DisplaySearch, the specialist screen researcher painted a picture of an industry in constant re-invention as 2008 threatened to be yet another year of ramping TFT LCD supply, with sales of equipment used to make LCD screens jumping by 58% to $13 billion this year, back to the levels of 2004 when virtually every player doubled capacity. These numbers come in its quarterly forecast of LCD panels and their markets.
It seems that no matter how much prices come down in the Display market, there is hunger for more and more displays, notably in TV, but not limited to that area.
According to DisplaySearch Vice President of Manufacturing Research Charles Annis, ‘Despite dramatic module price declines, inventory build-up, lower fab utilization and macroeconomic concerns, only a small percent of the machines scheduled to ship this calendar year for manufacturing equipment are at risk of being delayed.’
DisplaySearch revealed that in July some fabrication plants were not at full capacity but that much of this was seasonal, and LCD panel makers still have aggressive expansion plans in place for 2009.
The researcher says that TFT LCD capacity will rise at a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 4.5 million square meters back in year 2000 and will reach 235 million square meters by 2013. Color Filter capacity is on a similar growth path.
Many production lines which make the older Plasma Display Panels (PDP) which used to drive the flat screen TV market, are now being shut down, with a few notable exceptions, such as Matsushita which is pushing ahead with an enormous new PDP fab. Some players in China including Changhong and Nanjing Huaxian Technologies, are also building new PDP fabs, some with new reduced cost manufacturing processes.
The top five LCD makers are Samsung (presumably this includes its joint venture with Sony), AUO, LG Display, CMO and Sharp, and these are forecast to continue to invest at the highest rates and will increase their total share from 80.5% now to 82.5% in by 2010.
TV panel usage will grow from 38 million square meters in 2008 to over 68 million in 2012, when around 200 million TV sets using LCD will be made ‘ virtually the entire global supply of TV sets.
Korea will account for 40% of total TFT LCD equipment spending; Taiwan, Japan and China will have shares of 37%, 10% and 14%, respectively. Over the next couple of years, Japan will increase the amount it spends on TFT manufacturing equipment as Sharp builds the world’s first Gen 10 fab and IPS Alpha builds a large new Gen 8 fab.