A new study by the folks at Juniper Research finds significant opportunity for WiMAX 802.16e as a DSL substitute technology and estimates that up to 12% of the global DSL base will be substituted by WiMAX by 2013.
Juniper forecasts that the Far East will lead with over one fifth of the 47 million subscribers in 2013.
Juniper’s study looks at the suitability of WiMAX for rapid deployment in underserved areas of both developing and developed countries.
“WiMAX will be an attractive offer in areas where there are no wired networks, and in areas where the existing DSL speed is suboptimal. WiMAX will solve the broadband access problem for users located at the fringes of DSL coverage,” says the report’s author Howard Wilcox. “This is in fact the case in a number of developed nations such as UK, USA, Ireland and Scandinavia, and WiMAX network operators are deploying networks to address this market need.
Additionally in developing countries – such as India -network operators are aiming to provide basic connectivity.” Juniper believes that the vast majority of WiMAX 802.16e trials and network contracts will start by providing fixed broadband. Mobile usage is expected to develop after addressing initial demand for fixed and portable services.
In other highlights, the Juniper report finds that the annual fixed WiMAX global market size will exceed 13 million subscribers by 2013; the WiMAX device market comprising customer premise equipment, chipsets, mini cards and USB dongles will approach $6 billion per annum by 2013.
The top three regions of the Far East, North America and Western Europe will represent over 60% of the $20 billion per annum global WiMAX service revenues by 2013
However, Juniper does not paint a completely rosy picture for WiMAX.
“Brand identification and service differentiation are major marketing challenges facing new WiMAX operators,” says Wilcox. “Many of the existing broadband providers are household names that already have widespread market presence and recognition. WiMAX operators will need to identify and promote their USPs, whilst avoiding entering the market on the basis of price.”
The report – “Fixed WiMAX: Opportunities for ‘Last Mile’ Broadband access, 2008-2013” – offers five year regional forecasts for WiMAX 802.16e as a “local loop” technology with data on subscribers, service revenues and devices as well as deployment tables and case studies.