When Darwin laid out the ideas for evolution, he had to leave out some of the detail of just how evolution happens, especially about what speeds it up or slows it down. Later theorists came along and tried to plug the holes.
In the evolution of entertainment on the internet, we suspect that the US TV writers strike, now over, but which lasted a touch less than 3 months, will be one of the major accelerating factors in the evolution of TV onto the internet, along with the invention of YouTube and various technology advances.
At present some 10,500 writers are members of the two unions involved and they are for the most part, safe and secure, working on salaries, plus on a percentage of resale rights or gross revenue, and not having to be too entrepreneurial, like writing speculative scripts for internet sites. The strike was about getting a piece of the action on DVDs and online sales.
In that secure world, most of the good writers are taken, are currently busy and have no vested interest to write for other people, and probably no time or spare creative energy to do so. Of course some of them will have that little something extra that makes them want to experiment with new media, new contract terms and new ideas, but not a majority.
Along comes the strike and suddenly many things happen that have not happened for a while. The best writers in the best paid entertainment economy in the world have a chance to put some work together for the internet; some writers from other markets, other territories, perhaps from the internet, finally get a break as studios take in overseas and non-unionized work and of course the broadcasters get a chance to see what other writers can do. They buy in foreign work and instead of re-writing it for the US, they find it’s fine as it is, no writing needed.
The broadcasters also have to look at their Spring schedules and realize that some commissioned scripts are just not going to arrive in time and so they both make do with less, and put more and more effort into the ones they really believe in.
In total some 100 scripts were cut permanently by ABC, CBS, and Fox during January. That means there will be writers that are no longer quite so gainfully employed, more writers chasing less posts, and more of them forced to experiment with made for internet content.
And this is a year when the Olympics are going to provide all major US channels with content and so less needs to be commissioned. In other words both sides in this dispute will be able to take a long hard look at each other, and re-assess just how much they need each other
Over the past three months many scenarios would have been run which postulated a reaction ‘if they don’t settle’ by such and such a date. And those scenarios will have thrown up lots of ideas on how to be less reliant on those 10,500 writers.
The settlement has opened up DVD and online rights to the writers and that is a double edged sword, because any rise in internet revenues, advertising or subscription, will come at the expense of less people watching scheduled TV broadcasts. The writer will see how much or his or her revenue comes from online delivery, and may be more inclined to experiment and become entrepreneurial in the new space.
Writing fees will last longer as online experiences promote a longer tail for video works, and that means more and more writers will have annuity revenue keeping them financially secure, while less and less writers are needed for new work.
Effectively this strike, along with the recent settlements with directors and any settlements with actors, will mean that the DNA of the entertainment business has changed, and that means evolving to a new way of doing things.
Already contracts that give online and DVD revenues to the broadcasters that fund professional video are coming under scrutiny, and if all TV is viewable over the internet, that in turn will create the route to market for companies that are not currently in the entertainment food chain, broadening those contributing and putting a bigger challenge on those companies that still, like dinosaurs, want to do things the old way.
The next time to touch base with this issue will be when the Upfronts are negotiated in the Spring (discounted volume advertising spend, usually around $15 billion across broadcast and cable, aimed at new season shows), when less new shows will be on show and more and more internet video advertising initiatives will be visible, to attract advertising dollars.