Tesla-backed SpaceX has launched another batch of sixty low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, bringing it up to the minimum viable product level. With 420 units in orbit, it is now able to provide ‘initial operational capacity’ for the top of North America, and initial global coverage in 2021, once it deploys another 800. However, the visibility of these satellites from the ground is beginning to become a problem.
These satellites are very obvious in the night sky, easily as bright as the lights on aircraft, and given that there are plans to install 12,000, and potentially as many as 42,000, one opposing argument is that they interfere with our ability to enjoy the night sky. The launches were covered in the local press of a number of countries in the northern hemisphere, as a chance to spot them overhead, but the press largely missed the fact that this is just the beginning – that our night vistas might never be the same.
When the SpaceX constellation first started being launched, astronomers were quick to say that they would interfere with their research, degrading the ability to study the stars. Other satellite operators said that the sheer number of satellites would become a security risk, making daily operations much more complex, as well as making future space launches more precarious.
A near-miss with a European Space Agency (ESA) satellite, and SpaceX’s lack of communication (perhaps because of its immaturity in the sector; perhaps a leadership culture; perhaps an innocent mistake), seemed proof of the problem.
The risk of creating major debris fields will be especially concerning. Currently, about half of all space debris in orbit comes from a Chinese anti-satellite test in 2007 and an accidental collision between two satellites in 2009 – an inactive Russian unit and one of Iridium’s fleet. The risk has been significantly increased, given India’s anti-satellite weapons test, last year, and the USA’s Space Fence sensor project which hopes to track objects larger than 2cm – around 5x better than the current 10cm capabilities.
There’s a good chance that the NIMBY crowd will turn on SpaceX swiftly, and while normally that crowd’s complaints are quite spurious, the idea that you might soon have difficulty spotting Orion or the Pole Star because of a swirling, blinking, constellation of satellites, is legitimate. So, lobbyists, this is the stick you beat the small-satellite crowd with, which includes Amazon and a bunch of IoT-focused entrants too.
The long-term effect of the constellation, of course, remains to be seen. SpaceX says that they are only visible when they are in perfect alignment with the sun, and there is even a website that lets you find out when you have a chance of seeing them – which reports many ‘failed sightings.’ But with 12,000 extra objects up there, blinking away in the night sky, this is a gripe that SpaceX is going to have to counter, if it wants to become a global broadband player.
A software update has been pushed to the satellites, to address the recent visibility concerns. This will adjust the angle of their solar panels during the orbital raises and parking maneuvers, which should help cut down the glare. However, starting with the ninth batch, there will be physical differences in the satellites, with the newer ones getting ‘sunshades,’ to help. It says a lot about organizational structure and experience that it took SpaceX this long to realize or address the problem.
The seventh batch of satellites now gives SpaceX enough capacity to start testing broadband service delivery in Canada and the northern part of the US. These tests will begin in 2020, and the current target for global tests is 2021, when the install-base reaches around 10% – some 1,200 units.
In typical Elon Musk fashion, news of the beta programs was announced on Twitter. A private test is scheduled for three months, which would then be followed by a public beta in another three months. By that time, it might be clear what has happened to OneWeb, which recently announced Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. In the LEO game, it seems that SpaceX and Amazon have a huge advantage over commercial rivals, because they have much deeper pockets and secondary motivations – broadband for Tesla vehicles, and broadband to drive the Prime ecosystem.
The beta tests should confirm whether SpaceX’s claims of 15ms latency hold true. Being able to provide that sort of service to anywhere with a line-of-sight to the sky is potentially revolutionary, and it is something that fixed-line and mobile operators need to be wary of.
In the fixed-line world, such a service could eventually be the nail in the coffin for wires as a transport medium, pushing such service providers towards using fixed-wireless offerings like Siklu’s. Similarly, the MNOs might find themselves pushed towards their old fixed-line rivals, as valuable partners, because a satellite service has stolen so much of their industrial and business portfolio – which traditionally had to rely on mobile networks but will soon find themselves with new and potentially better options.