UK researcher Informa Telecoms and Media reckons that there will be 38.4 million IPTV homes by 2012, which is about half of what one of our partners, Multimedia Research Group (MRG), reckons will happen in its report out three weeks ago, citing more like 72.6 million a full year earlier in 2011.
Informa talks about there being just over 5 million IPTV homes at the end of 2006, while MRG’s count is closer to 13.5 million almost a year later, today. It’s amazing how different two figures, which are meant to be talking about the same thing, can be.
Adam Thomas, media research manager at Informa, says, ‘In the shorter term we are forecasting 10.6 million IPTV households by the end of 2007, double the 2006 figure of 5.3 million. Much of the recent growth has come from service launches by European telcos, although US cablers are also starting to look anxiously over their shoulders at the success of U-Verse and FiOS.’
In 2006 Informa says that IPTV revenues from subscriptions and VOD was less than $1.5 billion and that this will rise to $14.7 billion in 2012, with $13.6 billion from subscriptions, and $1.1 billion from VOD.
Top 5 IPTV Markets in 2012
By Subs (000)
China 6,623
US 4,888
France 4,167
Japan 3,143
Germany 2,559
By Penetration
Hong Kong 46.7%
France 18.1%
Taiwan 14.8%
Singapore 10.5%
Norway 9.6%
By Revs (US$m)
US 3,096
Japan 1,988
France 1,402
Italy 1,078
Germany 904
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Both reports agree that China will lead the IPTV market by subscriber count, and the Informa report points out that Hong Kong will still lead in terms of percentage penetration and the US will remain ahead on revenues. This is the 3rd Informa ITV edition, and provides forecasts for 45 markets worldwide. It’s probably time to do our own report to settle the argument.