Back in 2004 we realized that flat TV screens, preferable large, over 40 inch screens, offering HDTV, would become the standard more rapidly than every research company has projected. We issued estimates which were double the rate of uptake of any forecast, and later found that we were far too conservative. But that’s the TV market for you.
Gaining access to internet held video was always going to be a repeat of this development, which takes place more or less in one cycle of the market. Rounding up the numbers the TV market is 1.4 billon devices replaced on average every 7 years, meaning that 200 million devices are sold each year. In 2004 the first flat TV screens were limited to the top end of the market and were very expensive. That’s because LCD technology, pretty widespread on smaller screens, was still tough to get to work on larger screens. The speed of ramp was thought to be fairly pedestrian because those prices would take time to come down. Vast amounts of money were gambled on buying a position at the LCD technology table by building plant and in basic R&D.
This February US researcher DisplaySearch set the quarterly demand for flat TV screens at 57.7 million units, down slightly due to the recession, so that total was closer to 240 million devices a year due to the number of countries making changes to digital TV. Selling prices were also falling radically due to recession and economies of scale and all that’s going to do is accelerate uptake.
So today almost all of the TVs on the market are flat TV screens, either plasma or LCD, with a handful of OLED, and so the full cycle of replacement has begun. By 2016 you will find it strange if you ever see an old CRT TV, they will be museum pieces. And there was enough money in the market that it only took 5 years to accelerate the technology to the point where this was feasible, from early device introduction.
At about the same time (2004) we pictured a future where TV was more like the internet. Where a search could find you programs, whether they were on your own TV, your PC, a home server, on your handset, on a broadcast channel now or in the near future, or on remote VoD systems, including the open internet. A small video search start up blinkx shared that vision and at the time we interviewed the CEO, Suranga Chandratillake, who was just ‘building traffic’ and had yet to decide upon ‘one of many possible’ business models.
Our point is simply this, that attachment of TV sets to internet video will take off even more rapidly than LCD flat screens, because less investment is required. So services which are primed to offer technology to make this more attractive, are likely to gain great traction and investment attention.
Today blinkx is doing fine but still coming up with ideas, and it is finally trying to make the step where its technology is available through a TV set, in a deal it has just cut with Miniweb to make all of that search technology, and more importantly all of the content from 450 partners, which it has indexed to create 35 million hours of video (think of its as 4,000 years!) available to TV sets.
The Miniweb service shares the Sky main menu alongside with Sky’s own interactive content and delivers an alternative ‘red button’ services powered by Ensequence technology in a similar way. The miniweb service can work with any broadcasters with transmit through Sky, and all the 9 million subscribers to Sky’s service. This allows viewers on any Sky channel to reach interactive content.
Miniweb’s service is designed to make it easy for broadcasters to embed a TV Key into content which links the show to interactive content held on the web, reachable through the remote control, for shopping, further information, gambling and voting. A TV Key is a numeric code which acts like a URL when keyed into the remote.
Now this will begin being powered by blinkx software tools in the back end, offering video search, syndication, recommendations, targeting and personalization as part of the miniweb online services platform. But at the same time it will allow audiences to search internet video from blinkx where the TV has a broadband connection.
Sky TVs are not automatically connected to broadband, but if these two could convince BT to join in this initiative, it relies on its TVs being broadband connected. That would really open the door. Also if (when) Project Canvas gets approved, there will be a huge number of TV sets which have this kind of access in the UK.
‘Combining broadcast and broadband TV will provide audiences with access to an incredibly rich and diverse universe of video content,’ said Suranga Chandratillake, founder and CEO, blinkx. ‘As the leader in video search, blinkx is ideally suited to help viewers navigate this universe, both through search and through recommendations. Miniweb is a true visionary in the Interactive TV space and we’re thrilled to be included as part of its platform to help enable personalized online video and give viewers access to a wide range of additional entertainment through their TVs.’
blinkx was always definitely going to come into its own once a doorway could be formed between the TV set and the internet.
‘We’re pleased to include blinkx’s market leading video search, recommendations and personalization technology as a core function within our platform,’ said Andrew Carver, CEO of Miniweb. ‘We’re seeing great interest from network operators, content owners and TV device manufacturers in our platform as it helps them deliver and manage the convergence of traditional broadcast programming with internet delivered video content.
More and more deals of this type are going to be seen in the run up to general purpose TV access to internet video and a company that has an existing search index and links to 4000 years of content, is going to become a hot property ‘ finally.