It’s good to have a long memory. When the PC was being discussed as a success or failure, let’s say around 1979, no one really knew what you’d use one for. Then applications began arriving in droves, mostly things came off minicomputers, which had previously required masses of compute power, and were simplified ‘ to do things like run financial models (spreadsheets), handle project management, and automate word processing and run live accounting.
There were generic applications which everyone eventually needed, but also there were many specialist ideas, which financial modeling was an example of, which slowly became generic. Today most schoolchildren can use a spreadsheet and everyone can use a browser.
We have parallels to this among modern portable device and the question is whether a single generic device is going to come out of the phone or the tablet (or a hybrid of both) and if so, can we see what it might have to look like?
This discussion first materialized when our financial partner (TownHall Research) asked if perhaps Tablets might be a much bigger thing than most observers had previously considered. And when we thought about it we found ourselves in wild agreement and thinking about just how devices might turn out in the long term future.
So let’s analyze this out.
If you just blurt out all the functions that might come on a handset or tablet, we think they fall into 3 categories, those which a phone does best, those which a tablet does better and those which you might usually need a PC or something larger for. Some, like diary keeping, some people still believe are better left off devices altogether, and are mostly kept on paper.
Perhaps we might call these Small Portable Devices (SPDs), Tablet Portable Devices (TPDs) with a screen size of 7 to 10 inches, and the notebook and netbook might be Quasi Portable Devices (QPDs) with screens above 10 inches and professional hard keyboards.
Why wouldn’t we call the SPD a phone? Well it might include devices like the iPod Touch? And why not call the Tablet a tablet? Well it might also include hybrid ebook readers and some touch based netbooks. Finally why not call the QPD a notebook? This is because it includes some netbooks and UMPCs. It’s really very simple ‘ light enough to put in your pocket, not quite that light, but put it in any bag, or so heavy it needs its own bag and uses so much battery and needs you to also carry the power supply with it most of the time. Those are the distinctions we thought were worth making.
Off the top of our heads these are the types of use cases that come to mind: Core voice calling functions, audio player, camera and video camera, portable TV and 3D video viewer, handheld games console, mobile internet device, portable updates for social networks, a generic messaging client, taking in instant messaging, multimedia messaging, SMS and email; an ebook and pdf reader; a compass, set of maps, GPS device, contact manager, clock and alarm clock, storefront for apps, music and video stores; wireless router, diary, local search capability (think yellow pages); local news provider, personal weather man. But there are other, currently obscure functions that are clearly on their way. A near field communications transaction client, and the identity manager you will need with that to act as a credit card or passport, or to hold ID cards or travel and arena tickets, or office passes; a set top box, a pico-projector, office applications such as Powerpoint and Word and a VoIP client. Augmented reality players such as Layar certainly have to be on a portable client otherwise there would be no point to them.
Any modern business employee could use virtually every one of these functions at some point.
To us the ones that fit best in a phone are easy to work out. If you have these now in your phone but do not have them in other devices, then they belong in a small portable device (SPD). These might vary from person to person, but could be voice calling, audio player, camera and video camera, a messaging client for MMS, SMS and perhaps email. Most people already prefer their phone for contact managers, clock and alarm clock, diary and as a storefront for Apps, Music and video, although some of these may be transferring to tablets in preference shortly, such as video acquisition. Certainly you might argue that phones are about to take on location ‘ so that includes a compass, set of maps, GPS device. Local search is provided by Google and Navteq and are on all manner of device, but are currently under utilized, in terms of people actually looking for local services. As this develops we suspect people will want it on all three device types, but certainly on the most portable of devices, what we are calling today the SPD.
But as of now only one or two phones also act as wireless routers, and most routers which take in wireless broadband signals and give off WiFi for one or more other device, are either dongles requiring power from a PC or they are discreet, home based devices. In the long run, the battery requirement really makes this a natural part of the medium sized product, the TPD.
Weather news like many of these apps, can be either be on the SPD or the TPD, depending upon the graphical level required, you don’t feel the need to check the weather more than once or twice a day. There is an app for that on the Touch and these Apps are well used.
NFC is clearly something which requires identity checking, and so needs a SIM card or similar (in US phones there is no SIM but it’s a piece of the CDMA modem chip) A transaction client and identity manager have to be with you at all times in the way that you would take your wallet with you. As NFC EPOS terminals are slowly installed around the world touching a device or a card to a terminal will pay for things in seconds. NFC could also become a set of keys to your car or home, so it is vital to be in your possession at all times.
A set top box has been a fairly bulky item in the past, although it depends what technology you are using, cable, IPTV, satellite or pure Web TV. But really most of what happens on it uses a single SoC chip, but they do consume rather a lot of power, and given that most enlightened TV operators are moving towards IP delivered versions of TV (placeshifting, TV Everwhere, Hulu and iPlayer) that power requirement will eventually come down, but not yet. So really this is a TPD function if you want it portable.
As for the pico-projector, we think the need for it will mostly evaporate, because all of the devices we are discussing here can either offer TV out, or have big enough screens to share. Enterprise use of Powerpoints can mostly remain on the QPD or be called from the cloud or will fit nicely on the TPD.
Word and email are really the main apps they require a fast keyboard, and initially we might conclude that for this we need a PC of some kind, but do we? It’s true that typing on a physical keyboard is almost twice as fast as typing on a touch screen keyboard. But if you have a set of home accessories for holding (and recharging) your TPD, the screen is fine for viewing emails, and a separate high speed keyboard for use at the desk, is perhaps all we need.
For things like a VoIP client, we need that on our most portable device, but its real function is to keep down the cost of calls for international calls, using data instead of voice. This probably goes away in the LTE era, since data and voice are carried the same way in 4G
Finally that leads us to augmented reality players, such as Layar, and certainly these need to be on a portable client, because they need to be held up and use their cameras to show you local views and superimpose data over the images.
Things like augmented reality and maps are typical applications that might move seamlessly between the SDP and the TPD, and although they have a place on QPDs, as long as you have the other two, there is no need for them there. Games are another potential for both sizes. You may have no room to carry a TPD but still have dead moments in your day when you resort to gameplay. But the TPD will give visual games a better feel.
Touch makes a difference throughout. Touch screen SPDs have typically much larger screens than older handsets and this creates a number of moveable points where the optimal playing device is somewhere between the two ‘ modern touch handset or touch player or a tablet design.
Voice control, as it improves, will make more of a difference, but currently it requires too much processing power, as do futuristic features like image recognition. These are no brainers for using the cloud and remote image recognition is something that we know Google is working on, where you use a phone camera to view an image, send it off to Google to be identified and it tells you what it is and where you can buy it or whatever else you want to do with it. That’s probably best with your best camera, and if you are committing a transaction probably best in the long run if your identity is used to confirm your credit card details. This week (see elsewhere in issue) Apple is rumored to be preparing to bring NFC and mobile commerce into the next iPhone. So the camera needs to be on the same device as the identity. You might suggest that such a facility can be on an existing camera, but how would it facilitate a broadband connection and authenticate a transaction? Sure you could put a credit card into software on your camera, and give it a W-CDMA chip, but why go to the trouble when your phone already has a camera and it’s getting better every year?
Where we are arriving with this analysis is becoming pretty clear, Tablets are needed for big screen activities such as watching TV, especially HD and 3D images, for playing more graphical games, as a way of working with full sized web pages, and as a bigger screen for writing longer emails and for reading ebooks. It can also take on battery hungry workloads, whether plugged in or not, such as acting as a wireless router, an IP set top box, and also for running office applications such as Powerpoint and Word (or their ARM/Android equivalents).
Where consumers want to go to a store to buy Apps, Music or video stores, it will be better if both devices are present, the SIM card based identity features for ensuring you are you in the transaction, and the tablet screen for viewing them before buying.
The conclusions are becoming fairly clear. You need a small device in your pocket and another, larger battery operated portable device. One of them can hold all the battery heavy features, the other can verify you are who you say you are.
We don’t think a single device can do all of this, but if you add improved server capabilities in the cloud, then the Notebook and even the PC can begin the process of disappearing, once this eco-system is fully in place, in say two to three years, and take at least another entire decade for that process to reach maturity.
There are various decisions to be made on the way, but we think that these two devices are best put together in symbiosis. The 3G or 4G signal can belong entirely to the SPD, it would need to plug into the TPD (to become one unified device) and then the combined device can become a MiFi router, with the bigger battery drain coming at the TPD which generates outgoing WiFi connections to other devices. These devices could run separately or together, so the TPD could run with WiFi only, but will need to properly identify itself in order to get cellular service and that might mean plugging in the other class of device. Of course we may be wrong. 3G and 4G baseband connectivity may become so cheap that they may appear in multiple devices. But such a route would allow for a lot more identity theft, and a lot more identity resolution (multiple devices can be the same person, access the same accounts). So our vote goes to two portable devices, little and large, working in symbiosis. By large we mean around one pound in weight, no more.
We’re sure that many companies will make one or the other, and plenty will eventually make both, but who will have the imagination to work out how they work together to become a best of both eco-system for every function we have discussed?
What you end up with is a continuum of functions sliding easily between two device form factors, with auto sync capabilities and enough security to become your credit card and passport, and enough ease of use that no-one has to go on a training course to use one.
The only question that remains is how long will we need a PC for at all? Sure enterprises will stick with an outmoded PC for a full decade before it becomes obsolete, but the writing is clearly on the wall. Sell your Dell and HP stock.