Sales of ultra-mobile devices, larger than an iPhone with full computing but smaller than laptops, are expected to hit 200 million in 2013, up from 10 million units in 2008, according to ABI Research.
According to ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis, “The UMD market will still be small compared to the wireless handset market, but with a forecast revenue of nearly $27 billion in 2013, it will certainly be significant.”
Ultra-mobile3 devices tend to be book-sized units with a full QWERTY keyboard and some storage. They are more powerful than an iPhone in computing capability but smaller than a laptop in size.
They are mainly intended for connecting wirelessly to the Internet and to a wireless home network. Currently they all come with Wi-Fi built in. Some come with cellular connectivity so that right out of the box they can connect to the Internet via the cellcos’ wireless 3G networks. Future units will come with 4G connectivity built-in, either WiMAX or LTE.
They run either Windows or Linux as their operating system. Intel is pushing its new Atom microprocessors for use in them. Their “mother ship” is the Internet, to which they connect wirelessly. Some don’t even have a CD/DVD drive, a la Apple’s MacBook Air.
We think that ABI Research’s forecast is very conservative considering the rapidly changing market situation:
1. High-speed mobile broadband ?? speeds up to 10 Mbps initially ?? is coming quickly. Mobile WiMAX networks will begin coming available in selected markets this year.
2. A plethora of new ultra-mobile devices will come to market over the next 12 to 24 months, spurred by the high-speed wireless 3G and 4G broadband networks that are being built. One or more of them will do for 4G what Apple’s iPhone has done for 3G. Apple’s competitors will be racing to launch 4G UMDs before Apple gets there.
To put the UMD market forecasts into perspective, the 2013 estimate of 200 million shipped devices is roughly the anticipated size of the worldwide laptop PC market.
“As this market enters its rapid growth phase and starts to evolve,” Solis continues, “we will see considerable experimentation with different distribution channels: some will sell direct from the manufacturer, some via retail outlets, and some through mobile operators who will subsidize them to encourage new data plan subscriptions.”