being universally recognized as essential to contain costs and boost efficiencies in a cutthroat broadband market that has become the lifeblood for both cable cos and telcos.

    While Comcast on the cable side and telco Deutsche Telekom will be among the strongest early adopters, many operators in developing countries across Asia Pacific and Latin America will be not far behind as they deploy virtualized equipment, expanding footprint and as part of the replacement cycle. Some developing countries will be among the leaders, with Indonesia on course to virtualize 63% of its connections by 2025.
    This report is critical to anyone involved in planning a broadband network which many include pay TV operators, telcos or their equipment and software suppliers and investors, at C Suite level down to strategic marketing and planning.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    Adtran, America Movil , AT&T, Bezeq, Brocade, BSNL, BT, CableLabs, Calix, CenturyLink, Charter, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Cisco, Claro, Comcast, CommScope, Cox Communications, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Groupo Clarin, Grupo Televisa, Harmonic, Huawei, Jio Fiber Broadband, Juniper Networks, KDDI, Korea Telecom,  LG Uplus, Liberty Global, Megacable, Net Servicos, Nokia, NTT Docomo, Oi, Orange France, SFR, SK Broadband, Sky UK, Softbank, Telecom Italia, Telecom Egypt, Telefonica, Televisa, Telmex, Turk Telecom, Verizon, Virgin Media, VMWare, Vodafone Kabel Deutschland, ZTE

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13 November 2019

Addressable advertising boom across all regions and platforms

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    Addressable Advertising Forecast to 2025

    Addressable TV advertising will leap from $26.5 billion in total worldwide revenue in 2019 to almost six times that value at $85.5 billion by 2025. This reflects advertising dollars switching to addressable as the platforms mature and are better understood by the advertising community.
    This is the principal finding of the latest Rethink TV report, Addressable Advertising Forecast to 2025 Addressable advertising boom across all regions and platforms.

    Aggregation of inventory will be a key driver by increasing the size of addressable targets, making them viable for larger brands and overcoming fragmentation within the ecosystem. The main boost for broadcasters and Pay TV operators is that these adverts fetch higher CPMs (Cost Per 1000 impressions) than general spots broadcast to all viewers of a program.

    The boom in addressable TV advertising coincides with a decline in traditional pay TV viewing in some of the leading markets, including the USA. This is reflected in addressable accounting for an increasing proportion of total TV advertising revenue over the next 6 years. In terms of impressions, addressable accounted for just 2.4% of total TV advertising in 2019, rising by about 3.5-fold to 8.5% by 2025. But because addressable ads cost more their revenue contribution is greater, reaching 32.8% or virtually one third by 2025.

    The report breaks down the analysis of addressable and online TV advertising by the main geographical regions, identifying key drivers and constraints in each case.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    ABC, Alibaba, Amazon, AMC Networks, Apple, AT&T, Baidu, Barclays Bank, British Airways, CBS, Changhong, Channel 4, Clypd, Comcast, Comscore, Discovery, Disney, ESPN, Facebook, Freeform, Free Sheel, Hearst Television,  Hisense, Hotstar, Liberty Global, NBCUniversal, Netflix, Nielsen, Roku, Sky, Skyworth, SportX, Star India, Tencent, Turner, Virgin Media, Vizio, WarnerMedia, Xandr, Xiaomi, Youtube

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