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2024 has seen macroeconomic conditions settle down somewhat. The inflationary pressure of 2023 has eased, leading to a more normal, but now elevated level. The Russian invasion of Ukraine persists, while the tension between China and Taiwan has escalated significantly – leading to a number of major strategic semiconductor projects launched in the US and EU.  

Consumers are as reliant on communications services as ever, but there have been no major changes in the user behavior. Video is still the majority of traffic on these fixed and mobile networks, but there has been some increased interest in voice-based communication – bucking a trend where OTT apps and services had relegated the core telephony functions of these mobile providers.  

The MNOs still suffer from a lack of consumer enthusiasm for 5G, but as we have opined, this is a self-inflicted wound, with marketers and evangelists squarely to blame.  

For the vendors, there has been doubt about the extent of the disruption that Open RAN will provide. As we have just seen with AT&T, even an Open RAN contract can have a single dominant vendor, and the fallout of this deal is just starting to be felt throughout the industry. Open RAN has faltered in 2024, but the trend is far from dead, as some voices would have you believe.  

The industry is already considering the impact of 6G, but has not properly learned the lessons of the 5G rollout – which is far from complete. With 5G Standalone not yet widespread, and plenty of legacy infrastructure headaches to resolve, there is a risk that the MNOs will race too quickly into the next hype cycle.