Mobile broadband will replace fixed line broadband within two years, according to experts spoken to by the Times of London. The paper, owned by News Corp, said that experts predict that by 2010 the mobile phone networks, presumably including whatever WiMAX and LTE networks have been built by then, ‘will have overtaken home broadband as the primary way of connecting to the Web.’
Dongles, external devices that plug into a PC’s USB port and convert wireless to behave like a fixed line broadband service, will be the standard, not wires, the paper said.
WiMAX makers and services are promising WiMAX dongles this year that will allow desktop and laptop PCs to connect to WiMAX networks. A number of cellcos and PC makers have dongles for laptops that allow them to access the Net wirelessly via the cellcos’ mobile phone network.
The paper quoted UK research company You Gov as saying that one person in ten regularly accesses the Net on a PC by connecting to a cellular network despite services having only been recently available. And, one-third of them only connect to the Net via a cellular network. And, that’s at very slow speeds even on 3G networks when compared to wireline broadband.
What’s driving the move to wireless broadband are a number of factors:
Mobile broadband speeds are increasing. With 3G, speeds are at about what wireline broadband was when it was first launched, in the 1 Mbps to 1.5 Mbps range. WiMAX and LTE promise speeds equal to those consumers now get at home in the 6 Mbps to 10 Mbps range.
Also cellcos are cutting the monthly charges and perhaps more importantly are introducing fixed cost data plans so the subscriber doesn’t get hit with an unexpectedly high bill. Apple and the cellcos that sell its iPhone have packaged cellular and Wi-Fi broadband access together to make it easy for users to stay connected.
Services and applications are being developed specifically for using over mobile networks. Nokia, Yahoo, Google, Apple, RIM (Blackberry maker) and others are in a race to dominate the mobile software and services market, and operating systems for mobile devices are improving by leaps and bounds.
Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, Google’s Android, Nokia-backed Symbian and various mobile Linux versions are leading the charge to develop user-friendly, high-function operating systems.
The report also points out that students have grown accustomed to wirelessly connect at their universities and the coffee shops and pubs they frequent, while laptops have become the most popular type of PC, especially for those on the move.
New applications are being developed that make sense only on mobile devices such as location based ones. ‘Where’s the nearest restroom?’ ‘Where I can get a hair do?’ ‘What’s the best night club in the neighborhood?’
‘This trend is as significant as the shift from home to mobile phones that took place in the mid Nineties,’ a spokesman for the price comparison site Top 10 Broadband told the paper. ‘We predict that by 2010, mobile broadband will overtake home broadband as the default way to access the Internet in the UK.’ The Times said Broadband Expert, another comparison site, made a similar prediction.
The paper said that 3, in early with a mobile broadband service, offers 18-month broadband contracts which include 3GB of content ? the equivalent of six to ten hours of video on the BBC iPlayer for £15 ($30) a month. Existing 3 customers pay an additional £7.50 ($15) a month.
A study by Broadband Expert in March showed the average speed for mobile broadband providers was 1.46 Mbps, certainly an acceptable speed for many and for most applications.