China to leapfrog broadband world to dominate 1 Gbps connections

At the current trajectory, China will dominate 1 Gbps broadband, giving a massive advantage to Chinese businesses. Around 57% of all 1 Gbps lines by 2023 will be installed in China.

This is according to a new report from Rethink Technology Research, coming out of its Rethink TV Forecasting unit, entitled “US left in China’s wake in the quest for Gigabit broadband – Forecast and Report to 2023”.

The report shows that while the USA will amass 33.5 million 1 Gbps broadband lines by that time, second only to China in number, other countries will reach a higher percentage of their existing broadband customers with 1 Gbps service.

Japan (19.4 million), France (14.8 million) and South Korea (9.5 million) will reach a far greater percentage of their citizens with 1 Gbps service than the US.

Gigabit broadband will accelerate faster than previous forecasts have imagined, growing tenfold over the next 5 years. After a two-year period of being high priced luxuries, 1 Gbps broadband will become commonplace and inexpensive.

1 Gbps broadband will go from 3% to 4% of homes in most countries to well above 30% on average, and in advanced countries such as France, Switzerland and South Korea, more than 50% of households will take 1 Gbps broadband by 2023.

China will improve its broadband monumentally, taking 1 Gbps subscribers from 4% of its 456 million households, to close over 42%, in a series of massive build-outs led by China Mobile.

And as fiber picks up momentum, the window of opportunity is closing for technologies such as Gfast, G.Now and MoCA Access as more buildings opt for fiber direct to the home or apartment. The one exception is DOCSIS 3.1, which is triggering US cable 1 Gbps installations.

The report shows that globally, over the next five years, 1 Gbps lines will rise to make up 31% of all broadband, while if you include fiber at slower speeds, this will be as high as 60% of all broadband.

The report gives insight into which countries already have 1 Gbps Broadband, and why 1 Gbps is becoming a reality at last, and lists all the most aggressive build out markets.

There remains a strong argument that almost no-one currently really needs 1 Gbps quite yet, there have been 1 Gbps fiber services in a number of countries for a number of years, but without gaining a wide uptake.

The emergence of 1 Gbps is being tied by operators to Gigabit class WiFi services, themselves just emerging, able to cope with real world workloads in excess of 1 Gbps.

Today China is already substantially in the lead with 18.8 1 Gbps lines, with France on 4 million, Japan on 3.8 million and the US on 3 million.

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