Rethink TV

The state of consumer WiFi is set to transform considerably over the next five years as broadband infrastructure becomes smarter, stronger and more flexible – as operators capture the Multi-AP market. These operators will increasingly deploy WiFi Cloud Management (WCM) software, additional access points for homes (Multi-AP), and new CPE that will lay the groundwork for WiFi 6, WiFi 6E, and eventually WiFi 7.  In our period, WiFi will become significantly ‘smarter’, both due to the increased decisioning capacity for management software that comes with the expansion into the cloud, but also due to the increased flexibility in decision making that is enabled by Multi-AP set ups.  As such, the number of homes with more than one access point (AP) will grow considerably in the next five years, although this number will start to plateau at the market cap in North America by 2026. Globally, Multi-AP technologies will encompass over a quarter of all broadband homes by 2026, at 325 million homes.

Client Review of WiFi Market Forecast

“I spent a weekend deep diving in the 46 page long WiFi Cloud Management forecast from Rethink TV (WiFi Cloud Management Multi-AP, WiFi 6, 6E & 7 Forecast– 2021-2026). The report is packed with forecast statistics on the various WiFi standards, how Managed WiFi is predicted to grow and how many homes are forecasted to be Multi-AP. In addition, it also takes the WiFi client market into perspective as WiFi clients are a driving factor behind the rollout of new WiFi technology in our homes. In addition to all the facts, Rethink TV provides an overview of their private discussions held with all operators and vendors contributing to the report, this was especially interesting as it gave some extra flavour to the reading. All in all, it is a very comprehensive and useful report, a kind of must read for companies in the business of connected home. Thank you, Rethink TV, look forward to follow-ups.”

Conny Franzén, CEO Inteno Group AB

Companies mentioned in this report:
Actiontec, Agem, Airties, Akoustis, Amazon, Apple, Arcadyan, Arris, Assia, ASUS, AT&T, AVM, Bell Canada, Broadband Forum, Broadcom, Calix, Calix, Charter, Comcast, Compal, Broadband, Dell, Devolo, DirectTV, D-Link, FCC, Google, Hitron, HP , Huawei, IEEE, Intel, Lenovo, LG, Liberty Global, Linksys, MediaTek, Netgear, ON Semiconductor, Orange, Panasonic, Plume, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Quantenna, Samsung, Sercomm, Sky, Skyworks, Skyworth, SMC Networks, SoftAtHome, Synology, Taiyo Uden, Technicolor, TP-Link, Ubee, Verizon, WiFi Alliance, Wireless Broadband Alliance, Wyze, Xiaomi, Zyxel

Included with your purchase, you will receive 1-year access to Rethink TV:

• WiFi  report (PDF and XLS)
• ALL previously published reports
• At least 8 NEW reports
• Profiles of the top global Pay TV operators
• Analyst webinars and Q&A sessions

Need more information?

Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

[email protected]

+ 44 (0)7399 491840

There has been a lot of buzz around the concept of Decentralized CDN (D-CDN) recently, but early reports of immense disruption are misplaced. However, as part of the Web 3.0 trend, where centralized cloud computing functions will become distributed across the third-party network edge, D-CDN will play an important role in supporting the inexorable growth of video consumption over the next decade.

To this end, in the period, we expect D-CDN to account for just 114.91 exabytes (EB) of data, by 2026, which is just over 1.1% of total CDN traffic. However, D-CDN will begin to turn heads, as a viable part of a Multi-CDN strategy by this point, and we expect it to grow strongly from the roots that it lays down during the period. Its exponential growth, toward the end of the period, shows no signs of slowing.

This report is critical for anyone that needs to understand the impact that Decentralized CDN and Web 3.0 will have on their business. The incumbent CDN providers are facing a growing hunger for video, and need to find ways to manage this growth inside their core infrastructure. With customers turning to Multi-CDN deployments to ensure that their viewers are always being served the best possible stream, Decentralized CDN will fit inside a Multi-CDN strategy.

This report includes:

• Numbers you can drop straight into your business case.
• An expectation of the shape of the Multi-CDN and Decentralized CDN market through 2026.
• A clear understanding of the initial scope of this market, without hype.

Companies mentioned in this report: AIOZ Network, Akamai, Alibaba, Amazon, Anevia, Audius, AWS, Axel, BitSong, BitTorrent, BitTube, Broadpeak, CDNnow, CDNvideo, CloudFlare, Concurrent, Conversant Solutions, D.tube, Decent, Edge Networking, Edgemesh, Edgeware, Eluvio, Ethereum, Fastly, FileCoin, Flixxo, G-CoreLabs, Globecast, Google, Haivision, LBRY, Letmesee, LimeLight Networks, Livepeer, Lumen, MediaKind, Microsoft, MovieBloc, Nanocosmos, Net Insight, NETNIC, NKN, Peer5, PeerCDN, Poseidon Network, Protocol Labs, Qumu, Red5 Pro, Ridge, Sia, Storj, Strivecast, SWRM Labs, Synamedia, Syntropy, Tachyon, Teltoo, Theta Network, Tron, Vecima, Velocix, Verizon, Vevue, Viblast, VideoCoin, Vidgo, W3C, Watchit, Wowza, Yahoo, YCombinator, Zoom.

Need more information?

Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

[email protected]

+ 44 (0)7399 491840

Cloud Production undergoes baptism of fire, as pandemic pushes remote technologies to the fore, with Sport the biggest driver

The move towards cloud-based production environments has been rapidly accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has forced the video ecosystem to quickly shift to a new way of working, using cloud-based production techniques to solve the physical separation of their workforce.

The conventional thought that has dictated so many technology purchasing decisions, that all members had to be within arm’s reach, has been challenged by the pandemic, with cloud and remote production proving their worth. This trial by fire has shown that new techniques can be deployed, enabling new use cases and cost efficiencies inside a typically conservative industry.

Put simply, we expect total production costs in the video industry to grow from $291 billion in 2020 to around $376 billion in 2026. This comprises a lot of costs that are not part of Rethink’s usual technology focus, and so, we believe that Cloud Production revenues will rise from $601.87 million in 2020 to $2.48 billion in 2026. Growth is not delineated by regions, and will not be until this market has matured significantly.

This report is critical for stakeholders in the content creation industry, as well as those who are responsible for delivering that video to viewers. A raft of new technologies are taking root, which will significantly alter the production landscape – creating opportunities for those in the distribution realm to have a greater stake in the production market.

Companies mentioned in this report: Accsoon Technology, Adobe, Agama Technologies, Amagi, Amazon, Appear, Apple, Aspera, Ateme, Autodesk, Avid, Bitmovin, Blackbird, BlackMagic, Box, Brightcove, Canon, Cerberus, Corel, CyberLink, Dejero, Dropbox, Edius, EVS, Filmora, Frame.io, Globecast, Google, Grass Valley, Haivision, Harmonic, HitFilm, Hollyland, Inkee, JVC, Kaltura, Latakoo, Lightworks, LiveU, Live X, Magix, Maven, Media Silo, MediaKind, Microsoft, Nero, Net Insight, Nevion, Ooyala (Dalet), Open Broadcast Systems, Panasonic, Pinnacle, Pix, Red Bee Media, Ross Video, SampleDigital, Shift, Signiant, Sony, SWIT, Teradek, The Switch, Vaxis, Vimeo, WireDrive, Wondershare, Z-Cam, Zixi

Need more information?

Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

[email protected]

+ 44 (0)7399 491840

Android TV shines in set tops and Smart TVs as global pay TV market declines, but Huawei’s HarmonyOS poised to surge

Android TV and Huawei’s HarmonyOS are set to dominate the coming years across both the shrinking footprint of operator set tops, and the ballooning number of smart TVs and connected TV (CTV) devices.

Pay TV Households will decline from an estimated 921 million in 2020 to 680 million in 2026, impacting the annual shipments of Operator Set Tops, which falls from 242.6 million to 184.8 million, propped up by the upgrade cycle for new Set Top Box operating systems.

This means that the install base for set tops is set to decline from 1.21 billion in 2020 to 824.67 million in 2026, while the Smart TVs & Connected TV Devices segment is expected to grow from an installed base of 497 million in 2020 to 905 million in 2026.

Operators will ditch resource-thirsty legacy Linux-based Proprietary set tops as their footprint of pay TV homes starts to decline around the world, with the market share such systems falling from around 85% in 2020 to 48% in 2026. This transformation will see a global uptick in Android TV and HarmonyOS set tops, with RDK making some progress in Europe and keeping hold of the US market.

Globally, Android TV Operator Tier will grow from around 5% of the installed operator set top base to some 23%, in 2026. RDK, meanwhile, is only expected to grow from 6% to 10%, even with interest from Tier 1 operators in Europe. Almost doubling your footprint would normally be a cause for celebration, but when compared to Android TV Operator Tier’s success, it is not as emphatic.

Linux is also set to decline in the world of smart TVs and CTV devices, as LG’s WebOS, Samsung’s Tizen and Roku’s platform lose ground to the rise of Android TV and Huawei’s HarmonyOS. This will also drive out Chromecast and AOSP-based installations, with former’s decline catalyzed by a decline in demand for CTV devices as device replacement cycles lead smart TVs become the standard first screen in the home.

Android TV is set to reach 25% share of Smart TVs and Connected TV Devices by 2026, representing an estimated 236 million of a total 905 million devices.

Perhaps the standout feature of our findings is the rise of HarmonyOS. The trade dispute between China and the US, with resulting concerns over access to Android updates, has galvanized the Chinese government to push for a major independent national OS, with HarmonyOS the apparent preferred candidate. The long-term consequences for Google and Android of this trade dispute could be enormous and almost entirely negative.

In the short term, Huawei and others will continue to favor Android for set top and other connected devices, including smartphones and tablets – leading to growth in China for Android, initially. However, the likely longer-term direction is towards HarmonyOS as a ubiquitous cross-platform OS that will also increasingly take on Android in neutral markets outside China – especially in APAC and Latin America.

Companies mentioned in this report: 3SS, Accedo, Access, ADB, AirTies, Alticast, Amazon, Amino, Amlogic, Amstrad, Apple, Arris, Askey, Broadcom, Canal+, Comcast, CommScope, Coship, Cox, EchoStar, Ensys, Espial, Google, Hisense, HiSilicon, Huawei, Humax, Intek, Intel, Kaon Media, LG, Marvell, Metrological, Microsoft, Myrio, Nagra, Netgem, Nokia, Orange Networks, Oregon Networks, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Radix, Reference Design Kit (RDK), Roku, Sagemcom, Salt, Samsung, SeaChange, Skyworth, Sony, SPB TV, Sumitomo Electric, Synamedia, Tata Elxsi, Tatung Technology Inc, TCL, Technicolor, Thomson, TiVo, Tru2Way, Vestel, Vewd, Viaccess-Orca, Videoscape, ViXS, Vizio, Witzivi, Wyplay, Zappware, Zenterio

Need more information?

Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

[email protected]

+ 44 (0)1962 732886

HEVC fallout damages VVC adoption, AV1 grows on back of Android TV and OTT, LCEVC takes root, in $7.8 billion annual royalty market

The arrival of a new generation of video codecs, the first designed for our streaming-first media and entertainment world, will disrupt the transcoding market substantially, over the course of the next ten years.

The next generation of codecs are set to be more costly, and this means that the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for video device royalties will grow 146% to $8.42 billion in the decade following 2020. Meanwhile, the Service Obtainable Market (SOM), what we believe to be the likely path, will grow to $7.62 billion in 2030. This means that patent pools will be collecting ever more royalties from the available market, with the total SOM reaching over 90% of the TAM by the end of the period.

This report is critical for anyone who wants to understand how transcoding workloads are going to dramatically shift in the next decade as the next generation of codecs arrive. The answer sheds light on how OEMs will have to loosen their purse strings to keep up with consumer demand and puts a cool-headed roadmap on how and when these changes will likely take place.

Companies mentioned in this report: Access Advance, Alliance for Open Media (AOMedia), Altera, Amazon, AMD, Apple, ARM, Ateme, AWS Elemental, Beamr, Bitmovin, Cisco, Dolby, Dolby Labs, Encoding.com, Ericsson, ETRI, Facebook, Fraunhofer, Fujitsu, GE, Godo Kaisha IP Bridge, Google, Harmonic, Huawei, IBM, IEC, Intel, InterDigital, ISO, ITU, JVC Kenwood, LG Electronics, Maxell, Media Coding Industry Forum (MC-IF), MediaKind, MediaTek, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electric, Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG), Mozilla, MPEG Licensing Administration (MPEG LA), MVMO, NAB, NEC, Netflix, NTT, Nvidia, On2 Technologies, Orange, Panasonic, Philips, Qualcomm, Samsung, Sharp, Sisvel, SK Telecom, Sky Italia, SmugMug, Sony, Synamedia, Tagivan, Tata Elxsi, Telecom Italia, Thaicom, Toshiba, Tremmen, Tecnologica

Need more information?

Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

[email protected]

+ 44 (0)1962 732886

Rethink Technology Research finds that the market for protecting Live Sports delivered Over the Top (OTT) will reach $452 million annually, by 2026, as Linear TV viewing declines

Live Sports are the last bastion of Pay TV, and are held in high regard by the operators and broadcasters. They are the last service tethering customers to their cable and satellite packages, but these operators know that it is a question of when not if, for when the sports leagues pull the trigger and pursue a direct-to-consumer model – leaving the operators to wither on the vine.

Early experiments have taken root, and are growing into tempting fruit – with sports leagues now evaluating whether an OTT application with no middleman is a better profit margin and customer experience than relying on the operators and their respective deep pockets.

Accordingly, the market for the security software and services that cater to these OTT services will enjoy strong growth through the period, reaching $452 million by 2026. There are no surprises, in terms of regional performance, but across the board, the amount of Live Sports viewing that takes place on traditional linear TV is declining.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Amazon, Apple, ArabSat, BeIN Sports, castLabs, DAZN, Facebook, FriendMTS, Google, Intertrust, Irdeto, KBoxServ, La Liga, Microsoft, Nagra, NBA, NFL, Synamedia, TikTok, Twitch, Twitter, Verimatrix, ViaccessOrca, Vitrium

Need more information?

Roz Hilton (Business Development Director, Video Technologies)

[email protected]

+ 44 (0)1962 732886