Rethink TV

CDN Forecast to 2024

CDNs will benefit hugely from more and more traffic travelling as high density and “live” video, says a report out this week from Rethink Technology Research’s Rethink TV service.

The new report is entitled, “SRT triggers “live” video surge on global CDNs – CDN Forecast to 2024” and it is part of the Rethink TV series of forecasts, sold as a subscription service.

Video is taking an increasing proportion of CDN traffic and CDNs in turn are expanding their share of all IP traffic. But the main emerging factors will be a surge in live streaming video traffic, and hitched to that a boom in low latency protocols, particularly the SRT (Secure Reliable Transport) and possibly Reliable Internet Stream Transport (RIST) protocols because of their ability to shave latencies much closer to the ultimate limits imposed by the laws of physics.

If you thought the rise of SVoD was fast and extreme, the rise of “live” content will happen even faster and create more changes in both the entertainment landscape and its underlying technology backdrop. SRT has emerged as the protocol of choice for delivering live video as close to “synchronous” as possible.

Live streaming has only just emerged from the shadow of SVoD which has dominated streaming traffic ever since Netflix began ramping a decade ago. Even though SVoD has plenty of room for growth yet, live streaming traffic will rise much more steeply and overtake non live video traffic between 2023 and 2024. Live video accounted for 11 Exabytes compared with total CDN video traffic of 58 EB in 2018, by 2024 it will be 238 EB against 453 EB.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Akamai, Amazon, Amazon Web Services, AT&T, Baidu, Cisco, Comcast, DaCast, Disney, Facebook, FubboTV, Google, Grupo Clarin, Haivision, IBM Cloud Video, Microsoft, Millicast, NBC Universal, Netflix, Peer5, Sky, Skype, Snapchat, Strive, TenCent, Twitter, Vimeo Livestream, Warner Media, WeChat, WhatsApp, Wowza, Youku Tudou, YouTube, YuppTV

For more information contact:
Natalia Szczepanek
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
[email protected]
Office +44 (0)1179 257019

Global DTH revenue set to shed $ billions says new report

Rethink Technology Research’s Rethink TV service has launched a new report which shows how Direct to Home satellite TV (DTH) subscriber falls will accelerate and spread from North America to Europe and eventually to the Far East. Where subscribers numbers rise there will be falls in ARPU.

The new report is entitled, “Who benefits as Global DTH revenue set to shed $ billions – Forecast to 2024” and it is part of the Rethink TV series of forecasts, sold by Rethink as a subscription service.

The decline in DTH will turn out to be terminal, and yet it all began when cable TV began to churn around 2010, a story which spread to the US satellite operators a few years later.

Today the exodus is gathering speed and starting to spread to Europe, leaving operators scrambling to mop up their departing customers via the life rafts of low ARPU OTT.

This makes it impossible to maintain existing high ARPUs at historical levels, and the wheels have just come off for AT&T in the US as DirecTV Now, its stand-alone OTT is seen as an alternative to the main DTH service – both have now been losing subs after initial gains and investors are starting to ask if this is a permanent trend.

And in some parts of the world DTH continues to provide an engine of growth for pay TV – but only in developing markets and only for a short while longer, notably India.

Latin America with it artificially high pay TV ARPU looks less like India and more like the US and sustaining ARPU there will be a thankless challenge.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Amazon Prime Video, America Movil, Astro All Asia Networks, AT&T, BBC, BeIN Media Group, Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board, CanalSat, Cignal, Claro TV, Cyfrowy Polsat, DigiTurk, DirecTV Now, Dish Network, Disney, Eutelsat, Facebook, Federal Communications Commission, Fetch TV, FIFA World Cup, Foxtel, Intelsat, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Kwese, Mediaset, Movistar, MultiChoice, nc+, Netflix, NewsCorp, Oi TV, OneWeb, Orange, RAI, Sky, Sky Life, SKY PerfecTV!, SES, SFR, Sling TV, Space X, Star India, Tata, Telefonica, Tricolor, TrueVisions, Vrio, World Trade Organization, YouTube Premium.

For more information contact:
Natalia Szczepanek
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
[email protected]
Office +44 (0)1179 257019

Revenues forecast to 2024.

Rethink TV, the TV research arm of Rethink Technology Research, has released a forecast of the video revenues for four of the world’s largest pay TV and studio groupings, and finds that the only one that will have rock steady, uninterrupted growth is Netflix.

The other three, including AT&T which has just spent $85 billion buying Time Warner; Disney which has acquired 21st Century Fox for $71 billion, and Comcast which has owned NBC-Universal for a while now and which has just acquired Sky for $39 billion in Europe – will all experience reversals as service cannibalization affects their ability to build streaming revenues .

This is laid out in a stark new report from Rethink TV, entitled, “Disney, AT&T, Comcast stumble in the Netflix slipstream – Revenue forecasts to 2024,” released this week. Existing service customers will get this for free.

The report reveals that AT&T will struggle to accelerate its belief in addressable advertising, while Comcast will do well outside of the US in both advertising and pay TV, but come last in the race for SVoD subscribers. Disney, which holds wild cards in ESPN+ and a massive movie catalog starts from a leading position, but will struggle to make inroads into SVoD globally, despite inheriting some key leading positions in places like India.

The conclusion is that while many will survive to live on, few can thrive overnight and both AT&T and Comcast will continue to be reliant on their cellular and broadband revenues for all growth until beyond the forecast period.

Companies mentioned in this Report:

21st Century Fox, ABC, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, BAMTech Media, Comcast, DirecTV, Discovery, Disney, ESPN, Facebook, Google, GoWatchIt, Hayu, HBO, Hotstar, Hulu, JustWatch, MLB Advanced Media, NBC-Universal, Netflix, Now TV, Sky, Sky Brasil, Sky Mexico, Sony Pictures, Star India, Time Warner, Turner Networks, Viacom, Voot, Vrio, Warner Media, Xandr, Yidio, YouTube

For more information contact:
Natalia Szczepanek
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
[email protected]
Office: +44 (0)1179 257019

SVoD revenue forecast to 2023

“478 million SVoD subscribers today will grow to 743 million by 2023, with China having the most SVoD subscribers by 2023, but North America still driving the largest dollar volume”

SVoD uptake is accelerating and in terms of hours viewing per day it will shortly draw level with broadcast TV globally by 2023.

This global forecast shows the stark contrast between the heavily AVoD Asia compared to the SVoD frenzy going on in the US and Europe. The US market will rise from a combined paid SVoD (including vMVPD) and reach 236.6 million subscriptions by the end of 2023, from a base today of some 146.5 million.

Europe and Asia will be neck and neck in SVoD revenues by 2023, but with far fewer subscribers in Europe, each paying significantly more than those in Asia, a region dominated by frighteningly large Advertising VoD streaming numbers.

Netflix will continue to lead in SVoD in both subscribers numbers (outside of China), but will make up 194 million SVoD customers out of 743 million globally by 2023, some 26% of total global subscribers. In the US Netflix today represents 44% of subscriptions, but will only be 31% of the increased US subscription levels by 2023.

The Asia Pacific market is highly skewed with China expected to amass 245 million SVoD subscribers, some 72% of the total region, but the average spend will be just $2 to $3 a month. Latin American is a three horse race between the leader Netflix, America Movil’s Claro TV and Televisa’s Blim, with US studios looking to play King maker there.

Companies mentioned in this report:

6Play, Acorn TV, Alibaba, Altice, Apple, Amazon, América Móvil, AT&T, Awesomeness TV, BritBox, Blim, Baidu, Canal+, CBS, Cinemax, Claro TV, Crackle, dTV, DirecTV, Discovery, Disney, ESPN+, Eurosport, Facebook Watch, FilmoTV, Fox, France Télévisions, FuboTV, HBO, Hooq, HotStar, Hulu, Iliad’s Free, iQiyi, Kabel Deutschland, KBS, Liberty Global, M6, Magine, Maxdome, MBC, MLB TV, Molotov, MoviStar Play, MTV Play, Netflix, Nickelodeon Play, NTT, Oksusu, Orange Cinema Services, Paramount, PCCW, Philo, PlayStation Vue, Pluto TV, Pooq, PopcornFlix, ProSiebenSat1, Rakuten TV, Reliance Jio, RMC Sport, Roku, RTL, Salto, SBS, SFR-Numericable.

Natalia Szczepanek
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
[email protected]
Office +44 (0)1179 257019

How and when traditional TV advertising value collapses

“Slow dwindling of pay TV subscriptions, starting in the more advanced markets of North America and Europe, but gradually infecting Asia Pacific and Latin America”

Predictions reveal two price corrections in the next 5 years due to the effect of subscription video on demand (SVoD), and the emergence of original content on pay TV subscriptions, and on ratings which essentially drive broadcast advertising revenues.

US broadcasters have been making their advertising more and more expensive to satisfy their shareholders, but the rate of price increases cannot be sustained.

This forecast sees US broadcast TV advertising taking the hit first, a full 20% softening in price, only cushioned by some improved uptake of Addressable advertising. This fall will occur over 2019 and 2020, caused by the rising tide of SVoD and vMVPD viewing, which sees broadcast ratings plummet even further.

A secondary hit will happen when major US sports begin to go online, and in some cases, direct to consumer, lower the interest in live broadcasts. European advertising markets will mimic this behavior later, and slowly so will all TV advertising markets around the world.

Companies mentioned in this report:

ABC, Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, Baidu, BAMTech, BBC, beIN Sports, Benfica TV, Bundesliga, CBS, Comcast, DAZN, Deutsche Telekom, DirecTV, Discovery, Disney, Dorna Sports, ESPN, Facebook, fuboTV, Formula 1, Fox, Gracenote, GolTV, Google, Hulu, International Tennis Federation, iQiyi, Major League Baseball, MoffettNathanson, Movistar, NBC, NFL, Nielsen, Netflix, Orange, ProSiebenSat, Roku, Showtime, Sky, Telefonica, Tencent, Time Warner, Twenty First Century Fox, Ubisoft, Univision Networks, Verizon, Vodafone, Yokou, YouTube, YouView

For more information contact

Natalia Szczepanek
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
[email protected]
Office Phone: +44 (0)1179 257019

US left in China’s wake in the quest for Gigabit broadband

Gigabit broadband growth, faster than expected

“We expect Asia to reach 233 million 1 Gbps lines, Europe 59.6 million, the US 37.7 million and Latin America just 10.7 million. China alone is expected to have 193.5 million.”

While there is an argument that almost no-one currently really needs 1 Gbps quite yet, there have been 1 Gbps fiber services in a number of countries for a number of years, but without earning a wide uptake.

The emergence of 1 Gbps is being tied by operators to Gigabit class WiFi services, themselves just emerging, able to cope with real world workloads in excess of 1 Gbps.

Gigabit broadband will accelerate faster than previous forecasts have imagined, growing tenfold over the next 5 years. After a two year period of being high priced luxuries, 1 Gbps broadband will become commonplace and inexpensive.

China will improve its broadband monumentally, taking 1 Gbps subscribers from 4% of its 456 million households, to close over 42%, in a series of massive build-outs led by China Mobile. And as fiber picks up momentum, the window of opportunity is closing for technologies such as Gfast, G.Now and MoCA Access as more buildings opt for fiber direct to the home or apartment. The one exception is DOCSIS 3.1, which is triggering US cable 1 Gbps installations.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Alibaba, Alcatel, Altice, AT&T, Bell Canada, Broadcom, CenturyLink, Charter, China Mobile, China TieTong, China Telecom, China Unicom, Cogeco, Comcast, Cox, Deutsche Telekom, Frontier, Google, Huawei, Korea Telecom, MoCA, Netflix, Nokia, Reliance, Reliance Jio, Rogers, Sckipio, Shaw, South Korea Telecom and Verizon.

For more information contact
Natalia Szczepanek
Client Relations and Marketing Manager
[email protected]
Office +44 (0)1179 257019