The global installed base of Smart TVs and Connected TV devices will reach 4.2 billion units by 2030. While Android-based platforms will account for nearly two-thirds of this expansion, the ecosystem is fracturing, with new OS contenders carving out regional footholds and formerly dominant platforms entering decline. Whether this fragmentation leads to innovation or chaos will depend on how well these alternative platforms can maintain app compatibility and performance standards.

But the forecast is clear: by 2030, smart TVs will dominate in the large-screen connected video devices sector. The OSs that power them, whether Google-sanctioned or not, will be the arenas in which content discovery, advertising, and data collection all occur. For vendors and operators alike, control over this layer will define success in the next era of video. This is no longer a product or UX choice. It’s a hugely political and strategic one.

Rethink TV’s forecast draws on extensive modeling of OS-level market shares, OEM partnerships, app ecosystem dynamics, and regional video infrastructure. The report includes projections across five global regions, offering a granular view of where and how each OS will grow – or fall behind. 

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Rethink TV ‘Devices’ series, 2025:

1. Set Tops 2025-2030 – This report available here
2. Smart TV & Connected TV 2025-2030
3. XR Devices 2025-2030 – Coming Soon – Notify Me