Revenues forecast to 2024.

Rethink TV, the TV research arm of Rethink Technology Research, has released a forecast of the video revenues for four of the world’s largest pay TV and studio groupings, and finds that the only one that will have rock steady, uninterrupted growth is Netflix.

The other three, including AT&T which has just spent $85 billion buying Time Warner; Disney which has acquired 21st Century Fox for $71 billion, and Comcast which has owned NBC-Universal for a while now and which has just acquired Sky for $39 billion in Europe – will all experience reversals as service cannibalization affects their ability to build streaming revenues .

This is laid out in a stark new report from Rethink TV, entitled, “Disney, AT&T, Comcast stumble in the Netflix slipstream – Revenue forecasts to 2024,” released this week. Existing service customers will get this for free.

The report reveals that AT&T will struggle to accelerate its belief in addressable advertising, while Comcast will do well outside of the US in both advertising and pay TV, but come last in the race for SVoD subscribers. Disney, which holds wild cards in ESPN+ and a massive movie catalog starts from a leading position, but will struggle to make inroads into SVoD globally, despite inheriting some key leading positions in places like India.

The conclusion is that while many will survive to live on, few can thrive overnight and both AT&T and Comcast will continue to be reliant on their cellular and broadband revenues for all growth until beyond the forecast period.

Companies mentioned in this Report:

21st Century Fox, ABC, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, BAMTech Media, Comcast, DirecTV, Discovery, Disney, ESPN, Facebook, Google, GoWatchIt, Hayu, HBO, Hotstar, Hulu, JustWatch, MLB Advanced Media, NBC-Universal, Netflix, Now TV, Sky, Sky Brasil, Sky Mexico, Sony Pictures, Star India, Time Warner, Turner Networks, Viacom, Voot, Vrio, Warner Media, Xandr, Yidio, YouTube

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