The e-media institute has put out a report which says that pay TV in Europe’s major countries will jump by 30 million over the next 3 years. That kind of growth isn’t at all surprising, but the weirdest conclusion it has come up with it that it is cable that is to be the largest benefactor, rather than any of the other technologies.
The numbers are spread across the major countries in Western Europe and doesn’t count Eastern and Central European countries, but takes in Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Cyprus, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Great Britain, Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Sweden.
The highest compound annual growth is seen coming in Austria (23.1%), Germany (20.2%), Poland (19.3%) and Switzerland (with 17%) with every other area at 10% growth or under, the lowest being Iceland where it will actually go down, followed by Finland, Ireland and the UK.
Cable is expected to move from 21.6 million subscriber homes to 35.2 million by 2012, in a period where analog pay TV will disappear, DTH satellite will rise from 24 million to 28 million, and IPTV will grow to 15.9 million from 8.4 million today. This report is convinced that cable and satellite together will take up 70% of Western Europe’s pay TV market, with IPTV coming a distant third on 17.6% and Digital Terrestrial Pay TV making up the final 12.2% by then.
This report goes against the traditional view that cable is holding its own or shrinking right now, while DTH is growing in single digit percentages and IPTV in double digit. Pay versions of digital terrestrial have yet to take off in high numbers.
While this is a very valuable report for the mere £38 that it costs, we worry that this is all about linear projections and the rising tide of over the top fixed and mobile video is not being considered here, whereas we see it as a major inhibiting factor going forward that might stop cable in its tracks, which in turn will lead to a European equivalent of TV Everywhere and widespread free internet video.