Europe’s auctions of 2.6GHz licenses are looming, with many due in 2009, and will prove a testing ground for how much spectrum WiMAX backers can secure in the UMTS/LTE heartland. However, operators are still hedging their bets on the amount they invest in the so-called 3G expansion band, since other options are emerging for extending 3G and/or deploying LTE or WiMAX ‘ some of which could prove cheaper.
Most important are the refarming of 900MHz GSM bands for advanced networks, something that many European regulators are now considering (and some, notably France, have approved); and the opening up of analog TV spectrum in the 790Mhz-862MHz range, the European equivalent of the high profile US 700MHz band. Already, UK carriers have persuaded the regulator to delay 2.6GHz auctions until rules for refarming are finalized and they can make a realistic evaluation of the value of the new bands. Now their decision could get more complex as European regulators address 800MHz and the ‘digital dividend’ ‘ but while it may be in the interest of 3G cellcos to postpone new auctions, as they seek to gain return on their existing spectrum investments, delays are bad news for new entrants, especially those wishing to deploy WiMAX but lacking spectrum; and of course for vendors, eager to create a new revenue stream around WiMAX and LTE systems.
Not that the band around 800MHz will be available any time soon ‘ 2011 is the most likely date in most EU territories, as the frequency band plan has not yet been decided, and there will be complicated political challenges in getting broadcasters to vacate the bands quickly as they transition to digital TV. The UK is an exception, since it has a different frequency band for ‘digital dividend’ and will hold its auction next year, not far apart from 2.6GHz. Once the 900MHz issue is clarified, this could give UK cellcos and other providers the opportunity to create a coordinated, multiband approach for their plans in LTE, WiMAX, mobile TV and other potential uses of the new licenses. This integrated approach will be a luxury available to few European bidders, though some newer mobile economies are seeking to create such a situation from scratch, notably India, which is auctioning 3G and 2.5GHz licenses this year and 700MHz in 2009. Ideally, most 3G cellcos would like a mixture of 900MHz and/or 800MHz spectrum for rural coverage and 2.6GHz for urban hotzones.
EU regulators met this week to start the ball rolling in defining rules for a spectrum allocation that will also be eagerly awaited by many treasuries ‘ the US 700MHz auction raised $19.5bn, with a further $750m or more expected from the re-auction of the D Block. At the meeting, of the IMT project team for European standards body CEPT in Paris, two band plan options are likely to be recommended, according to sources questioned by Unstrung, with one each for FDD and TDD modes. Although most cellular systems are currently in FDD mode, TDD is more optimized for data-heavy applications and so operators are increasingly demanding more TDD spectrum ‘ WiMAX is already heavily TDD-oriented, and the LTE community is working on a TDD implementation of that standard, based on Chinese technology.
For the FDD plan, the spectrum is likely to be split into two 30MHz blocks with a 12MHz gap down the middle, but in TDD, there is still debate over whether the channel widths for this unpaired spectrum should be 5MHz or 8MHz in size. The disadvantage of low frequencies – despite their excellent propagation qualities and ability to support large cells for sparsely populated areas ‘ is the small quantity of bandwidth. With just 72MHz available in the EU digital dividend, there is little support for any plan that mixes FDD and TDD together, at least from the incumbent 3G operators (new entrants favor greater flexibility in many cases). The band plans are not likely to be finalized until mid-2009, though carriers hope that the thinking will become clear by the end of this year to aid their business strategies. A common approach across most of Europe (minus the UK) will help with issues like roaming and will promote standardized handsets and economies of scale, keeping operator costs down.