Internet watcher comScore reckons that the last quarter of 2008 was SO bad that even broadband wireless connections went backwards, at least in the US.
This came as part of the results of a study of US Internet usage via mobile PC data cards, which showed that the subscriber base ‘ which previously had been growing strongly ‘ began to decelerate noticeably in Q4 2008. By decelerate we think comScore means that growth was very slow, not that the base got smaller.
comScore reveals that PC data card adoption grew 63% throughout 2008, down from its 157% growth rate in 2007. The Q4 numbers showed market softness with sequential quarterly subscriber growth down to just 5%. Even for the fairly abysmal Q3 it had been 22%.
‘The PC data card market is clearly in the early stages of its adoption curve, with the overall number of subscribers multiplying in the past few years,’ said Serge Matta, comScore senior vice president. ‘That said, we’ve observed a significant deceleration in subscriber growth during Q4 2008 coinciding with the economic downturn, an indication that mobile broadband service may still be seen by many as a luxury rather than a necessity. Now is the time for mobile broadband providers to solidify their market position, because as the economy begins to recover and discretionary spending resumes the market will likely accelerate once again. Verizon appears well-positioned for this eventual resurgence, having gained 2 market share points in the past year.’
What comScore doesn’t reveal is just how many people switched off their dongles and fell off the map, since this is net additions, which we presume are currently live. We think it is unlikely that anyone who has got used to the utility of broadband wireless dongle will actually switch it off, but new subscribers could almost halt.
The study also compared the Internet usage patterns of mobile broadband PC data card users within the general US Internet population, to determine how the availability of mobile broadband affects online time.
The results shows PC data card usage is just a time-shift in Internet consumption, because PC data card users the same amount of time online (89 hours) as typical US Internet users (90 hours). Well that may be true, but spending time online on a train or in an airport probably meant less expenditure on Wi-Fi, and more work done in previously dead time.
PC data card users with both a PC data card and a wireline ISP, spent 25% of online time attached via wireless.
‘That aggregate Internet usage via PC data card is not incremental to standard wireline Internet usage suggests that it’s a valuable convenience feature for many Internet users,’ added Matta. ‘That said, there are also certain segments with PC data cards that do spend additional time online, likely indicating that these segments see PC data card as more of a necessity.