When the Berlin wall fell it was a time of surprises and one that eventually came out in the openness that marked the unification of Germany was the fact that yes, those East German athletes had all been taking illegal substances to enhance their performances.
We had known it all along, but somehow the opacity of the iron curtain had made it impossible to ask the question. What was surprising was the depth of the conspiracy and how it had become systematic and was carried out by the state, without any athlete even able to say no.
When the story of US television is told, we suspect that with 25 years of hindsight, something similar may be said about the digital video recorder and the way it changed the face of advertising, invalidating much broadcast TV advertising, driving advertisers ‘en masse’ towards the internet.
Back in July, in a statement that we ridiculed, the chief marketing offer of Nielsen proclaimed that ‘Commercial television is alive and well – growing 1% year over year – despite the rapid adoption of other platforms. Moreover, timeshifting represents less than 5% of total viewing.’ Nielsen has been instrumental in convincing the advertising industry that any programming that is consumed on the same day, even if it is timeshifted, should count towards broadcasters advertising payouts.
Well this week TiVo pointed out that almost 60% of programming, viewed in the massively significant advertising period from 8 pm until 10 pm, was viewed as timeshifted among people who use its TiVo service. How comfortably does that sit with the statements the Nielsen makes about timeshifting. Is it 5% or 60%, or something in between? The poor advertiser needs to know that his money is not being fast forwarded through.
TiVo has gone further and very honestly (because it doesn’t gain anything from this) revealed which timeslots and which adverts have the least amount of fast forwarding. And the TiVo data doesn’t come from the imperfect memory of some audience sample, it comes from the remote controls of its customers, through its StopWatch audience measurement service.
According to its StopWatch ratings service, an analysis of broadcast networks ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC depicted high levels of Timeshifting between the primetime hours of 8pm and 10pm, with a significant decrease thereafter, as viewers transitioned to live viewing or watched the timeshifted programs). In fact, the ratings demonstrate that the 9pm timeslot was the most heavily Timeshifted hour with 59% of viewers opting to record programming during this hour and watch it later. The 8pm timeslot was a close second with 58% Timeshifted viewing, followed by the 10pm hour with only 53% of viewers watching in Timeshifted mode and 47% tuning in live.
Let’s be clear about this, viewers are watching programs later so that they can fast forward through advertising when they watch their favorite programs. And that’s some of the most expensive prime time advertising that US television has to offer.
Todd Juenger, Vice President & General Manager, TiVo Audience Research & Measurement, said, ‘These findings underscore the fact that all broadcast primetime timeslots are not created equal. According to our research, when a television is attached to a DVR, not only is a majority of broadcast network programming between 8pm and 10pm viewed in Timeshifted mode, but, perhaps more importantly, 30% of this Timeshifted viewing takes place within an hour of airing. So, it comes as no surprise that the 10pm timeslot is getting squeezed from both sides.
Much of the Timeshifted viewing from the 8pm and 9pm airings walk all over the audience that would historically watch 10pm programming
in Live mode. For example, in February according to the StopWatch ratings service, the average Live household rating for a 10pm program was 3.2, while Timeshifted viewing within one hour from 9pm
programs was 1.2 ‘ 38% of the Live 10pm audience. But the 10pm programming also has a backstop from the 11pm news (or bedtime). While some viewers will record programs aired at 10pm for viewing
later in the week, many are abandoning that hour of television altogether.’
TiVo’s also revealed that commercials geared toward employment opportunities and investing from Monster.com and E*Trade Financial,
respectively, caught the attention of many viewers and were among the least fast-forwarded brands. What is surprising is that despite the historically low number of new car purchases in the US, a number of car commercials including Mercedes Benz, Hyundai, Lexus and Nissan were among the brands least skipped by viewers with consumers keeping an eye out for special deals.
Equally surprising not a single theatrical film advert made the least fast-forwarded list perhaps a sign that consumers are either not all that interested in what was playing in theaters or, more likely, that despite what’s in theaters consumers are opting for in-home entertainment.
Least Fast-Forwarded Brand Ranking Broadcast Networks
1. Monster.Com Emp Svc Online
2. GE General Electric Co Cp
3. Dennys Restaurant
4. Hyundai Auto&Trk Var
5. E Trade Financial Online
6. Hulu Online
7. Mercedes Benz Trucks Glk 350
8. Blackberry Hand Held Computer
9. Alli Reducing Capsule
10. Chilis Grill&Bar Rest
Least Fast-Forwarded Cable & Broadcast Networks
1. Budweiser Beer
2. E Trade Financial Online
3. Tv.Com Online
4. Tyson Anytizers Frozen Prepared Chicken
5. National Assn/Realtors
6. Lexus Trucks Rx
7. Brawny Paper Towels
8. Target Stores Inc Cp
9. Nissan Autos&Trk Var
10. Royal Caribbean Cruises
The StopWatch ratings results were from February 2009 viewing and the service was introduced in February 2007.
Any advertiser that finds a discrepancy between the TiVo numbers and the wider Nielsen numbers has to realize that Nielsen is sampling homes, many of which do not have a DVR, where ALL of the TiVo homes have a DVR by definition. But this still leaves a lot of question marks over what the technology is doing to advertising and broadcasting, while TiVo probably holds many of the answers, with its advanced understanding of DVR based advertising, of how to keep broadcast advertising alive.