It turns out that that Netbooks are not yet dead, they are merely in the process of dying. Netbooks may reach 36 million units in 2010, says US researcher Techaisle who has re-iterated its forecast for Netbooks made earlier in 2009, and thinks that while businesses are driving sales of Netbooks this year, the trend will hit a wall in 2011.
In 2009, depending on which researcher you cite Netbooks doubled in shipments to around 33 million. Techaisle says that this will then be followed by a a growth of just 13% in 2010.
Business netbook penetration says Techaisle, will be 5.3% and consumer netbook penetration will be 1.8%. There will be a short and transient shift of netbook purchases among consumers from some mature markets into a few newly emerging markets in 2010.
In particular European businesses will continue to adopt netbooks “in decent numbers” during the same timeframe, and they are especially popular with small retail shop owners, Techaisle said. From 2011 onwards the netbook market will show a damped growth curve until 2013 and 2014.
“We firmly believe the netbook device is developing into an interesting but niche product segment” – says Anurag Agrawal of Techaisle, adding “only those vendors who will quickly understand the boundaries of such niche will truly be able to maximize on the ROI and capitalize on its opportunities”.
Techaisle seems to be crowing that it always felt that Netbooks were going to hit a wall in 2010, but to put out a release which never mentions the arrival of the iPad and its effect on Netbook sales is to miss the obvious. Apple has legitimized the tablet, so prospective netbook clients, for the most part are putting off their purchases until they see what tablets have to offer. And Netbook makers are rushing to enter the tablet wars.
Crowing that rival ABI Research over-estimated Netbook growth saying that 60 million would ship in 2010 is a bit trite. Had the iPad never been rumored and then launched, they might have.