Rethink TV

Long Form, Social Media, and Gaming Online Video grow to $171.5 billion market by 2025, as core pay TV market continues decline

Rethink Technology Research finds that long-form video from outside the traditional pay TV ecosystem will grow aggressively, as new generation of viewers strays farther from reach

Our latest Rethink TV forecast demonstrates the slow decline of pay TV, and the rise of the OTT market – both SVoD, and this new sector. So while the growth in SVoD that stems from the conventional TV and movie industry does more than offset the losses we see in pay TV line, what Rethink TV wanted to do was quantify ‘the other’ – long-form video content that does not originate from TV and film studios, that isn’t delivered over pay TV infrastructure, and that is often available freely to viewers.

Defining this sector has been difficult, but we chose to focus on three constituent parts – Long Form online video, Social Media video, and Gaming video. Collectively, for the purposes of this forecast, we’ll refer to them as LSG.

Our research shows how LSG grows faster than SVoD, and is on track to close the gap with pay TV within a couple of decades. That event could be the end of pay TV as we know it and of course sports rights, as they de-couple from pay TV could have a huge part to play in that, and we have already published a forecast on those.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Amazon, AT&T, Comcast, Crunchyroll, Dailymotion, Disney, Facebook, Google, HBO, iQIYI, Le.com, Microsoft, MX Player, Netflix, Peacock, Snapchat, Tencent Video, TikTok, Tune.pk, Twitter, Viki, Vimeo, Viu, Voot, Youku, YouTube

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Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

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+ 44 (0)1962 732886

SVoD FORECAST TO 2025

Rethink Technology Research finds that COVID-19 lockdowns provide an 8.7% immediate lift to the SVoD market, which reaches $72.3 billion and 775.8 million subscribers in 2025

The global Subscription Video on Demand (SVoD) market is projected to be positively impacted by the COVID-19 lockdowns, as consumers turn to SVoD services to fill increased viewing hours and restrictions on movie theater attendance. Disney’s arrival on the global streaming stage could not have come at a more opportune time, and it is projected to soon pass Amazon’s Prime Video viewership, and close the gap on first-place Netflix towards the end of 2025.

The collective streaming providers are the nail in the coffin for traditional pay TV approaches, and it is hard to see how viewers with two or more SVoD services can ever return to the conventional pay TV model. The three streaming providers have had the biggest opportunity to rip market share from the pay TV market handed to them on a plate, and their projected success here means that they will fundamentally alter the viewing habits of hundreds of millions of households

Combined, this is a market that reaches 775.8 million global subscribers, worth $72.3 billion in 2025. That growth comes at the expense of traditional pay TV services, and the uplift expected from the COVID-19 lockdowns will have long-lasting affects. Once kids are locked into an SVoD library, and Disney’s does look particularly enticing, parents are going to be quite reluctant to cancel that service, and when the prices are this low, the SVoD services become very sticky offerings. When measured against our historic projections, we believe that the lockdowns will result in an 8.7% increase in subscriptions, and a 7.9% increase in revenue, in 2020.

Companies mentioned in this report:

AT&T, HBO, Comcast, Sky, Disney, Hotstar, Netflix, Amazon.

Android TV to dominate set tops, trade war shuts door on China

After a decade of predictions that the set top was on its last legs, the endgame is in sight – but far from dying overnight, over the next five years what operators seem to be planning is a dramatic reduction in the list of video operating systems. This is all spelled out in a new report from Rethink Technology Research entitled “How to survive the Set Top Box endgame.”

Android TV, RDK and a handful of other specialist smart TV OSs will come to the fore, mostly at the expense of generic Linux variants, plus a new entry out of China as the US China trade war eliminates what would have been dominance there on Android in favor of Huawei’s Harmony, which will eventually make the transition from Smart TV OS, to full bloodied set tops.

On pure set tops globally Android will reign supreme and make huge gains in Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Although Android will score in North America, it will be held at bay by the resolute rock of RDK, increasingly dominant in the cable sector.

We believe that Android TV will surge to the top of the leaderboard with 24% of global pay TV subscriptions. In North America Android will meet stiff resistance from RDK and meanwhile Huawei’s HarmonyOS will become a major force in China, initially on smart TVs, and then later on set tops.

Companies mentioned in this report

Altice, Amazon, America Movil, Android, Apple, Arris, AT&T, Bharti Airtel, Bourges Telecom, BT, Canal+, Calbevision, Charter, CBS, CenturyLink, Comcast, CommScope, Cox, Cyfrowy Polsat, DAZN, Deutsche Telekom, Dish D2H, Disney+, ER Telecom, ESPN, Fox, Google, Grupo Televisa, HBO, Huawei, Humax, Iliad, KDDI, Korea Telecom, LG, LG Uplus, Liberty Global, Linux Foundation, MEASAT, Multichoice, Netflix, NTT Docomo, Orange, Peacock, Pluto TV, Reliance Jio, Rogers, Roku, Rostelecom, Samsung, Shaw, SoftAtHome, Sun Direct, Tata Sky, Telecom Argentina, Telefonica, Time Warner, TiVo, Tricolor, Tubi TV, UPC, Verizon, Viacom, Vodafone, VTR

Global Forecast on Virtualized Broadband

A boom in virtualization of fixed broadband access infrastructure is developing and will sweep through almost all connections over the next decade, passing the 500 million mark in 2025. That will be 40% of the total 1.26 billion global broadband subscriber base by then, compared with just 0.48% at the end of 2018 and 2.58% now at the start of 2020. These findings have just been reported by Rethink TV, the research arm of Rethink Technologies Research, in its latest report, Broadband Virtualization Accelerates to 500 million connections By 2025.

Except for Africa, virtualization will proceed at a similar pace in all regions with relatively little difference between the telco and rather smaller cable broadband sectors. This reflects virtualization being universally recognized as essential to contain costs and boost efficiencies in a cutthroat broadband market that has become the lifeblood for both cable cos and telcos.

While Comcast on the cable side and telco Deutsche Telekom will be among the strongest early adopters, many operators in developing countries across Asia Pacific and Latin America will be not far behind as they deploy virtualized equipment, expanding footprint and as part of the replacement cycle. Some developing countries will be among the leaders, with Indonesia on course to virtualize 63% of its connections by 2025.
This report is critical to anyone involved in planning a broadband network which many include pay TV operators, telcos or their equipment and software suppliers and investors, at C Suite level down to strategic marketing and planning.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Adtran, America Movil , AT&T, Bezeq, Brocade, BSNL, BT, CableLabs, Calix, CenturyLink, Charter, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, Cisco, Claro, Comcast, CommScope, Cox Communications, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Groupo Clarin, Grupo Televisa, Harmonic, Huawei, Jio Fiber Broadband, Juniper Networks, KDDI, Korea Telecom,  LG Uplus, Liberty Global, Megacable, Net Servicos, Nokia, NTT Docomo, Oi, Orange France, SFR, SK Broadband, Sky UK, Softbank, Telecom Italia, Telecom Egypt, Telefonica, Televisa, Telmex, Turk Telecom, Verizon, Virgin Media, VMWare, Vodafone Kabel Deutschland, ZTE

Addressable Advertising Forecast to 2025

Addressable TV advertising will leap from $26.5 billion in total worldwide revenue in 2019 to almost six times that value at $85.5 billion by 2025. This reflects advertising dollars switching to addressable as the platforms mature and are better understood by the advertising community.
This is the principal finding of the latest Rethink TV report, Addressable Advertising Forecast to 2025 Addressable advertising boom across all regions and platforms.

Aggregation of inventory will be a key driver by increasing the size of addressable targets, making them viable for larger brands and overcoming fragmentation within the ecosystem. The main boost for broadcasters and Pay TV operators is that these adverts fetch higher CPMs (Cost Per 1000 impressions) than general spots broadcast to all viewers of a program.

The boom in addressable TV advertising coincides with a decline in traditional pay TV viewing in some of the leading markets, including the USA. This is reflected in addressable accounting for an increasing proportion of total TV advertising revenue over the next 6 years. In terms of impressions, addressable accounted for just 2.4% of total TV advertising in 2019, rising by about 3.5-fold to 8.5% by 2025. But because addressable ads cost more their revenue contribution is greater, reaching 32.8% or virtually one third by 2025.

The report breaks down the analysis of addressable and online TV advertising by the main geographical regions, identifying key drivers and constraints in each case.

Companies mentioned in this report:

ABC, Alibaba, Amazon, AMC Networks, Apple, AT&T, Baidu, Barclays Bank, British Airways, CBS, Changhong, Channel 4, Clypd, Comcast, Comscore, Discovery, Disney, ESPN, Facebook, Freeform, Free Sheel, Hearst Television,  Hisense, Hotstar, Liberty Global, NBCUniversal, Netflix, Nielsen, Roku, Sky, Skyworth, SportX, Star India, Tencent, Turner, Virgin Media, Vizio, WarnerMedia, Xandr, Xiaomi, Youtube

Sports Rights Forecast to 2025

The rise of streaming is bringing major sporting events to a global audience and pushing up media rights revenues. This will drive media sport rights revenues up 75% over the 7 year period from 2018 till 2025 from $48.6 billion to $85.1 billion.

Association football will increase its already dominant share of that pie from 25.1% ($12.8 billion) in 2018 to 37.4% ($31.9 billion), primarily through increased viewership of Europe’s top leagues in other regions, especially Asia Pacific, including China, and North America. Other sports will also benefit from the fan base expansion generated by globalization and greater streaming distribution, notably basketball.

These are among the primary conclusions of the latest report from Rethink TV, the video forecasting arm of Rethink Technology Research, called Globalization lifts TV sports rights past $85 billion future. Sports Rights Forecast to 2025. A strong subtext of the report is that direct to consumer services are creeping up on the sports rights industry, stealthily with deadly intent for broadcasters. Even technology giants such as Amazon are now disrupting the traditional field of sporting rights will themselves have to adapt to the growing reality of D2C if they are to have a future as major players in sports video distribution.

The report traces revenue changes from media rights for major sports and their leagues in the principal geographies of Europe, North America, China, Rest of Asia Pacific and Rest of World, drilling down into differences by region and sport. We pick out the top few sports and individual leagues in each region and track their progress over the next six years.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Amazon, Apple, AT&T, BeIN Sports, BT, Bundesliga, Campeonato Brasileiro, CCTV, Comcast, CBS, Chinese Super League, Discovery, Disney, Econet, EPL, ESPN, Facebook, FIFA, Formula 1, Fox, Google, IPL, Kwesé TV, La Liga, Ligue 1, MLB, MLS, Multichoice, NBA, NBC, Nippon Professional Baseball, NFL, NHL, PGA Golf, PPTV, Serie A, Sky, Star India, Tencent, UEFA, WeChat