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Rethink TV

Rethink TV is our video research team, producing market forecasts, technology white papers and tracking operator-technology vendor relationships in OTT video.

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    Rethink TV is a research service with a series of forecasts of core OTT video technologies and applications explaining how changing business models will revolutionize video delivery. It also comprises profiles of the 100 largest operators in the world, and the technology stacks they use to deliver OTT video content.

    Available on an annual subscription basis, it’s designed as a tool to increase revenues from OTT video markets and survive the rethink of TV.

    Subscription Content

    • Rethink TV Profiles | A library of over 100 OTT Operator Profiles is held at our website.  There are new updates to these profiles each week, providing analysis of the top TV operators globally.
    • Rethink TV Reports & Forecasts | The delivery of a report/forecast to aid business decisions. At least six per year, plus archive access.
    • Exclusive Web Access | Paid subscribers have unlimited access to the full Rethink TV archives held at our website. [See the Back Catalogue of Reports below also.]
    • Access to Rethink TV’s Editor and Analysts for questions.
    • Full back-up service from our Client Relations team.
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6 September 2021

Cloud Production Technologies – Market Forecast 2021-2026

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    Cloud Production undergoes baptism of fire, as pandemic pushes remote technologies to the fore, with Sport the biggest driver

    The move towards cloud-based production environments has been rapidly accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has forced the video ecosystem to quickly shift to a new way of working, using cloud-based production techniques to solve the physical separation of their workforce.

    The conventional thought that has dictated so many technology purchasing decisions, that all members had to be within arm’s reach, has been challenged by the pandemic, with cloud and remote production proving their worth. This trial by fire has shown that new techniques can be deployed, enabling new use cases and cost efficiencies inside a typically conservative industry.

    Put simply, we expect total production costs in the video industry to grow from $291 billion in 2020 to around $376 billion in 2026. This comprises a lot of costs that are not part of Rethink’s usual technology focus, and so, we believe that Cloud Production revenues will rise from $601.87 million in 2020 to $2.48 billion in 2026. Growth is not delineated by regions, and will not be until this market has matured significantly.

    This report is critical for stakeholders in the content creation industry, as well as those who are responsible for delivering that video to viewers. A raft of new technologies are taking root, which will significantly alter the production landscape – creating opportunities for those in the distribution realm to have a greater stake in the production market.

    Companies mentioned in this report: Accsoon Technology, Adobe, Agama Technologies, Amagi, Amazon, Appear, Apple, Aspera, Ateme, Autodesk, Avid, Bitmovin, Blackbird, BlackMagic, Box, Brightcove, Canon, Cerberus, Corel, CyberLink, Dejero, Dropbox, Edius, EVS, Filmora, Frame.io, Globecast, Google, Grass Valley, Haivision, Harmonic, HitFilm, Hollyland, Inkee, JVC, Kaltura, Latakoo, Lightworks, LiveU, Live X, Magix, Maven, Media Silo, MediaKind, Microsoft, Nero, Net Insight, Nevion, Ooyala (Dalet), Open Broadcast Systems, Panasonic, Pinnacle, Pix, Red Bee Media, Ross Video, SampleDigital, Shift, Signiant, Sony, SWIT, Teradek, The Switch, Vaxis, Vimeo, WireDrive, Wondershare, Z-Cam, Zixi

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    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)7399 491840

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8 July 2021

Set Top Box, Smart TV, and Connected TV Device Operating System Forecast – 2020-2026

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    Android TV shines in set tops and Smart TVs as global pay TV market declines, but Huawei’s HarmonyOS poised to surge

    Android TV and Huawei’s HarmonyOS are set to dominate the coming years across both the shrinking footprint of operator set tops, and the ballooning number of smart TVs and connected TV (CTV) devices.

    Pay TV Households will decline from an estimated 921 million in 2020 to 680 million in 2026, impacting the annual shipments of Operator Set Tops, which falls from 242.6 million to 184.8 million, propped up by the upgrade cycle for new Set Top Box operating systems.

    This means that the install base for set tops is set to decline from 1.21 billion in 2020 to 824.67 million in 2026, while the Smart TVs & Connected TV Devices segment is expected to grow from an installed base of 497 million in 2020 to 905 million in 2026.

    Operators will ditch resource-thirsty legacy Linux-based Proprietary set tops as their footprint of pay TV homes starts to decline around the world, with the market share such systems falling from around 85% in 2020 to 48% in 2026. This transformation will see a global uptick in Android TV and HarmonyOS set tops, with RDK making some progress in Europe and keeping hold of the US market.

    Globally, Android TV Operator Tier will grow from around 5% of the installed operator set top base to some 23%, in 2026. RDK, meanwhile, is only expected to grow from 6% to 10%, even with interest from Tier 1 operators in Europe. Almost doubling your footprint would normally be a cause for celebration, but when compared to Android TV Operator Tier’s success, it is not as emphatic.

    Linux is also set to decline in the world of smart TVs and CTV devices, as LG’s WebOS, Samsung’s Tizen and Roku’s platform lose ground to the rise of Android TV and Huawei’s HarmonyOS. This will also drive out Chromecast and AOSP-based installations, with former’s decline catalyzed by a decline in demand for CTV devices as device replacement cycles lead smart TVs become the standard first screen in the home.

    Android TV is set to reach 25% share of Smart TVs and Connected TV Devices by 2026, representing an estimated 236 million of a total 905 million devices.

    Perhaps the standout feature of our findings is the rise of HarmonyOS. The trade dispute between China and the US, with resulting concerns over access to Android updates, has galvanized the Chinese government to push for a major independent national OS, with HarmonyOS the apparent preferred candidate. The long-term consequences for Google and Android of this trade dispute could be enormous and almost entirely negative.

    In the short term, Huawei and others will continue to favor Android for set top and other connected devices, including smartphones and tablets – leading to growth in China for Android, initially. However, the likely longer-term direction is towards HarmonyOS as a ubiquitous cross-platform OS that will also increasingly take on Android in neutral markets outside China – especially in APAC and Latin America.

    Companies mentioned in this report: 3SS, Accedo, Access, ADB, AirTies, Alticast, Amazon, Amino, Amlogic, Amstrad, Apple, Arris, Askey, Broadcom, Canal+, Comcast, CommScope, Coship, Cox, EchoStar, Ensys, Espial, Google, Hisense, HiSilicon, Huawei, Humax, Intek, Intel, Kaon Media, LG, Marvell, Metrological, Microsoft, Myrio, Nagra, Netgem, Nokia, Orange Networks, Oregon Networks, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Radix, Reference Design Kit (RDK), Roku, Sagemcom, Salt, Samsung, SeaChange, Skyworth, Sony, SPB TV, Sumitomo Electric, Synamedia, Tata Elxsi, Tatung Technology Inc, TCL, Technicolor, Thomson, TiVo, Tru2Way, Vestel, Vewd, Viaccess-Orca, Videoscape, ViXS, Vizio, Witzivi, Wyplay, Zappware, Zenterio

    Need more information?

    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

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30 April 2021

Media & Entertainment Transcoding Workload and Device Royalty Forecast 2020-2030

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    HEVC fallout damages VVC adoption, AV1 grows on back of Android TV and OTT, LCEVC takes root, in $7.8 billion annual royalty market

    The arrival of a new generation of video codecs, the first designed for our streaming-first media and entertainment world, will disrupt the transcoding market substantially, over the course of the next ten years.

    The next generation of codecs are set to be more costly, and this means that the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for video device royalties will grow 146% to $8.42 billion in the decade following 2020. Meanwhile, the Service Obtainable Market (SOM), what we believe to be the likely path, will grow to $7.62 billion in 2030. This means that patent pools will be collecting ever more royalties from the available market, with the total SOM reaching over 90% of the TAM by the end of the period.

    This report is critical for anyone who wants to understand how transcoding workloads are going to dramatically shift in the next decade as the next generation of codecs arrive. The answer sheds light on how OEMs will have to loosen their purse strings to keep up with consumer demand and puts a cool-headed roadmap on how and when these changes will likely take place.

    Companies mentioned in this report: Access Advance, Alliance for Open Media (AOMedia), Altera, Amazon, AMD, Apple, ARM, Ateme, AWS Elemental, Beamr, Bitmovin, Cisco, Dolby, Dolby Labs, Encoding.com, Ericsson, ETRI, Facebook, Fraunhofer, Fujitsu, GE, Godo Kaisha IP Bridge, Google, Harmonic, Huawei, IBM, IEC, Intel, InterDigital, ISO, ITU, JVC Kenwood, LG Electronics, Maxell, Media Coding Industry Forum (MC-IF), MediaKind, MediaTek, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electric, Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG), Mozilla, MPEG Licensing Administration (MPEG LA), MVMO, NAB, NEC, Netflix, NTT, Nvidia, On2 Technologies, Orange, Panasonic, Philips, Qualcomm, Samsung, Sharp, Sisvel, SK Telecom, Sky Italia, SmugMug, Sony, Synamedia, Tagivan, Tata Elxsi, Telecom Italia, Thaicom, Toshiba, Tremmen, Tecnologica

    Need more information?

    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

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19 February 2021

OTT Security market reaches $452 million, as live sports draw nearer to the direct-to-consumer cliff-edge

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    Live Sports OTT Security Forecast 2018-2026

    Rethink Technology Research finds that the market for protecting Live Sports delivered Over the Top (OTT) will reach $452 million annually, by 2026, as Linear TV viewing declines

    Live Sports are the last bastion of Pay TV, and are held in high regard by the operators and broadcasters. They are the last service tethering customers to their cable and satellite packages, but these operators know that it is a question of when not if, for when the sports leagues pull the trigger and pursue a direct-to-consumer model – leaving the operators to wither on the vine.

    Early experiments have taken root, and are growing into tempting fruit – with sports leagues now evaluating whether an OTT application with no middleman is a better profit margin and customer experience than relying on the operators and their respective deep pockets.

    Accordingly, the market for the security software and services that cater to these OTT services will enjoy strong growth through the period, reaching $452 million by 2026. There are no surprises, in terms of regional performance, but across the board, the amount of Live Sports viewing that takes place on traditional linear TV is declining.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    Amazon, Apple, ArabSat, BeIN Sports, castLabs, DAZN, Facebook, FriendMTS, Google, Intertrust, Irdeto, KBoxServ, La Liga, Microsoft, Nagra, NBA, NFL, Synamedia, TikTok, Twitch, Twitter, Verimatrix, ViaccessOrca, Vitrium

    Need more information?

    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

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4 January 2021

Pay TV and Broadband place their last chips on understanding the customer

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    Pay TV and Broadband place their last chips on understanding the customer

    Customer Journey Management Forecast 2020-2026

    Rethink Technology Research finds that Customer Journey Management offerings will save operators over $10.5 billion in churning revenues over the forecast period

    With a rocky road ahead for their core offerings, triple play operators are having to weaponize customer care in order to keep a hold on their revenues. Traditional OSS/BSS offerings are not up to the job, which has given rise to a new breed of vendors, focused on improving QoS and customer experiences with household-level analytics.

    Rethink TV has grouped these vendors under a new umbrella term, ‘Customer Journey Management’ (CJM), and forecasts that this market will grow to $24.6 billion by 2026 – across the Broadband and Pay TV segments. Through the forecast period, this will save operators $10.5 billion in churning revenues, as high-level, granular analytics allow operators to improve their QoS at a household level.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    3SS, Accenture, AirTies, Alcatel-Lucent, Amazon, Amdocs, ASSIA, Bitmovin, Cerillion, Ciena, Cisco, Comarch, Comcast, Conviva, CSG International, Don River,
    Ericsson, ETI, Facebook, Google, Hitron, HPE, Huawei, IBM, IMImobile, Infosys, Intec, Intraway, Kustomer, MarketONE, MediaKind, Microsoft, NetCracker, Netezza, Nice People at Work, Nokia, Oracle, Plume, Rakuten, Reliance Jio, Salesforce, SoftAtHome, SpaceX, Sweepr, Tech Mahindra, Telcordia, UXP Systems, Veego, Vendicia.

    Need more information?

    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

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28 September 2020

CDN and WebRTC Video Forecast 2020-2025

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    Pure WebRTC services emerge to take share from Private CDN vendors, as total CDN market hits $33 billion by 2025

    Rethink Technology Research finds that Multi-CDN accounts for 72% of Total CDN by 2025, as developing regions with worse Public CDN options surpass North America and Europe.

    As the percentage of global internet traffic that is video creeps up from 69.4% to 75.8%, between 2020 and 2025, Multi-CDN deployments will graduate from commonplace to essential. The Multi-CDN market will grow to $24 billion, as more video services begin using multiple CDN suppliers, to ensure better resilience and quality of service, and to negotiate lower prices from CDN suppliers.

    Amid this battle between Public CDN and Private CDN options, we also expect the emergence of Pure WebRTC distribution services, as an alternative to CDNs. Predominantly targeting live video, and driven by the emergence of the SRT, RIST, and CMAF protocols, these Pure WebRTC services are projected to grow from around 1.2% to 8.3% of total Multi-CDN traffic – as streaming video services turn to cheaper alternatives to CDNs.

    Companies mentioned in this report:

    Akamai, Alibaba, Amazon CloudFront, Anevia, Broadpeak, CDNnow, CDNvideo, CenturyLink
    (Lumen), CloudFlare, Concurrent, Conversant Solutions, Edgemesh, Edgeware, Eluv.io, Fastly, G-CoreLabs, Google, Globecast, Haivision, LimeLight Networks, Livepeer, MediaKind, Microsoft, Nanocosmos, Net Insight, OctoShape, Peer5, PeerCDN, Qumu, Red5 Pro, StreamRoot, Strivecast, Synamedia, Teltoo, Vecima, Velocix, Verizon EdgeCast, Viblast, Vidgo, Wowza, Zixi

    Need more information?

    Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

    [email protected]

    + 44 (0)1962 732886

    Rethink Store

    If you have any questions, please contact [email protected] for more information.
    Prices shown include VAT for UK and EU.

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